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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:42 am 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
Are we not still running a deficit?

Sorry, yes we are, 1.2bn forecast for 2017. I should have written "without running a significant deficit", which is obviously then an opinion rather than a fact.

edit: also, the tax take is reported to be 0.25bn down against estimates as of May.

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3105833

edit #2: still down about the same in June (or July?) but net voted expenditure down by similar amounts.

Source: http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 94654.html

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:10 pm 
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Here are some 2016 GGB/capita figures from Eurostat. I had to compose from two different tables as they only offer GGB/GDP and GGB nominal.

Deficits for Ireland downwards:

Ireland: €323/resident
Slovenia: €355/resident
Portugal: €360/resident
Denmark: €438/resident
Austria: €625/resident
Italy: €673/resident
Finland: €747/resident
Belgium: €977/resident
United Kingdom: €1068/resident
Spain: €1089/resident
France: €1137/resident

For comparison USA is roughly €1400/resident but the Lannisters always pay their debts. :D

Code:
Country   GGB (€m)   Population   GGB/capita (€)
Luxembourg   844.8   576249   1466.0329128554
Sweden   4141.6   9851017   420.4235968733
Germany   23705   82175684   288.4673281211
Malta   101   434403   232.5029983679
Netherlands   2923   16979120   172.1526203949
Greece   1288   10783748   119.4389928251
Czech Republic   1019.3   10553843   96.5809326517
Cyprus   64.4   848319   75.9148386397
Estonia   56.7   1315944   43.0869398698
Lithuania   100.8   2888558   34.8963046614
Bulgaria   15.3   7153784   2.1387282591
Latvia   3.4   1968957   1.726802566
Croatia   -366   4190669   -87.3368906015
Hungary   -2076.4   9830485   -211.22050438
Slovakia   -1361.5   5426252   -250.9098361079
Romania   -5150.5   19760314   -260.648692121
Poland   -10252.8   37967209   -270.0435525824
Ireland   -1525.8   4724720   -322.9397720923
Slovenia   -733.1   2064188   -355.1517594328
Portugal   -3722.4   10341330   -359.9537003461
Denmark   -2498.8   5707251   -437.8290003366
Austria   -5430   8690076   -624.8506917546
Italy   -40809.4   60665551   -672.6947885135
Finland   -4100   5487308   -747.1787623367
Belgium   -11051.6   11311117   -977.0564657761
United Kingdom   -69856.5   65382556   -1068.4271810971
Spain   -50576   46440099   -1089.0588325404
France   -75893   66759950   -1136.8043265461

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:06 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
NegativeEquity wrote:
Are we not still running a deficit?

Sorry, yes we are, 1.2bn forecast for 2017. I should have written "without running a significant deficit", which is obviously then an opinion rather than a fact.


Cheers, though we were still allright, guess the government also forgot when they agreed to public sector pay rises :nin :D

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:10 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
jmc wrote:
So owing over 200B on a real economy of around 150B (maybe), very low net indigenous exports, and with government expenditure accounting for almost half of consumption, is as good a definition of sovereign insolvency as you can get.

In jmc-world Ireland is running a 10bn deficit, so it must look that way. :D

States are solvent until they're not ; there are two equilibrium states. Right now Ireland is in the solvent state. There are a set of circumstances which Ireland could find itself in which would propagate a flip-flop to insolvency, and at that point it would be sacrificed to the gods of Austrian economics in the same way that Greece was. But for now it's very much solvent because it's able to meet it's interest payments without running a deficit. For how many other developed economies is that true?


Ireland is solvent as long as the ECB creates a market for its bonds. The moment Ireland has to return to the open capital markets and has to start paying market rate for non CB capital then it becomes insolvent. Which is currently 6%/7%. Ireland currently pays just over 2% net. Most of Ireland debt is short term so current cheap rollover will end sooner or later. Multiply current interest payments by 2/2.5? How much of the budget is left for other expenditures?

As for the deficit. Nope. You need to revise some basic econometrics re government expenditure. Also known as - How to Lie With Statistics. And have been reading the relevant budget documents for close on 30 years. There is a pattern. In good times and in bad. The deliberate vagueness and obscurity is alwasy a sign that there are things to hide.

Look at the full numbers, voted and un-voted, estimated and actual, over the last five years, and what we have is still a net deficit. Of the magnitude I wrote about. The fact that they have been mucking about with the numbers and format is a deliberate piece of obfuscation. The only important number is when you net out all cashes in versus all cashes out. In the long term all the rest is sleight of hand.

