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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:13 am 
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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:27 am 
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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:22 am 
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Is there an overlay for interest rates to go with that chart?

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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:47 am 
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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:15 am 
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Thanks.

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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:25 am 
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Fairly sizeable jump from 1.1% in December to 1.8% in Jan in the Eurozone. But so called core inflation still at 0.9%.

So at what point do ECB raise rates? Overall inflation over 2% for say three consecutive months or core inflation near 2%?


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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:49 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:53 pm 
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@fwred a good follow. Frederik Ducrozet - Market Economist, ECB Watcher

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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:08 pm 
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It's a year and a half since anyone posted on the Central Bank forum, apart from the National Debt thread (i.e. about fiscal policy) and the "Giz a Job..." thread.

I'm sure Pinsters know that monetary policy is what makes the property world go round so we should keep our eye on the ball. Trump is trying to bully the Fed but it looks like they will ignore him and keep going i.e. from zero to 3.4% by 2021.

Martin Feldstein is writing in support of Fed policy in the WSJ today so you know they are serious. Feldstein was Reagan's economic advisor and Wall Street listens to him even when he wants to take away the punch bowl. He argues that we already have an asset-price bubble because the Fed delayed lifting rates years so its probably to late to avoid a deep recession. Of course, if the Fed chickens out now, the consequences would be even more catastrophic.

Quote:
Looking ahead, there is a significant risk that the U.S. economy will slide into recession in the next few years. Though gross domestic product has grown robustly of late, bloated asset prices will likely collapse, dragging industry down with them. The price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is nearly 40% above its historic average. As long-term interest rates return to normal levels, demand for equities and other assets will decline rapidly. A return of share prices today to their historic price-earnings ratios would wipe out nearly $8 trillion of household wealth. The resulting decline in consumer spending and the related fall in business activity would be enough to push the economy into recession.

If that scenario plays out in the next few years, the Fed won't be able to achieve a large rate reduction. Even if the Fed raises the fed-funds rate to 3.4% by the end of 2021, as it currently plans to do, that will not be high enough to allow a substantial rate reduction. And the consequence would be a deeper and longer recession than usual.


Not to worry, of course. We learned our lesson ten years ago, now the Irish economy is completely insulated from Wall Street. XX

https://www.wsj.com/articles/raise-rate ... 1543276851


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 Post subject: Re: ECB Watch
PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:17 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
It's a year and a half since anyone posted on the Central Bank forum, apart from the National Debt thread (i.e. about fiscal policy) and the "Giz a Job..." thread.

I'm sure Pinsters know that monetary policy is what makes the property world go round so we should keep our eye on the ball. Trump is trying to bully the Fed but it looks like they will ignore him and keep going i.e. from zero to 3.4% by 2021.

Martin Feldstein is writing in support of Fed policy in the WSJ today so you know they are serious. Feldstein was Reagan's economic advisor and Wall Street listens to him even when he wants to take away the punch bowl. He argues that we already have an asset-price bubble because the Fed delayed lifting rates years so its probably to late to avoid a deep recession. Of course, if the Fed chickens out now, the consequences would be even more catastrophic.

Quote:
Looking ahead, there is a significant risk that the U.S. economy will slide into recession in the next few years. Though gross domestic product has grown robustly of late, bloated asset prices will likely collapse, dragging industry down with them. The price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is nearly 40% above its historic average. As long-term interest rates return to normal levels, demand for equities and other assets will decline rapidly. A return of share prices today to their historic price-earnings ratios would wipe out nearly $8 trillion of household wealth. The resulting decline in consumer spending and the related fall in business activity would be enough to push the economy into recession.

If that scenario plays out in the next few years, the Fed won't be able to achieve a large rate reduction. Even if the Fed raises the fed-funds rate to 3.4% by the end of 2021, as it currently plans to do, that will not be high enough to allow a substantial rate reduction. And the consequence would be a deeper and longer recession than usual.


Not to worry, of course. We learned our lesson ten years ago, now the Irish economy is completely insulated from Wall Street. XX

https://www.wsj.com/articles/raise-rate ... 1543276851



US inflation is barely above 2 % and trumps tariffs is likely to moderate any further growth rates
Feldstein is an inflation hawk wanting rising rates in the throws of a recession/depression.
Some who gives better insight into the Fed policy and direction is Tim Duy


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