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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 3:32 pm 
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polaris wrote:
Someone, 7 or 8 pages back, made a convincing argument that owning shares in a number of well run profitable companies was the safest place for your wedge. Have a look for that post.



a lot of punters in Argentina bought shares around the time of the corralito (and cars, furniture etc...)

speaking of which - what's corralito as Gaeilge?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 5:16 pm 
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Joined: May 27, 2009
Posts: 294
McQueen wrote:
If Ireland left the EURO it would happen over a weekend after some kind of behind the scenes deal with Europe. Like you say its not the kind of thing you can have a referendum on as billions would leave the country pre-emptively.

Its easy enough I would guess though to just say that all Irish domiciled accounts now convert to a new "Irish Punto" at a rate of 1:1 and that all debts of Irish domilcied entities are repaid in Punto's at the same exchange rate. Naturally, the new Punto would fall 50% or so on the first day of trading to say 1:0.5 or so. An effective default of sorts with foreign creditors now owning a currency that suddenly collapsed v EUR/USD/GBP etc.
Irish people would have less spending power abroad, but more importantly the country would become instantly competitive again, Tourists would be back, Multinationals would find our workforce cheap again and most beneficially of all Mortgage debts etc would be repayable in a currency that went down in value, while house prices / wages would soon start to rise in that same currency as new life is bred into the country again by the cheap ccy. Negative equity in Punto's would fall versus sitting on growing negative equity in EURO's


OK so we have a new punt which is worth one Euro on Sunday night when this happens. Man in street has an account in a bank in anytown Ireland, his balance, credit or debit is exactly the same. His mortgage is exactly the same.
Come Monday morning when the exchanges open the new punt drops to half a Euro. Within Ireland nothing has changed. The balance that the man in the street has in the bank in the street is the same. Some of these balances are in fact fairly heavy mortgages but no change between borrower and lender, if the lender is an Irish one. So as far as the borrower is concerend no change. The lender though has had to borrow this money from somewhere, presumably abroad, almost certainly in Eoroland and this balance will still be in Euros. The lender now has big problems . He has borrowed x billion Euros but is only getting back half of that. Worse, unless Irish interest rates double he is only going to be getting half the interest in Euros that he had been.
The same thing will apply to anyone who has borrowed abroad. If you have borrowed in any currency your debt will still be denominated in that currency.


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:41 am 
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Location: dublin
can someone tell me why the euro isnt tanking now?

europe will be bailing out greece, portugal, ireland,spain and god knows who else. this means the printing press will be put into overdrive for qEU


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:52 am 
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Is 142+ down to 13470ish since November 4th ( 9 trading days not enough)?

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:00 am 
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In your Scenario Rare Bear thats when you will get Debt forgiveness that the sheep are looking for..

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What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:45 am 
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slasher wrote:
polaris wrote:
Someone, 7 or 8 pages back, made a convincing argument that owning shares in a number of well run profitable companies was the safest place for your wedge. Have a look for that post.



a lot of punters in Argentina bought shares around the time of the corralito (and cars, furniture etc...)

speaking of which - what's corralito as Gaeilge?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito



"Téigh amach as an gáirdín sin! ... agus fág an airgid"

Or in Oirish:

"Gerrowra da gaaarrden ... an paws off de moolah"

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:57 am 
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Posts: 1499
delete

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What condition was the property in for each of the properties you are saying the bottom is in for!


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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:35 am 
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Posts: 134
Which Keytrade Belgium (.com) or switzerland(.ch) - they have different protection...

quotes taken from their websites...

Quote:
belgium
Guarantee
As a Keytrade Bank client, finance company of Belgian right, your assets are protected by the deposits guarantee system for maximum € 100.000 for deposits and maximum € 20.000 for the financial instruments.

What is the deposit guarantee system?
The deposit guarantee system, or Protection fund, intervenes when a credit institution, brokerage firm or other investment company is no longer able to fulfil its obligations to its clients.

What does it mean?
In the event of a bankruptcy, the protection fund offers a dual level of protection:

The first level of protection covers the loss of cash assets held in the form of account deposits (on current, on term, on savings account). The compensation by the Fund for this type of assets is limited to maximum € 100,000 and per client.
The second level of protection comes into effect when a client is no longer able to recover the financial instruments (securities such as shares, bonds, mutual funds, ...) entrusted to the defaulting institution. For this case, the compensation is also subject to maximum € 20,000. But for the financial instruments registered in your name, you should recover them totally without having to call upon the compensation by the Funds.
Click on http://www.protectionfund.be for more information on the Protection fund for deposits and financial instruments.