Here something you can try out. Take the Official Estimates for FY 2014. Now look at the final Actual Expenditure FY 2014 numbers. Do the same for 2015. And previous years. Notice a pattern? Also notice how they keep moving stuff around to make it hard to extract final net numbers that can be compared year on year. Now compare and match up with debt balance and issue by government. The obfuscation is deliberate and I stand by my original numbers of how much the deficit is after all above the line expenditure is taken care of.

To me the current accounts when you strip out all the noise look very mid 1980's. The current political debate about the economy is pure 1977.

As I've said before the sense of utter unreality and fantasy in Ireland at the moment is something I have not seen for a long long time. Much worse than 2005/2006. You only have to look at postings like this, and the comments afterward, to get some idea of just how Alice in Wonderland the country currently is.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/08/24/that-26-growth-rate-from-startled-earwigs-to-stars-in-our-eyes/

This is a discussion about national accounts that would never ever happen when discussing the economy of Finland, Denmark or even New Zealand. Even trying to discuss the non-petroleum sectors of the Norway economy would never even begin to reach such levels of economic outlandishness as this discussion by purported serious academic economists. What they are actually discussing is an economy that is no different from Jersey or the Cayman Islands. Only 50/100 times larger. But this fact never seems to have crossed any of their minds.

Ireland is not Greece. But its not Italy either. But to my mind its national accounts are in a far more precarious state than they were in the early to mid 1980's. And we have still to get to a 1987 moment. The country is still in a holding pattern until the other shoe drops. Which it must inevitable do. In these situations you can always predict the what. But never the when.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:26 pm 
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jmc wrote:
In these situations you can always predict the what. But never the when.


So predict it. Outline the series of events that leads to the ECB stopping Irish debt rollover at low rates.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:47 pm 
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tinneym wrote:
jmc wrote:
In these situations you can always predict the what. But never the when.


So predict it. Outline the series of events that leads to the ECB stopping Irish debt rollover at low rates.

Ireland follows Ray Kinsella's advice and follows the UK out of the EU...

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:11 am 
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There's 2 Irish national debt clocks online.

The higher 1 goes up @ around €300 per seconds.
https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland
Now at € 213,733,511,000

The other goes down @ around €100 per second.
http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php
Now at € 182,242,589,000

Which one is (more) correct?


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:57 am 
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jmc wrote:
Most of Ireland debt is short term so current cheap rollover will end sooner or later.


Horse manure!
Average life of Irish government debt is 11 years. For Eurozone countries it is 7 years.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:59 pm 
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Economic recovery repeatedly overstated, warn Finance chiefs
https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/e ... 69659.html

Quote:
Ireland’s economic recovery is still being repeatedly overstated because profits from multinational companies are being included despite the fact the money is immediately transferred to owners in other countries.


Quote:
Speaking during an eight-hour cross-party Dáil Public Accounts Committee (PAC) meeting during which it was also revealed that Ireland’s debt levels amount to €40,000 per person, Department of Finance secretary general, Derek Moran, said GDP is not working for Ireland.

He said the reality is that using GDP to check economic growth is “over-inflating living standards” and wider finances, giving an inaccurate view of the national situation.

“Oh, absolutely. Debt to GDP is a misleading indicator of our position regarding our national indebtedness. You’d be better off looking at GNIStar,” said Mr Moran when asked if the 2016 “leprechaun economics” controversy is still apparent.


Quote:
Department of Finance’s chief economist, John McCarthy, agreed with PAC members who said the issue “sounds like McCreevy economics again” ...


http://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/fundi ... t-profile/

General Government Debt: 200.59Bn(2016) 210.71Bn (2017)


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:52 pm 
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‘Goldilocks’ Irish economy faces numerous threats - NTMA chief - by Peter Hamilton
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3476733

Quote:
“Ireland is still borrowing money just to pay its interest costs,” the chief executive of the country’s debt agency said at an event in Dublin on Friday.


Quote:
“The interest bill is our fourth largest Government expense - after social protection, health and education. It costs €16.5 million per day just to service the interest on our national debt,” he said.



Our public debt levels are still growing, even in the midst of these good times - by Dan O'Brien
https://www.independent.ie/business/world/our-public-debt-levels-are-still-growing-even-in-the-midst-of-these-good-times-36854705.html

Quote:
Last year the Government spent €1,000 million more than it took in, the tenth year of deficit in a row.


Quote:
When civil servants in Frankfurt stop buying bonds and the only purchasers are financiers, it will be much clearer how sustainable public debt levels are .....


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 11:15 am 
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snaps wrote:
Quote:
When civil servants in Frankfurt stop buying bonds and the only purchasers are financiers, it will be much clearer how sustainable public debt levels are .....


