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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:42 pm 
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Quote:
Italy's maverick 5-Star Movement should cut ties with the anti-European Union UK Independence Party (UKIP) and consider hooking up with the Liberals in the European Parliament, 5-Star founder Beppe Grillo said on Sunday.

If the surprise switch goes ahead, it would see 5-Star enter mainstream European politics and move away from the anti-system fringes, a shift that might reassure other EU capitals that have grown uneasy about its rising popularity.

Writing on his blog, Grillo said his party was in talks with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and asked 5-Star members to back the initiative in an online ballot.

ALDE is headed by former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt. He is a keen European federalist and his strong, pro-EU views would seem at odds with the eurosceptic 5-Star, which has previously ridiculed the liberal leader.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy- ... 4S0HG?il=0

UKip are essentially Britain First, they're not actually interested in EU reform and if they are it's that the EU must align to Britain's whims. I actually had an amusing encounter with a couple of Brexit pensioners who thought the Irish republic was still part of the UK! These people vote!

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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:22 am 
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So Bepe has come out and said he wants to see 5* leave the eurosceptic block and reiterated his view that while 5* wants the lira back, it doesn't want to leave the EU. TAE, along with many US commentators, is unable to distinguish between the two (one of the reasons I stopped reading was the change of personnel resulted in heightened ignorance of the rest of the world and comi-tragic imposed views).

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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:20 pm 
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Barney Gumble wrote:
Looking at the video, you'd have to say that the Italian comedy scene isn't in great shape either.


Seemed like good, sharp intelligent comedy to me.

I guess you weren't a Bill Hicks fan either.


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:37 pm 
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soma wrote:
Seemed like good, sharp intelligent comedy to me.

Interesting that you used three adjectives to describe it, but 'funny' was not one of them.
soma wrote:
I guess you weren't a Bill Hicks fan either.

Before my time. I'm more into the modern giants of comedy - Brendan O'Carroll, Adam Sandler etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:20 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... sles-cases

Quote:
Italy's Five Star Movement blamed for surge in measles cases
Italian health official makes accusation against populist party, which proposed anti-vaccination law in 2015

An Italian health official has blamed an alarming rise in measles cases on the populist Five Star Movement (M5S), which has campaigned on an anti-vaccination platform and has repeated discredited links between vaccinations and autism.

According to the health ministry, more than 700 cases of the highly contagious disease have been registered so far in 2017, compared with 220 for the same period last year and 844 in the whole of 2016.


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:15 pm 
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Italy's President Paves Way for National Elections in Early 2018 - -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... early-2018

Quote:
Mattarella is likely to sign a decree to dissolve parliament between Dec. 27 and Dec. 29, according to a state official who could not be named discussing confidential matters. A general election would take place most likely on March 4 or March 11, the official added, with the date to be decided by the government of Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni.
Italy may face political turbulence after the ballot as opinion polls currently show the anti-establishment Five Star Movement ahead of the ruling Democratic Party and of a possible center-right coalition. None of the three would win a parliamentary majority, according to the latest surveys.
<snip>
Ignazio Visco, governor of the Bank of Italy, testified before a parliamentary investigation into banking difficulties that then-premier Renzi spoke to him twice about Banca Etruria, the first time in 2014. The second time, Visco said, he told Renzi that he could discuss supervision and troubled banks only with the finance minister.
<snip>
Amid accusations of lax oversight, the hearings are an attempt to understand how the state ended up having to pump billions of aid into lenders, including 5.4 billion euros ($6.4 billion) to recapitalize Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA after a failed market attempt. But with the election near, they have become a platform for politicians to exploit public anger.

there is more



Image


Berlusconi Is $2 Billion Richer as Political Fortunes Revive - -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-comeback

Silvio Berlusconi set to return to Italian politics after Sicilian election victory - -> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... on-victory


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:36 pm 
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Posts: 4717
catbear wrote:
UKip are essentially Britain First


Do you mean that literally, or just that
catbear wrote:
they're not actually interested in EU reform and if they are it's that the EU must align to Britain's whims
, like the Donald's weird shit "America first" inaugural speech?

Britain First would give the majority of UKIP's voters at least some pause for thought and would genuinely revolt a minority of them (the anarcho-capitalist libertarian wing). They're basically just an even more dysfunctional BNP revenant. It's like the difference between Fidesz and Jobbik in Hungary or (much of) the AfD and the NPD in Germany. None of them are desirable members of the political establishment, they're all deluded and there's certainly some overlap in ideas and probably membership, but in each case, only one group are actually violent white supremacist thugs as part of the job description.

Edit: Apologies for the zombie (revenant? :lol: ) reply, I didn't see that your post long predated the latest ones. :oops:

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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:28 am 
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Unicredit's Non-Performing Loans - deteriorating again, but you wouldn't know it from the publicity - -> https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/14 ... -publicity

Quote:
Unicredit gave a "Capital Markets Day" in London on 12/12/17 and what an upbeat event it was, accompanied by a slidedeck full of green ticks and words like "signed" and "completed", whatever those words actually mean, and probably a lot less than they were meant to signify.

What was shocking, though, was the way Non-Performing Loans were dealt with on slide 14 of the deck, which showed them as:
  • nearly €3 bn less than a year ago, by comparing the levels at 30/9/16 and 30/9/17;
  • forecast to rise slightly by the end of 2019.

