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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:07 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
But that would be countercyclical. And the construction is probably expensive now. Diminishing any perceived benefits from low teaser rates.

Exactly, it would be cheaper to look at smoothing across the bottom of a cycle and by pretending it is 'green' it would not be perceived as 'normal' borrowing that one would expect at that stage in a cycle anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:50 pm 
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What infrastructure do we need?

The money to pay for all that infrastructure (+ the interest) always comes out of the tax payers pocket.

It's worth considering the opportunity cost. That Money could have been spent in any number of other areas at the discretion of the tax payer. (Starting a business/Saving for retirement/Developing new skills etc.)


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:27 pm 
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snaps wrote:
What infrastructure do we need?

The money to pay for all that infrastructure (+ the interest) always comes out of the tax payers pocket.

It's worth considering the opportunity cost. That Money could have been spent in any number of other areas at the discretion of the tax payer. (Starting a business/Saving for retirement/Developing new skills etc.)


Couple of Metro lines in Dublin wouldn't hurt. Some other related projects like removing *all* railway level crossings in the Greater Dublin Area.
Build the Dart underground. extend all rail lines where the dart runs to at least 3, ideally 4 tracks instead of the current 2.

Expand the Tom Clarke Bridge to 4 lanes minimum, and fix / expand the roads in the general area.

Build some houses / apartments, albeit not sure if this technically runs under "infrastructure".


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:05 pm 
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Roads cannot be financed from Green Bonds, water and rail yes. Some big ticket items like Metrolink and the new Dublin water pipe (€4bn the pair) will probably have to be kicked off at the bottom of the cycle in a recession and are candidates.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:41 am 
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propertyspire wrote:
tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


Really? You should explain that to the European Commission. I seem to remember voting for Treaties about this but it's hard to keep up. You could get a holiday in Italy out of this 8DD

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-com ... uro-falls/


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:21 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
propertyspire wrote:
tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


Really? You should explain that to the European Commission. I seem to remember voting for Treaties about this but it's hard to keep up. You could get a holiday in Italy out of this 8DD

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-com ... uro-falls/



I think you made my point in the link. No sanction for Italy despite ongoing debt issues. No one realistically expects itsly to pay down the debt


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:12 pm 
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Posts: 231
propertyspire wrote:
Lefournier3 wrote:
propertyspire wrote:
tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


Really? You should explain that to the European Commission. I seem to remember voting for Treaties about this but it's hard to keep up. You could get a holiday in Italy out of this 8DD

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-com ... uro-falls/



I think you made my point in the link. No sanction for Italy despite ongoing debt issues. No one realistically expects itsly to pay down the debt


You may think the European Commission is a toothless tiger (try telling that to a Greek!) but debt reduction does happen.

Quote:
Compared with the fourth quarter of 2017, twelve Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio
at the end of the first quarter of 2018, and sixteen a decrease.
Some even managed a small reduction in nominal amounts of debt, if that interests you.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 4445be272a

Of course, a State which can borrow in its own currency always has the option of printing money to pay off its debts and will never be forced into "austerity" because of its public debt but that game is officially over for countries that joined the Euro. The Italians just don't want to believe it.

Not that we ever had that money-printing luxury in any case. For most of our history we stayed on par with Sterling and when we tried borrowing in punts on a large scale in the 1980s, we found out the hard way how the markets treat those who depend on foreign loans. :cry:


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:55 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:


Not that we ever had that money-printing luxury in any case. For most of our history we stayed on par with Sterling and when we tried borrowing in punts on a large scale in the 1980s, we found out the hard way how the markets treat those who depend on foreign loans. :cry:


Well, Interest payable in 2018 on our large national debt is around the €6bn mark.

In 1993 we owed fuck all (relatively) but we paid a lot more interest on that.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/de ... B7%5D=debt

Quote:
The end-year national debt figures for each of the last five years is as follows:—
1988, £24,611 million;
1989, £24,828 million;
1990, £25,083 million;
1991, £25,391 million;
1992, £26,345 million (provisional outturn).
It is assumed that the reference by the Deputy to mortgage repayment on the national debt relates to interest payments on the national debt. Expenditure by the Exchequer in 1993 on interest on the national debt is estimated at £2,260 million. This estimate includes £52 million in respect of the additional cost in 1993 arising from the devaluation.


£2,260 million was €2.9bn in 1993. 25 years later we pay around twice that but we have a much larger economy and are part of the Eurozone. We were paying over 8% interest only a few years ago on 20 year bonds issued around 1993.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:59 pm 
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ANNUAL REPORT ON PUBLIC DEBT IN IRELAND
https://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/u ... d-2018.pdf

Well worth a read.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:42 pm 
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2Pack wrote:

£2,260 million was €2.9bn in 1993. 25 years later we pay around twice that but we have a much larger economy and are part of the Eurozone. We were paying over 8% interest only a few years ago on 20 year bonds issued around 1993.


Pity there's been 150BN of new debt laid down in the last 10 years. There's literally zero chance of no recession in the next few years. The Pinkshirts/Zanu-FF will act all shocked of course when the IMF come back - blame Brexit, Trump, global warming maybe. Anything but their cowardliness during the banking crisis.

Year Surplus/Deficit Mns
2008 -13,119
2009 -23,467
2010 -53,712
2011 -21,877
2012 -14,114
2013 -11,027
2014 -7,045
2015 -5,014
2016 -1,466
2017 -730


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