So if the ECB owns so many bonds that it's possible Ireland could default on them, the interest the ECB earns on other bonds would need to cover the loss, or other ECB members would need to chip in. Or the ECB would just force Ireland to raise taxes to stupid levels. And eventually force Ireland into another round of austetity. If no one is lending to Ireland that would mean deep cuts to spending. Selling of assets again. Is this really a scenario they will allow to play out?
With regards the bank bailouts, interestingly risk has transferred from private sector (shares etc), to the public (bailout/government bonds), to the ECB balance sheet.
As the ECB balance sheet increases it dilutes creditors wealth/assets. Such a mess but I guess the ECB/Irish government live for the moment.
If other western countries/piigs haven't changed their ways its surely going to be more money printing.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:40 am 
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Government should sell bank shares sooner, not later - NTMA
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0709/977412-ntma-annual-report/

Quote:
While Ireland's debt-to-GDP ratio has almost halved to 68% since 2013, Conor O'Kelly said investors were not interested in that measure "for obvious reasons." 
The role of Ireland's large multi-national sector has reduced the relevance of using GDP as an accurate measure of the economy after annual growth of 26% was recorded for 2015 following a massive revision to the country's stock of capital assets.  
Instead Conor O'Kelly said that with Ireland's stock of debt still rising and among the highest in the euro zone as a percentage of general government revenue, its ability to absorb future shocks would be limited without taking opportunities to pay down debt. 
"We have to recognise just how vulnerable we are in the medium to long term while our debt is still as elevated," he said. 


"While our debt ratios are improving, our total nominal debt is still rising as we continue to borrow to pay interest. This will limit our ability to absorb future shocks and therefore opportunities to pay down debt become even more important," Conor O'Kelly said.
He made his comments as the NTMA launched its annual report for last year and mid-term review for 2018.
The NTMA chief said the Government's position is that it is not a natural holder of bank shares so it is widely accepted in the markets that the Government selling down its shareholdings is a question of "when" and not "if". 
While any decision on what to do with the proceeds from the sale of bank shares is a matter for the Finance Minister, as long as the state is an owner of bank shares, the state has significant exposure to the stock market, he added.
"We have reached a late stage in the current investment and interest rate cycle that has provided such a supportive backdrop for the Irish economy and for the NTMA as the state's debt manager. If the cycle is a 12-hour clock we are around 11 o'clock right now," Mr O'Kelly said.
The NTMA said it expects the country's annual interest bill to fall towards €5 billion in the near term, from €6.1 billion in 2017 and a peak of €7.5 billion in 2014.
It also said the country is benefiting from the fact that investors have reclassified Ireland as closer to the euro zone core than the periphery, reflecting the credibility that Ireland's policymakers have built with market participants. 
But Mr O'Kelly also cautioned that a number of commentators have talked about darker clouds coming on the horizon, which he said may bring Ireland's high stock of debt - which at €213 billion is more than four times its 2007 level - into sharp focus. 


Interesting comments. A few have been getting their statements out there, to cover themselves so nobody can say they weren't warned in advance of any election auctioneering and the usual lobbying for spend and splurge over the coming months and years.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:21 am 
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Our debt has been static (more or less) since 2013. It wobbles around €200bn + or - 5%.

Our debt servicing cost also peaked in 2013 at nearly €8bn, is now below €6bn and will go below €5bn in 2021. Then it stops dropping and probably stabilises. Against that the 'non bankrupt' Ireland of 2007 paid €3bn + to service a then MINISCULE debt in comparison.

Everyone sensible will tell us to reduce that debt stock to preserve their own credibility of course. But it is not a serious problem unlike the health service or the poxy road network beyond the motorways.

People should chillax really. :)

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:20 am 
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I am not convinced @2Pack.

The cost of debt will go back up again in the next down turn. However, instead of being 40Bn in debt we'll be 200Bn in debt (+ or - 5% as you say.)

The reason we came from a position of 40Bn was because of the great work of the NTMA.

The one consolidation now with the 200Bn is that at least the now prices are up again, right?


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:09 am 
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snaps wrote:
The reason we came from a position of 40Bn was because of the great work of the NTMA.

The NTMA intelligently borrow and schedule debt, but choosing to repay debt over spending it on public services is a function of the elected government.

The reason the debt went to 40B was because the government were unsustainably but delightedly taking in 10s of billions a year in taxes generated off the private sector borrowing that was going on. It was paid down at least in part as an attempt by the government to show the doubters abroad that we were being responsible and the party could go on for ever.

Didn't we almost have it all..


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