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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:39 pm 
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Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
First of all, TheJackal, I do appreciate you taking the time to track these numbers and post.

Numbers like 6.4% seem low, getting back on track to where things were in boom-times (without the preponderance of construction work we had at that time though?). But, the broader jobless figure of 15.1% seems high (albeit lower than an equivalent of 20.5 March 2015 for example, again, thank you for posting the data so consistently).

What's your, or others', view: do we have "low unemployment" now?


I would like to see the black spots, where the unemployment really is a problem and why.
In Poland in big cities unemployment is below 3%, but on the country side there is plenty of black spots with 10% or more.. probably a lot of illegal employment.

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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:48 pm 
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Employment has kind of grown as much as expected over the last few years.

Unemployment has fallen a lot more than expected.

Why?

The reason is that unemployment =(seeking employment)/(seeking employment + in employment)

Please note - the denominator is those in or seeking employment - not the population as a whole!!!!

Usually, when employment grows in Ireland the number of people seeking employment grows too. Students don't stay in education as long, people retire later, parents of young children seek part time work, etc.

Interestingly, this has not happened this time. Participation took a big dip in 2008-11 but has barely grown since. So unemployment looks a bit lower than it otherwise might.



Otherwise, unemployment in Ireland is actually now on the low side (slightly). If you look at the longest time series available - the OECD's - unemployment has averaged I think something like 7% - 8% in Ireland since the 60s.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:24 pm 
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Census: Limerick has highest number of unemployment blackspots

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0615/882979-census/

Quote:
The Census also found that the percentage of people who declared themselves unemployed was 12.9% for the country as a whole - twice as high as the official Live Register numbers suggest.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:27 pm 
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pensioners run this place ;/

I think that there was an article in Irish Times few months ago with VHI crying that we need a reform to cope with huge number of old people and low insurance participation rate among young ones.

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For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:12 pm 
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temene wrote:
Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
First of all, TheJackal, I do appreciate you taking the time to track these numbers and post.
Numbers like 6.4% seem low, getting back on track to where things were in boom-times (without the preponderance of construction work we had at that time though?). But, the broader jobless figure of 15.1% seems high (albeit lower than an equivalent of 20.5 March 2015 for example, again, thank you for posting the data so consistently).
What's your, or others', view: do we have "low unemployment" now?

Course not. As pointed out
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.1%
[264,700 (May 2017)+ 66,759 (April 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q1 2017]

Thank you for a profoundly and uncommonly useless post.
It's also a funny one, since it seems to say I haven't read the earlier posts, while also clearly demonstrating your own failure or inability to read.

As I had already pointed out, I'd read the earlier post, which I'd thanked for. I'd also demonstrated that I read it as I specifically referenced the figure:
Col. Max Pyatnitski wrote:
But, the broader jobless figure of 15.1% seems high (albeit lower than an equivalent of 20.5 March 2015 for example, again, thank you for posting the data so consistently).

What's your, or others', view: do we have "low unemployment" now?

after which you just parrot the same post I've clearly read :lol:

I also went back through the thread to get a better sense of the trend. The headline unemployment number is clearly down, but the broad figure isn't as easy for me to interpret, nor is at as well documented in this thread. It's also not a figure that's typically discussed much, so it's harder to have a sense of what "normal", "high", "low" etc., are.

Anyway, thanks others for further discussion, and TheJackal for further stats (and sources of stats) to dig into...


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:35 pm 
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June 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in june 2017 was 6.3% or 139,400, a monthly drop of -0.1% or -900.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 6.1%
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... tjune2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in June 2017 was 259,200, down -4,800 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... rjune2017/

There were 56,337 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in June 2017 which represents 21.0% of the total Live Register (was 63,712 in June 2016 or 20.2%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
May 2017 was 58,226 (May 2016 was 70,040)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 14.5%
[259,200 (June 2017)+ 58,226 (May 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q1 2017]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:31 pm 
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What has really been staggering is the fall in the number of long-term unemployed (>1 year). This peaked at 200k in 2012. I never thought that more than half this number would work again. Lengthy disengagement from the workplace is really damaging. Skills get lost and the psychological harm can be severe too.

To the surprise of most this number has now fallen over 60% to below 80k and is actually falling faster than the number of short-term unemployed.

At some point this will have to tail off as you get close to the really de-skilled and discouraged workers. But the trend is really encouraging.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:17 am 
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It would be interesting to see just how many of the "long term" unemployed actually returned to work, as opposed to emigrating, retiring or being moved onto another list.

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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:29 am 
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dolanbaker wrote:
It would be interesting to see just how many of the "long term" unemployed actually returned to work, as opposed to emigrating, retiring or being moved onto another list.


Exactly. I suspect going on Disability for say depression with no job takes you off the long term list.

Many new grads stuck it out for a year, couldn't live off the under 26 lower dole payment, and emigrated


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:40 pm 
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July 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in July 2017 was 6.4% or 141,100, a monthly rise of +0.1% or +1,200.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... tjuly2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in July 2017 was 256,800, down -3,000 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Sep 2008 when it was 245,900.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... rjuly2017/

There were 55,247 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in July 2017 which represents 20.1% of the total Live Register (was 62,712 in July 2016 or 19.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
June 2017 was 53,279 (June 2016 was 62,517)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 14.1%
[256,800 (July 2017)+ 53,279 (June 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:27 pm 
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Thanks for the numbers.

