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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:27 am 
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TheJackal wrote:
1.5kWp: 200 a year savings x 9 14 years = 1,800 2,800 + 1,050 grant = 3,850 installation cost?

I think you had a typo there. It's 14 years payback. That's a long time for something that could break down or become obsolete.

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:59 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
1.5kWp: 200 a year savings x 9 14 years = 1,800 2,800 + 1,050 grant = 3,850 installation cost?

I think you had a typo there. It's 14 years payback. That's a long time for something that could break down or become obsolete.

Well, there's very little to it. The panels are solid state, there some wires that go to the inverter. It's screwed to the roof. The inverter could go, I guess, but it would have to be badly installed to do so. So I think break down is unlikely. As for obsolete, I hemmed and hawwed for 10 years before getting PV, during which the price halved, but the efficiency barely moved. I think the price could drop further, but that's not really obsolesence, that's opportunity cost.

I've had mine for 2 and a half years and have saved about a fifth of the net cost (less home improvement tax rebate), but everything I have is electric and I work from home (so heating is on all the time).

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:14 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
1.5kWp: 200 a year savings x 9 14 years = 1,800 2,800 + 1,050 grant = 3,850 installation cost?

I think you had a typo there. It's 14 years payback. That's a long time for something that could break down or become obsolete.


I think you're looking at it the wrong way, does it really matter if someone makes a better panel with a better efficiency rating, so long as your set up still works who cares

That said if you were sure PV prices were going to fall by a big amount in the next while it might make sense to wait before you buy

Also every time the price of grid electricity rises your 14 year payback gets cut, assuming you paid for the set up in cash, so IMO someone with PV has just paid for their future electricity in advance at a lower fixed rate than everyone else

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:34 pm 
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Since I already have the panels, batteries are the next bit. What's available? And at what cost? I hate the coy thing about prices that everyone on the internet in Ireland does - POA = Price Out of me Arse.

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:52 pm 
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the dude wrote:
Also every time the price of grid electricity rises your 14 year payback gets cut, assuming you paid for the set up in cash, so IMO someone with PV has just paid for their future electricity in advance at a lower fixed rate than everyone else

That's kind of factored in already. The up front money also has a cost. If you cost it at 4% the payback time goes from 14 years to 24 years. But assuming the value of the saved electricity also goes up each year we can offset one against the other.

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:56 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
the dude wrote:
Also every time the price of grid electricity rises your 14 year payback gets cut, assuming you paid for the set up in cash, so IMO someone with PV has just paid for their future electricity in advance at a lower fixed rate than everyone else

That's kind of factored in already. The up front money also has a cost. If you cost it at 4% the payback time goes from 14 years to 24 years. But assuming the value of the saved electricity also goes up each year we can offset one against the other.

Yeah, but where can you get 4% for any duration? Then you have to take the annual savings and carry them forward too, so a saving of 500 euro at 4% at the end of year 1 for 13 years, 500 euro at 4% for 12 years etc. I believe the quoted payback is generally at current prices without the cost of money taken into account.

And what price smug? :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:43 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Yeah, but where can you get 4% for any duration?

You don't have to actually get it. It might be an avoidance of interest on another loan that you could otherwise have paid off.

yoganmahew wrote:
I believe the quoted payback is generally at current prices without the cost of money taken into account.

... which makes sense, as we said, because the value of the payback increases along with the cost of the money.

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:04 am 
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the dude wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
1.5kWp: 200 a year savings x 9 14 years = 1,800 2,800 + 1,050 grant = 3,850 installation cost?

I think you had a typo there. It's 14 years payback. That's a long time for something that could break down or become obsolete.


I think you're looking at it the wrong way, does it really matter if someone makes a better panel with a better efficiency rating, so long as your set up still works who cares

That said if you were sure PV prices were going to fall by a big amount in the next while it might make sense to wait before you buy

Also every time the price of grid electricity rises your 14 year payback gets cut, assuming you paid for the set up in cash, so IMO someone with PV has just paid for their future electricity in advance at a lower fixed rate than everyone else


Ah yes, the famed falling costs of PV. I swear they are the same price since forever for home installations
When they drop to 1/2 there current price ill bite

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 Post subject: Re: Why isn't electricity cheaper?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:25 pm 
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werpen wrote:
Ah yes, the famed falling costs of PV. I swear they are the same price since forever for home installations
When they drop to 1/2 there current price ill bite

Someone (probably Coles2) provided materials costs a good while back. I think they were a lot lower than the typical installation cost. That suggests a classic "Irish" component of the price which is resistant to cuts, especially with SEAI grants to mop up.

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