Quote:
swiss
Reliability and stability

Keytrade Bank Geneva Branch offers all of the guarantees of a bank that is part of one of the world's largest financial groups: the Crédit Agricole Group (total assets of EUR 913 billion and own funds of EUR 66 billion).

In addition, like all banking institutions established in Switzerland, Keytrade Bank Geneva Branch is supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

The depositor protection scheme

Keytrade Bank Geneva Branch is a member of the depositor protection scheme. The depositor protection scheme for banks and securities dealers guarantees payment of these deposits up to CHF 100,000 in the event of bankruptcy or of protective measures being initiated. If the bank concerned does not have sufficient assets to pay out the deposits, the payment is guaranteed by the other banks. The maximum amount that the members of our association are required to contribute is limited to CHF 6 billion.
The "Swiss Banks" and Securities Dealers " Depositor Protection Association" is responsible for overseeing the self-regulation prescribed by the Banking Act for the purpose of protecting the preferential deposits held with the branches of Swiss banks and securities dealers.

By guaranteeing payout of the preferential deposits, the Swiss Banks' and Securities Dealers' Depositor Protection Association plays an important role in protecting creditors. The Association makes a key contribution to the reputation and stability of the Swiss financial centre. More details about the depositor protection scheme can be found with the following link http://www.einlagensicherung.ch/en/bank ... k/home.htm


Last edited by spc100 on Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:40 am 
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spc100 wrote:
Which Keytrad Belgium (.com) or switzerland(.ch) - they have different protection...

quotes taken from their websites...

Quote:
belgium
Guarantee
As a Keytrade Bank client, finance company of Belgian right, your assets are protected by the deposits guarantee system for maximum € 100.000 for deposits and maximum € 20.000 for the financial instruments.

What is the deposit guarantee system?
The deposit guarantee system, or Protection fund, intervenes when a credit institution, brokerage firm or other investment company is no longer able to fulfil its obligations to its clients.

What does it mean?
In the event of a bankruptcy, the protection fund offers a dual level of protection:

The first level of protection covers the loss of cash assets held in the form of account deposits (on current, on term, on savings account). The compensation by the Fund for this type of assets is limited to maximum € 100,000 and per client.
The second level of protection comes into effect when a client is no longer able to recover the financial instruments (securities such as shares, bonds, mutual funds, ...) entrusted to the defaulting institution. For this case, the compensation is also subject to maximum € 20,000. But for the financial instruments registered in your name, you should recover them totally without having to call upon the compensation by the Funds.
Click on http://www.protectionfund.be for more information on the Protection fund for deposits and financial instruments.


Quote:
swiss
Reliability and stability

Keytrade Bank Geneva Branch offers all of the guarantees of a bank that is part of one of the world's largest financial groups: the Crédit Agricole Group (total assets of EUR 913 billion and own funds of EUR 66 billion).

In addition, like all banking institutions established in Switzerland, Keytrade Bank Geneva Branch is supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

The depositor protection scheme

Keytrade Bank Geneva Branch is a member of the depositor protection scheme. The depositor protection scheme for banks and securities dealers guarantees payment of these deposits up to CHF 100,000 in the event of bankruptcy or of protective measures being initiated. If the bank concerned does not have sufficient assets to pay out the deposits, the payment is guaranteed by the other banks. The maximum amount that the members of our association are required to contribute is limited to CHF 6 billion.
The "Swiss Banks" and Securities Dealers " Depositor Protection Association" is responsible for overseeing the self-regulation prescribed by the Banking Act for the purpose of protecting the preferential deposits held with the branches of Swiss banks and securities dealers.

By guaranteeing payout of the preferential deposits, the Swiss Banks' and Securities Dealers' Depositor Protection Association plays an important role in protecting creditors. The Association makes a key contribution to the reputation and stability of the Swiss financial centre. More details about the depositor protection scheme can be found with the following link http://www.einlagensicherung.ch/en/bank ... k/home.htm

So EUR100k from the Belgium government or EUR80k (CHF100k) from pooled self insurance by the Swiss banking industry.

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 Post subject: Re: Eur Wedge On De Edge
PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:50 am 
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Joined: May 27, 2009
Posts: 294
FAUGH45568 wrote:
In your Scenario Rare Bear thats when you will get Debt forgiveness that the sheep are looking for..

In that scenario the banks are even more screwed than now, someone else will inherit the mortgages and screw as much as possible out of the borrowers.


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