Great to see the Activation numbers down significantly on 12-18 months ago.
It's such a way to hide unemployment. It'll never go to zero, but the closer that number gets to 35-40k over next year or two the better.

Do you think we'll get to a Broad Jobless Rate of under 10%?
That'd be best case for Ireland I'd say. Below that there's a lot of Can't Work / Won't Work and the unemployed in their 50s/60s?


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:43 pm 
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FTBer wrote:
Thanks for the numbers.

Great to see the Activation numbers down significantly on 12-18 months ago.
It's such a way to hide unemployment. It'll never go to zero, but the closer that number gets to 35-40k over next year or two the better.

Do you think we'll get to a Broad Jobless Rate of under 10%?
That'd be best case for Ireland I'd say. Below that there's a lot of Can't Work / Won't Work and the unemployed in their 50s/60s?


I'd say we'll get below the 10% but not by much.

There is also damning evidence that the majority of those on Activation courses are not getting proper jobs afterwards
Quote:
http://www.finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_ne ... n-2016-799

There were over 18,000 in Back to Education courses in March 2017 and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in a 2015 research report said the scheme was in effect useless as there was no evidence of improved employment outcomes for recipients. Some recipients had been on courses for up to six years.

The damning conclusion of the researchers on the second biggest activation programme was:

In fact, compared to similarly unemployed individuals, jobseekers who commenced an education course supported by the BTEA programme in September/October 2008 were between 23 and 38 percentage points less likely to have exited unemployment to a job by June 2012, and between 14 and 29 percentage points less likely at the same time in 2014.

In 2015 outside of the June-September period, the typical number of recipients was 24,000. Even though officially classified as unemployed they were not included in official unemployment data.

The report said that in response to the unemployment crisis, which evolved from the recession, the Department of Social Protection (DSP) increased its expenditure on its Working Age Employment Supports schemes, which comprise a suite of activation programmes aimed at assisting social welfare recipients to progress into employment.

Examples include the Community Employment (CE) scheme, JobBridge, the Back to Education Allowance (BTEA) and the Back to Work Enterprise Allowance. Between 2007 and 2012, expenditure on these programmes rose by 48%. However, the DSP’s spending on the BTEA scheme more than trebled, increasing from €64.1m to €199.5m, while the number of recipients quadrupled, growing from approximately 6,000 to almost 25,000. In terms of total expenditure, the BTEA scheme represents the second largest activation measure in Ireland, second only to the CE scheme.

The report said that there is little doubt that schemes which support access to education, like the BTEA, are a vital component of any life-long learning strategy. "Nevertheless, the evidence presented in this report, which is consistent with the findings from past reviews of the programme, raises concerns about the effectiveness of the BTEA in assisting jobseekers to transition from unemployment to employment. There is evidence that the BTEA scheme was successful in redirecting participants to further study or training. However, the scheme does not appear to be effective in terms of its core goal of assisting the unemployed to transition to employment. Furthermore, there is some concern around the degree of progression into higher level study for those BTEA participants that go this route of continued education."

AnCo (founded in 1967) and succeeded by FÁS (Foras Áiseanna Saothair) from 1988, were public agencies that over past decades gave good business to private trainers but the they were unfit for purpose.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:13 am 
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The CE scheme is basically a covert subsidy to all sorts of community groups and charities up and down the country as it provides them with free labour.

BTEA is an extraordinarily generous scheme where a 21 year old can get dole with no conditions and pursue a four year degree course. It is also a covert subsidy to the universities and ITs. I know first hand of three people 'strategically' taking up a spell of unemployment in order to qualify, although the spell of unemployment has to be a bit longer now than it used to be.


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 9:45 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
The CE scheme is basically a covert subsidy to all sorts of community groups and charities up and down the country as it provides them with free labour.

BTEA is an extraordinarily generous scheme where a 21 year old can get dole with no conditions and pursue a four year degree course. It is also a covert subsidy to the universities and ITs. I know first hand of three people 'strategically' taking up a spell of unemployment in order to qualify, although the spell of unemployment has to be a bit longer now than it used to be.


I'd a housemate who worked full time for min wage in Specsavers 2 years ago. Got 17K (I nearly fell over when I saw her contract), 20 days leave, full 35 hour week.

By going unemployed for 9 months she would be entitled to full dole for 4 years of her degree, degree also fully paid for, and rent allowance...


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 Post subject: Re: Unemployment rises to 14.9%
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:06 pm 
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August 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in August 2017 was 6.4% or 139,100, a monthly rise of -0.1% or -1,700.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ugust2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in August 2017 was 248,500, down -7,300 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Sep 2008 when it was 245,900.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ugust2017/

There were 53,643 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in August 2017 which represents 20.3% of the total Live Register (was 61,346 in July 2016 or 19.4%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
July 2017 was 52,607 (July 2016 was 53,279)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 13.7%
[248,500 (August 2017)+ 52,607 (July 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


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