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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:56 pm 
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20/6/18: Irish Labour Force Participation Rate: Persistency of a Problem

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/ ... ation.html

Quote:
despite low and falling unemployment, Irish labour force participation rate remains at the lows established at the start of 2010 and is not trending up. In fact, seasonal volatility in the PR has increased on recent years (since 1Q 2016), while the overall average levels remain basically unchanged, sitting at the lowest levels since the start of the millennium.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:15 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
20/6/18: Irish Labour Force Participation Rate: Persistency of a Problem

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/ ... ation.html

Quote:
despite low and falling unemployment, Irish labour force participation rate remains at the lows established at the start of 2010 and is not trending up. In fact, seasonal volatility in the PR has increased on recent years (since 1Q 2016), while the overall average levels remain basically unchanged, sitting at the lowest levels since the start of the millennium.

Segmented labour force, too many living in rural areas, not enough women in the labour force
Those with high participation rates generally have a high participation rate for women

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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:48 am 
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June 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in June 2018 was 219,300, down -4,800 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Jun 2008 when it was 213,200.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... rjune2018/

There were 45,988 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in June 2018 which represents 20.2% of the total Live Register (was 56,337 in June 2017 or 21.0%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
May 2018 was 54,337 (May 2017 was 58,204)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 11.6%
[219,300 (June 2018)+ 54,337 (May 2018)/ 2,353,400 per Labour Force Survey Q1 2018]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:41 am 
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Location: Dublin
Thanks Jackal.

Wow - those numbers are really falling, proportionately, quite fast now. Both the Live Register and Activation scheme numbers.

Thanks for always providing the info. It’s appreciated.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:27 pm 
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30/7/18: Broader Unemployment vs Official Unemployment: Ireland

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2018/ ... icial.html

Quote:
while the official unemployment readings are showing a very robust recovery, broader measures of unemployment continue to trend in line with the economy still carrying the hefty legacy of the recent crises.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:13 pm 
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July 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in July 2018 was 217,700, down -2,200 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Jun 2008 when it was 213,200.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... rjuly2018/

There were 45,145 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in July 2018 which represents 19.3% of the total Live Register (was 55,247 in July 2017 or 20.1%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
June 2018 was 49,005 (June 2017 was 53,279)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 11.3%
[217,700 (July 2018)+ 49,005 (June 2018)/ 2,353,400 per Labour Force Survey Q1 2018]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:57 pm 
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broad jobless rate stood at 14.5% 12 months ago, it is now 11.3%

- does that represent a real (~20%) drop in the burden on the exchequer?


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:58 pm 
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owenm wrote:
broad jobless rate stood at 14.5% 12 months ago, it is now 11.3%

- does that represent a real (~20%) drop in the burden on the exchequer?


Probably not


Working age income supplement has reduced by ~40% since 2012 - 6billiont to 3.4billion

https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/so ... tion/2018/

- good website to see where your money is wasted

Pensions spending are up by a billion since 2012 - 6 to 7 billion

Disability etc are up a lot too since 2012 by 33% or 500 million , seriously WTF

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An increase in the number of paupers does not broaden the market. M. Kalecki


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:31 pm 
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Labour force Survey Q2 2018 stats are out
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... rter22018/

As of Q3 2017 the QNHS has been revised and will now be called the Labour force Survey (LFS)
https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre ... veyq22018/
Further revisions took place in Q1 2018
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... rter12018/

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:13 pm 
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August 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in August 2018 was 209,900, down -6,800 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since May 2008 when it was 204,900.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ugust2018/

There were 43,594 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in August 2018 which represents 19.4% of the total Live Register (was 53,643 in August 2017 or 20.3%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
July 2018 was 48,502 (July 2017 was 51,920)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.8%
[209,900 (August 2018) + 49,502 (July 2018)/ 2,399,300 per Labour Force Survey Q2 2018]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:58 am 
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A fall of 6,800 in a month is a very likely a statistical quirk related to the seasonal adjustment process.

It can be due to things like the number of weeks in a month. I suspect it is due to part-time teachers signing off in August rather than September this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:56 pm 
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September 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in August 2018 was 212,600, up +1,600 monthly.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ember2018/

There were 42,124 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in September 2018 which represents 20.5% of the total Live Register (was 51,992 in September 2017 or 21.3%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
August 2018 was 48,339. August 2017 was 51,065

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.9%
[212,600 (September 2018) + 48,339 (August 2018)/ 2,399,300 per Labour Force Survey Q2 2018]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:44 pm 
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October 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in October 2018 was 210,700, up -1,700 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since May 2008 when it was 204,900.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... tober2018/

There were 41,653 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in October 2018 which represents 20.9% of the total Live Register (was 51,290 in October 2017 or 21.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
September 2018 was 53,308. September 2017 was 57,633

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 11.0%
[210,700 (October 2018) + 53,308 (September 2018)/ 2,399,300 per Labour Force Survey Q2 2018]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:05 pm 
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Labour Force Survey Households and Family Units
Quarter 2 2012 - Quarter 2 2018

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... itsq22018/

10.2% of persons under 60 living in jobless households in Q2 2018

9.5% of persons aged 18-59 living in jobless households


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:29 pm 
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The Labour Force Survey Q3 2018 results are out today

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... rter32018/

I'll post some analysis later but interesting to see that while numbers in the Labour Force and Employment are at new highs, Unemployment seems to be levelling out:

Q4 2017: 6.1% (of which 2.5% long term unemployed)
Q1 2018: 5.7% (of which 2.1% long term unemployed)
Q2 2018: 6.0% (of which 2.0% long term unemployed)
Q3 2018: 6.0% (of which 2.1% long term unemployed)


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