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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:42 am 
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If the 40 billion from the 80s wasn't reduced, who honestly thinks this 200 billion we have now will ever be reduced?!


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:56 pm 
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Ultimately some of it will have to be called in as pension funds need to pay out. You can run but you can't hide.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:04 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
Ultimately some of it will have to be called in as pension funds need to pay out. You can run but you can't hide.


Not really. The state can keep rolling this over, as long as it's not growing and interest rates are low.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 4:50 pm 
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^^^ Mortgageboy is correct, a 10 year bond is payable in 10 years, not before.

This year it is possible that the government will run a surplus. A tax windfall of €1bn from Corp Tax would have put them in surplus but ye olde HSE deficit of €700m :( then drastically reduced the effect of that windfall and a year end deficit of €200m is now forecast along with a €600m surplus in 2019. A quick divvie from AIB would balance the books as it did 2 years ago.

https://www.rte.ie/news/budget-2019/201 ... 6-donohoe/

€200m is of course better than the forecast 2018 deficit of around €1bn in the budget last year.

Nothing can be called certain, in 2019, thanks to Brexit of course. But budget surpluses do influence bond rates.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:44 pm 
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So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:33 pm 
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tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?


Well, if the Irish health service is as bad as they all say it is, our lifetimes might not be long enough for us to need to worry about it. :wink:

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Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:44 pm 
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The NTMA got off their Green Bond last week , €3bn for 12 years @ 1.3%. The bid cover ratio was notably healthy so another few of these, like one for Metrolink if required, would appear to be quite feasible, especially at those rates. A lot cheaper than a PPP would ever be.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:14 am 
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Back Home with Mammy

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tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:35 am 
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2Pack wrote:
The NTMA got off their Green Bond last week , €3bn for 12 years @ 1.3%. The bid cover ratio was notably healthy so another few of these, like one for Metrolink if required, would appear to be quite feasible, especially at those rates. A lot cheaper than a PPP would ever be.


With money this cheap we should be building way more infrastructure now


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:05 am 
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But that would be countercyclical. And the construction is probably expensive now. Diminishing any perceived benefits from low teaser rates.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:07 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
But that would be countercyclical. And the construction is probably expensive now. Diminishing any perceived benefits from low teaser rates.

Exactly, it would be cheaper to look at smoothing across the bottom of a cycle and by pretending it is 'green' it would not be perceived as 'normal' borrowing that one would expect at that stage in a cycle anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:50 pm 
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What infrastructure do we need?

The money to pay for all that infrastructure (+ the interest) always comes out of the tax payers pocket.

It's worth considering the opportunity cost. That Money could have been spent in any number of other areas at the discretion of the tax payer. (Starting a business/Saving for retirement/Developing new skills etc.)


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:27 pm 
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snaps wrote:
What infrastructure do we need?

The money to pay for all that infrastructure (+ the interest) always comes out of the tax payers pocket.

It's worth considering the opportunity cost. That Money could have been spent in any number of other areas at the discretion of the tax payer. (Starting a business/Saving for retirement/Developing new skills etc.)


Couple of Metro lines in Dublin wouldn't hurt. Some other related projects like removing *all* railway level crossings in the Greater Dublin Area.
Build the Dart underground. extend all rail lines where the dart runs to at least 3, ideally 4 tracks instead of the current 2.

Expand the Tom Clarke Bridge to 4 lanes minimum, and fix / expand the roads in the general area.

Build some houses / apartments, albeit not sure if this technically runs under "infrastructure".


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:05 pm 
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Roads cannot be financed from Green Bonds, water and rail yes. Some big ticket items like Metrolink and the new Dublin water pipe (€4bn the pair) will probably have to be kicked off at the bottom of the cycle in a recession and are candidates.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:41 am 
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Joined: May 21, 2017
Posts: 198
propertyspire wrote:
tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


Really? You should explain that to the European Commission. I seem to remember voting for Treaties about this but it's hard to keep up. You could get a holiday in Italy out of this 8DD

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-com ... uro-falls/


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