By selecting the dates of 30th September as the basis for comparison, the slidedeck conveniently glossed over that:
  • Unicredit took "one-off" specific write-downs on its Non-Performing Loans of €8.0 bn in Q4 2016 (PORTO and FINO)
  • NPLs dropped by €9.2 bn from €25.2 bn to €16.0 bn in Q4 2016
  • Unicredit raised €13.0 bn in Q1 2017 as a rights issue on the strength of the contention that the write-down of NPLs had been a "one-off" charge

A proper comparison would have inserted the status as at 31/12/16, and drawn attention to the writedowns in Q4 2016:

there is more


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:07 am 
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Quote:
Italy election: Early exit polls point to hung parliament

Correspondents say it is hard to say who will come out on top.

Early exit polls suggest a hung parliament is likely, and that ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right coalition is set to win the most seats.

The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement is in second place according to the exit polls, and looks likely to be the largest single party.

The centre-right bloc includes Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia (Go Italy!) party, the eurosceptic League, and Brothers of Italy. Initial projections suggest it will not get the absolute majority required to govern.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43272700

Roughly 30% for 5 star. It must be around 40% for parties that would advocate an Italian exit from the Eurozone.


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:42 am 
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Epicurus wrote:
Roughly 30% for 5 star. It must be around 40% for parties that would advocate an Italian exit from the Eurozone.

5Star dropped their Euro-Exit threat a year ago so what's the point of leaving the EU and maintaining the Euro?

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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:38 pm 
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http://www.euronews.com/2018/03/13/ital ... parliament

Quote:
Italian right-wing leader Matteo Salvini denounced the European Union as “destroyers” for policies he said robbed citizens of the right to hope, a week after his League party became parliament’s second-biggest in a national election.

Speaking to reporters at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, he said that if he succeeds in heading a government in Italy he would prioritise renegotiating treaties including on budget restrictions, banking and trade.

The three percent deficit limit “is one of those rules, written around a table, which we are happy to respect if they help people live better", Salvini said.

"But if in the name of those constraints we have to fire, close and destabilize, no.”

During the election campaign, the League was the only large party to say explicitly it only wanted to remain within the EU if fiscal and immigration rules were re-written.

In Strasbourg, Salvini said that the process of deporting immigrants has been a joke so far and had to be expedited.

The Italian election ended in political gridlock, with Salvini jockeying for power with the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, which emerged as the single largest party.


Strands of Syriza by the sound of it.

I thought non-EU immigration was each individual member state responsibility?

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:38 pm 
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catbear wrote:

I thought non-EU immigration was each individual member state responsibility?



Did you not read the fine print where Merkel can make a decision and every other state has to obey ?


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 8:39 am 
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Serious constitutional issues in Italy, with a potential snap election.
President objects to a eurosceptic government being created, against the wishes of the people.
Euro woes to continue


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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 6:24 pm 
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Italians can have any government they want, except a Eurosceptic one.

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 Post subject: Re: Italy's Downward Spiral Accelerates
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 6:58 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... ainst-euro
Quote:
Italy risks careening into a new financial crisis after the Bank of Italy said the country’s leaders could not “disregard” financial constraints and its commitments to Brussels.

Escalating worries that Italians may be poised to take a tougher stand against the euro prompted a round of accusations and finger-pointing among EU officials, including a rare admonishment by Donald Tusk, the European council president, who said EU institutions needed to show “respect to voters” in Italy.

“We are there to serve them, not to lecture them,” Tusk said after the German budget commissioner, Günther Oettinger, had suggested the market turmoil in Italy would show voters the dangers of supporting populists.

Ignazio Visco, the Bank of Italy chairman, said the country was at risk of losing the “asset of trust” with investors. On Tuesday the Italian bond spread, a leading indicator of investor concern, rose to its highest level in four years.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rkets-wrap
Quote:
U.S. stocks tumbled the most in a month, joining a global equity selloff sparked by concern Italy’s political woes will destabilize Europe. Treasuries surged, oil plunged and the yen rallied.

Selling in American equities picked up pace after European shares closed with the worst drop since March. Bank shares paced the rout as the 10-year Treasury yield sank 11 basis points. The dollar climbed as the euro plunged to its lowest since July 2017. Stock volatility soared and investors sought haven assets from the yen to the Swiss franc.

The prospect that Italy might need a fresh election that could be a referendum on the nation’s inclusion in the euro zone rattled global financial markets. While U.S. assets looked like they’d avoid the worst of the selling, the risk-off tone gripped investors as Europe staggered to an ugly close. Investors are also keeping an eye on geopolitical issues, with the Trump administration giving conflicting signals on talks with North Korea and plowing ahead with plans for tariffs on Chinese goods.


Perhaps another perfect storm brewing. Aren't we due another massive crisis about now?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/417531 ... ck-holders
Quote:
The latest Berkshire’s shareholders’ annual meeting extravaganza held on May 5 attracted the usual media scrum with lots of hopeful hype about stock returns looking forward. The inconvenient truth, however, is that on every metric, including Buffett’s self-named favorite valuation tool – being the total market capitalization of US stocks divided by US GDP (shown below since 1950) – stocks are screaming capital loss prospects, higher than in 2008 and nearly as high as the tech bubble top in 2000. See Jesse Felder’s article Buffett thinks bonds are a terrible investment, but stocks look even worse.


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