@jmc We are living in the Holocene

Eh. And once the current inter-glacial (the Holocene) is over we are back to..the Pleistocene. Most geological epochs are defined by major changes in the flora/ fauna used to establish stratigraphic series over long periods of times. Which is why the big ones tend to aligned with mass extinctions. Or major reconfigs of major land masses. The Pleistocene started with the current series of glaciations. About 3M. B.P. It will end when the current series of glaciations end. In a couple of million years. Give or take. The Holocene epoch was created to give a name to contemporary geological events. In the last 10K years. Just a matter of tidyness. But we are still in the Pleistocene glaciation event. The Holocene is just the placeholder name for the current inter-glacial interval.

To avoid nit pickers the term Quaternary is also used for both epochs but as all the fun geology happened in the Pleistocene thats the term that is generally used for the most important geological event of the last 20M years. Ice. Lots and lots of ice.

It never went away you know, the Pleistocene.

Even if oil is discovered in these deepwater offshore wells when is it ever going to be commercially attractive, even viable, to take the risks of setting up a new offshore pipeline and other supports needed to extract deepwater oil, in this world of cheap abundant oil available at relatively low cost from fracking plus onshore wells?

I think your wrong about electricity not replacing a significant amount of oil use soon.
Depending on definition of soon,certainly within 10 years we should a marked change. Wind is a replacement for oil as it can charge batteries which power cars. Its slightly more complicated than that but not much!

Gas and oil are already abundant from the US, another factor.

The oil used for light vehicles (i.e. cars) alone is approximately energetically equivalent to all current electricity generation. Countries are struggling to keep up with increasing electricity demand as it is, especially bearing in mind their commitments to decarbonise. The US EIA's international energy outlook for 2016 estimates that world electricity generation will increase 70% by 2040 ( though only 40% in OECD countries). That's about 2.2% per year. What additional percentage are you estimating we will add in ten years to current electricity consumption, on top of the amount needed to cater for increases in non-transport uses? Bear in mind that oil demand is increasing at about 1.6% annually too.


Not sure what you're saying here. Oil and LNG exports from the US are a new phenomenon, as crude oil exports were banned until quite recently. Those exports may well increase significantly, but I'm not sure what argument you're making.

Plus there will not be an alternative to HGV diesels for a very long time.

German power producers are poised to pay customers to use electricity this weekend.

Wind generation is forecast to climb to a record on Sunday, creating more output than needed and driving electricity prices below zero, broker data compiled by Bloomberg show. It would be the first time this year that the average price for a whole day is negative, not just for specific hours.

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PARIS, Oct 30 (Reuters) - European spot electricity prices for day-ahead delivery diverged on Monday as forecasts for a sharp decline in wind and solar power generation provided support in Germany despite electricity consumption seen falling due to holidays.

* Electricity production from German wind turbines is expected to tumble further on Tuesday by almost 6 gigawatts (GW) to 10 GW from nearly 40 GW on Saturday, which pushed prices into negative territory.

* Solar power generation will drop by over 1 GW to 2.2 GW, according to Thomson Reuters data.

* The German baseload spot power price for Tuesday delivery gained 2.2 euros to 36.5 euros ($42.46) a megawatt hour (MWh), compared with the price paid on Friday for Monday delivery.

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Germany’s carbon emissions are not declining much, despite renewables increasing to almost 30% of the country’s power mix this year (see figure below), and over 50% of its installed capacity. Unfortunately, coal has also increased to about 30% and, along with power purchases from France and other countries in Europe, is used to load-follow, or buffer, the intermittency of the renewables.

Germany’s carbon emissions per person actually rose slightly in 2013 and 2015. The country produces much more electricity than it needs and is not addressing oil in the transportation sector.

As Peter Rez at Arizona State University discusses, renewables will not make much of a dent in their total carbon emissions. The problem is that even when renewables produce enough energy to supply all of the country’s electricity, the variability of the renewables means Germany has to keep the coal plants running, over half of which use the dirtiest of all coal, lignite.

In fact, in 2016, 7 out of 10 of Europe’s biggest polluters were German lignite power plants.

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The farm has been a beneficiary of “Energiewende,” the German word for energy transition. Over the past two decades, Germany has focused its political will and treasure on a world-leading effort to wean its powerful economy off the traditional energy sources blamed for climate change.

The benefits of the program have not been universally felt, however. A de facto class system has emerged, saddling a group of have-nots with higher electricity bills that help subsidize the installation of solar panels and wind turbines elsewhere.

Germany has spent an estimated 189 billion euros, or about $222 billion, since 2000 on renewable energy subsidies. But emissions have been stuck at roughly 2009 levels, and rose last year, as coal-fired plants fill a void left by Germany’s decision to abandon nuclear power. That has raised questions — and anger — over a program meant to make the country’s power sector greener.
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But renewable energy subsidies are financed through electric bills, meaning that Energiewende is a big part of the reason prices for consumers have doubled since 2000.

These big increases “are absolutely not O.K.,” said Thomas Engelke, team leader for construction and energy at the Federation of German Consumer Organizations, an umbrella organization of consumer groups.

The higher prices have had political consequences.

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"The Czech Republic has long been drawing attention to the problem of unscheduled flows of electricity both in bilateral discussions with representatives of the German government, and at the EU level," Jiri Havlicek, Czech minister for industry and trade, said during the official launch Friday.

"Without the PSTs, international redispatches would be massive and costly," CEPS chariman Jan Kalina said, adding that the investment cost for the project totaled Czech Koruna 1.588 billion (Eur61 million/$72 million).

The main aim of the phase shifters is to prevent disruptive surges of electricity from Germany, mainly caused by wind power production in the north directed to some of the main sources of domestic demand in the south.

The Czech Republic has been threatened in the past with blackouts because of such disruptive surges. Phase shifters are already operating on the Polish side of the joint Polish-German border to deal with similar problems.

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THE GOVERNMENT HAS lost a vote on proposed legislation which would place a ban on fossil fuel exploration off the Irish coast.
The Bill secured the support of 78 TDs, with 48 voting against it. It will now proceed to Committee Stage in the Oireachtas, despite the government’s opposition.
Solidarity-People Before Profit’s Petroleum and Other Minerals Development (Amendment) Climate Emergency Measures Bill aims to stop the issuing of any new licences for the exploration of fossil fuels.
Costa Rica, Belize and France have already implemented similar measures.

http://www.thejournal.ie/fossil-fuels-3839453-Feb2018/



Ah, I remember when PBB used to put up posters about our enormous offshore fossil fuel resources that we could nationalise and pay for everything. Still, times change and no doubt PBP and FF TDs will be fully behind any new onshore wind farm proposals, peat burning power station closures, and restrictions on the use of fossil fuels in transport, fishing, and agriculture.