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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:21 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
propertyspire wrote:
tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


Really? You should explain that to the European Commission. I seem to remember voting for Treaties about this but it's hard to keep up. You could get a holiday in Italy out of this 8DD

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-com ... uro-falls/



I think you made my point in the link. No sanction for Italy despite ongoing debt issues. No one realistically expects itsly to pay down the debt


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:12 pm 
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Joined: May 21, 2017
Posts: 198
propertyspire wrote:
Lefournier3 wrote:
propertyspire wrote:
tea drinker wrote:
So, allegedly this year we spent (budgeted) more on Health than even Celtic tiger years, and still we spent an extra three quarters of a billion purely by accident?
I can have no confidence in this system, especially when the public health service is so poor, and apparently a poor place to work with lots of overtime etc
If we make an extra billion in corpo tax and just burn through it how will we ever pay down the 200 billion in our lifetime?

Government debt is never going to be paid down. That just doesn't happen. Not even we'll run oil rich countries like Norway pay down debt


Really? You should explain that to the European Commission. I seem to remember voting for Treaties about this but it's hard to keep up. You could get a holiday in Italy out of this 8DD

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/eu-com ... uro-falls/



I think you made my point in the link. No sanction for Italy despite ongoing debt issues. No one realistically expects itsly to pay down the debt


You may think the European Commission is a toothless tiger (try telling that to a Greek!) but debt reduction does happen.

Quote:
Compared with the fourth quarter of 2017, twelve Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio
at the end of the first quarter of 2018, and sixteen a decrease.
Some even managed a small reduction in nominal amounts of debt, if that interests you.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 4445be272a

Of course, a State which can borrow in its own currency always has the option of printing money to pay off its debts and will never be forced into "austerity" because of its public debt but that game is officially over for countries that joined the Euro. The Italians just don't want to believe it.

Not that we ever had that money-printing luxury in any case. For most of our history we stayed on par with Sterling and when we tried borrowing in punts on a large scale in the 1980s, we found out the hard way how the markets treat those who depend on foreign loans. :cry:


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:55 pm 
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Posts: 12059
Lefournier3 wrote:


Not that we ever had that money-printing luxury in any case. For most of our history we stayed on par with Sterling and when we tried borrowing in punts on a large scale in the 1980s, we found out the hard way how the markets treat those who depend on foreign loans. :cry:


Well, Interest payable in 2018 on our large national debt is around the €6bn mark.

In 1993 we owed fuck all (relatively) but we paid a lot more interest on that.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/de ... B7%5D=debt

Quote:
The end-year national debt figures for each of the last five years is as follows:—
1988, £24,611 million;
1989, £24,828 million;
1990, £25,083 million;
1991, £25,391 million;
1992, £26,345 million (provisional outturn).
It is assumed that the reference by the Deputy to mortgage repayment on the national debt relates to interest payments on the national debt. Expenditure by the Exchequer in 1993 on interest on the national debt is estimated at £2,260 million. This estimate includes £52 million in respect of the additional cost in 1993 arising from the devaluation.


£2,260 million was €2.9bn in 1993. 25 years later we pay around twice that but we have a much larger economy and are part of the Eurozone. We were paying over 8% interest only a few years ago on 20 year bonds issued around 1993.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:59 pm 
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Joined: Aug 19, 2011
Posts: 887
ANNUAL REPORT ON PUBLIC DEBT IN IRELAND
https://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/u ... d-2018.pdf

Well worth a read.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:42 pm 
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Joined: Oct 29, 2014
Posts: 115
2Pack wrote:

£2,260 million was €2.9bn in 1993. 25 years later we pay around twice that but we have a much larger economy and are part of the Eurozone. We were paying over 8% interest only a few years ago on 20 year bonds issued around 1993.


Pity there's been 150BN of new debt laid down in the last 10 years. There's literally zero chance of no recession in the next few years. The Pinkshirts/Zanu-FF will act all shocked of course when the IMF come back - blame Brexit, Trump, global warming maybe. Anything but their cowardliness during the banking crisis.

Year Surplus/Deficit Mns
2008 -13,119
2009 -23,467
2010 -53,712
2011 -21,877
2012 -14,114
2013 -11,027
2014 -7,045
2015 -5,014
2016 -1,466
2017 -730


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:28 pm 
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http://www.ntma.ie/news/2018/12/13/ntma ... -for-2019/

€15bn to redeem in 2019 and €13bn is already raised so all remaining debt redemptions in 2019 will be fully funded in a month and the NTMA will then raise €14-16bn towards the exceptionally high 2020 redemptions over the rest of 2019.

The government is expected to fund itself, no borrowing requirement is forecast in 2019 or 2020.

Borrowing is to drop hugely in 2020 itself, around €9bn will be required at most, the lowest amount in many many years.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:30 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
http://www.ntma.ie/news/2018/12/13/ntma-funding-statement-for-2019/

€15bn to redeem in 2019 and €13bn is already raised so all remaining debt redemptions in 2019 will be fully funded in a month and the NTMA will then raise €14-16bn towards the exceptionally high 2020 redemptions over the rest of 2019.

The government is expected to fund itself, no borrowing requirement is forecast in 2019 or 2020.

Borrowing is to drop hugely in 2020 itself, around €9bn will be required at most, the lowest amount in many many years.


At what interest rate will future requirements be borrowed at ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46552147


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:07 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
At what interest rate will future requirements be borrowed at ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46552147

Nobody knows. Even those whose job is it to predict interest rates. You had one job, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:27 pm 
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Interest rates on borrowings will remain where they are today except.

1. In the case of economic shocks (Italy nowadays. possibly Brexit will cause issues here)
2. If the ECB base rate starts to rise, expected in around a years time.

Actually I already suspect that Ireland is fully funded for 2019 bond redemptions but that is not official yet. I am certain we will be by January.

I also think a large cashout from NAMA is being quietly held over to smooth the waters if the Brexit farrago becomes a critical issue and those fucking dopes do crash out in March.

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