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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:28 pm 
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http://www.ntma.ie/news/2018/12/13/ntma ... -for-2019/

€15bn to redeem in 2019 and €13bn is already raised so all remaining debt redemptions in 2019 will be fully funded in a month and the NTMA will then raise €14-16bn towards the exceptionally high 2020 redemptions over the rest of 2019.

The government is expected to fund itself, no borrowing requirement is forecast in 2019 or 2020.

Borrowing is to drop hugely in 2020 itself, around €9bn will be required at most, the lowest amount in many many years.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:30 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
http://www.ntma.ie/news/2018/12/13/ntma-funding-statement-for-2019/

€15bn to redeem in 2019 and €13bn is already raised so all remaining debt redemptions in 2019 will be fully funded in a month and the NTMA will then raise €14-16bn towards the exceptionally high 2020 redemptions over the rest of 2019.

The government is expected to fund itself, no borrowing requirement is forecast in 2019 or 2020.

Borrowing is to drop hugely in 2020 itself, around €9bn will be required at most, the lowest amount in many many years.


At what interest rate will future requirements be borrowed at ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46552147


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:07 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
At what interest rate will future requirements be borrowed at ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46552147

Nobody knows. Even those whose job is it to predict interest rates. You had one job, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:27 pm 
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Interest rates on borrowings will remain where they are today except.

1. In the case of economic shocks (Italy nowadays. possibly Brexit will cause issues here)
2. If the ECB base rate starts to rise, expected in around a years time.

Actually I already suspect that Ireland is fully funded for 2019 bond redemptions but that is not official yet. I am certain we will be by January.

I also think a large cashout from NAMA is being quietly held over to smooth the waters if the Brexit farrago becomes a critical issue and those fucking dopes do crash out in March.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:14 am 
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Good to see
The rules being applied....

Revenue issues tax demand of over €1.6bn to pharma giant Perrigo
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.3738702

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Claim relates to a row over the amount of tax paid on the sale of a stake in a major drug


It's being contested.......and it will be a while before the result is known.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:55 am 
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snaps wrote:
It's being contested.......and it will be a while before the result is known.


Still, it would pay off half our debt due in 2021. :)

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:55 am 
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So the government did balance the books and that makes it two years on the bounce with no increase in debt owing to government expenditure. The NTMA started off the year with more cash than they planned to hold on hand at this point in time.

A number of €100m class capital projects that need final cabinet approval before a tender is finalised, according to expenditure rules, are deliberately being held back pending Brexit.

One such delay is with 3 major roads in Sligo Limerick and Mayo which will not get cabinet approval until after Brexit. I understand that up to 8 capital projects costing a minimum of €100m each are in never never land now.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:51 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Actually I already suspect that Ireland is fully funded for 2019 bond redemptions but that is not official yet. I am certain we will be by January.


I was right, the NTMA started off the year with €15.3bn , the country is forecast to run at a surplus this year and debt redemption is below €15bn in 2019.

We were fully funded for the year upon starting the year, as I suspected a month back.

Then we borrowed around 1/4 of our high 2020 requirements yesterday (which are around €17bn) leaving another €13bn to raise from now to september 2020.

The rate on the €4bn borrowed yesterday was 1.12% for 10 years. Considering the ECB is not buying anymore that is a rather good rate IMO. There is an auction in Feb for another €2bn or a tad more than €2bn perhaps and then nothing more until Brexit settles down some.

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