taipeir wrote:
I think your wrong about electricity not replacing a significant amount of oil use soon.
Depending on definition of soon,certainly within 10 years we should a marked change. Wind is a replacement for oil as it can charge batteries which power cars. Its slightly more complicated than that but not much!
The oil used for light vehicles (i.e. cars) alone is approximately energetically equivalent to all current electricity generation. Countries are struggling to keep up with increasing electricity demand as it is, especially bearing in mind their commitments to decarbonise. The
US EIA's international energy outlook for 2016 estimates that world electricity generation will increase 70% by 2040 ( though only 40% in OECD countries). That's about 2.2% per year. What
additional percentage are you estimating we will add in ten years to current electricity consumption,
on top of the amount needed to cater for increases in non-transport uses? Bear in mind that oil demand is increasing at about 1.6% annually too.
taipeir wrote:
Gas and oil are already abundant from the US, another factor.
Not sure what you're saying here. Oil and LNG exports from the US are a new phenomenon, as crude oil exports were banned until quite recently. Those exports may well increase significantly, but I'm not sure what argument you're making.