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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:01 am 
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More hardening of positions:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... cial-warns
Quote:
The EU has accused the British government of “chasing a fantasy” and warned that it will not negotiate under threat, after a fraught week of Brexit talks in Brussels that have raised serious concerns about the future of the negotiations.

The whole approach of the UK government to the discussions was castigated by a senior EU official involved, who further warned that the bloc would not be forced into positions that were against its interests.
>>>

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:02 am 
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Just on Maxfac:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oples-vote
Quote:
They were selling a fantasy. As the whole Brexit debacle has developed, this fantasy is unravelling. We have had to concede on every single front: timelines, costs, process, regulation. Almost every day we learn about some new complication, some new risk, some previously hidden cost of exiting the best deal this country has ever had.

The latest is the revelation from the chief executive of HMRC that the Brexiters’ preferred customs plan, the so-called “max-fac” solution based on technology, would cost British businesses between £17bn and 20bn a year. To put that into a context even Boris Johnson would understand, that’s a cost of around £350m a week. I don’t remember seeing that on the side of any big red buses.
>>>

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 2:51 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
More brutal realism from eureferendum.com, this time in the form of a link to a talk by Ivan Rogers, the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union until last year, when he resigned over lack of government realism.

Holy crap! I just finished reading that lecture. Well worth half an hour if you have to it spare. It's scary! Although the tone is measured, nearly every paragraph delivers another uppercut to the delusional thinking in Westminster. For the first time I feel I have a handle on the magnitude of the problem the UK is facing, in fact an intractable problem unless some serious compromises are reached. And one genuinely worries that politicians might see it as in their best interests to just deflect blame while the country crashes and burns around them.


+1. A deal that could actually place the EU in a tough bind to decide on, is the deal that the Brexiteers would never, ever go for. For the EU then, there's really nothing brewing on the UK side that would disrupt their unity in these negotiations. The UK is completely f*cked. May's strategy seems like she is trying to get her party and the country to slowly realise this.

I can't see JRM, Boris and co. engineer a heave all by themselves. I'm not sure the Tories as a party are ready to take that step. Can they collapse the government? If they are true, true, believers, they could be inclined to - to pass the buck to Corbyn. But they would never be forgotten or forgiven by their peers.

So the skeptics might prefer to just prattle on and to cultivate that "stab in the back" legend.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 11:10 am 
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Given that the Republic is now more socially liberal, economically advanced, part of a greater trading block,
Why wouldn't the North vote for a United Ireland?
or
Are they better off with a foot in both the UK & EU?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun May 27, 2018 2:56 pm 
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temene wrote:
Given that the Republic is now more socially liberal, economically advanced, part of a greater trading block,
Why wouldn't the North vote for a United Ireland?
or
Are they better off with a foot in both the UK & EU?

I've always understood that NI was subsidized to a larger extent than other the UK regions (per capita). Any NI politician, (even SF) would be asking where the money would come from in the short to medium term to keep the show on the road. I don't think they are capable of making the decisions needed to restructure the NI economy to align with ours; any gain by one side is seen as a loss by the other. They can't even see eye to eye to run NI as it stands right now. And this should be the easiest of the difficult problems that need to be solved.

I just can't see a united Ireland in my lifetime. In our PR system, the unionists could conceivably hold the balance of power in a restructured Dail/Parliament, they would be offered all sorts of safeguards, the negotiations would put Brexit to shame - and I don't think even all that would be enough to convince them to work towards a united Ireland settlement without bloodshed.

We, and they, are better off if they keep a foot in both the UK & EU.

Always, we may stray off topic so perhaps another thread should be split off here.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:20 pm 
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Posts: 1925
london_irish wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
More brutal realism from eureferendum.com, this time in the form of a link to a talk by Ivan Rogers, the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union until last year, when he resigned over lack of government realism.

Holy crap! I just finished reading that lecture. Well worth half an hour if you have to it spare. It's scary! Although the tone is measured, nearly every paragraph delivers another uppercut to the delusional thinking in Westminster. For the first time I feel I have a handle on the magnitude of the problem the UK is facing, in fact an intractable problem unless some serious compromises are reached. And one genuinely worries that politicians might see it as in their best interests to just deflect blame while the country crashes and burns around them.


+1. A deal that could actually place the EU in a tough bind to decide on, is the deal that the Brexiteers would never, ever go for. For the EU then, there's really nothing brewing on the UK side that would disrupt their unity in these negotiations. The UK is completely f*cked. May's strategy seems like she is trying to get her party and the country to slowly realise this.

I can't see JRM, Boris and co. engineer a heave all by themselves. I'm not sure the Tories as a party are ready to take that step. Can they collapse the government? If they are true, true, believers, they could be inclined to - to pass the buck to Corbyn. But they would never be forgotten or forgiven by their peers.

So the skeptics might prefer to just prattle on and to cultivate that "stab in the back" legend.

+2 its hard to find any informed opinions on brexit in the media as it doesnt sell.
Eureferendum and the occasional reporting of Barniers' comments are about it

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:45 pm 
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werpen wrote:
+2 its hard to find any informed opinions on brexit in the media as it doesnt sell.
Eureferendum and the occasional reporting of Barniers' comments are about it

Here's the EU's side of it https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit- ... kingdom_en

For the UKs side I guess it's a case of sorting through all the UK publications to figure out which leaks and interpretations are the most credible. I find Ian Dunt has been consistently correct on predictions since he published "Brexit, what the hell happens now" at the end of 2016.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 7:29 am 
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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/u ... -1.3512322
Quote:
British manufacturers on Tuesday said the government should abandon one of its main customs proposals for after Brexit, criticising the so-called “max fac” option as unrealistic and a waste of money.

The EEF manufacturers’ association said that it was naive to think that the system, favoured by some who want looser ties with the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc, could be implemented by 2020.

“It may have some long-term benefits, but suggesting max fac is a solution to our immediate problems is a non-starter,” EEF Chief Executive Stephen Phipson said in a statement.

It goes from bad to worse, for the Tory euro-skeptics.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 8:28 pm 
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https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/2 ... acy_dream/
Quote:
The European Union's chief Brexit negotiator has poured cold water on the UK's dreams of a special deal on data adequacy* after it leaves the bloc.

In a speech given over the weekend, Michel Barnier said that the UK "needs to face up to the reality of Brexit" and the way the EU's decision-making systems work.

The UK has repeatedly proffered the idea that it should be granted a seat at the data protection negotiating table, and continue to be part of EU-wide mechanisms set out in the General Data Protection Regulation
>>>

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 8:46 pm 
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probably best for Britons not have their data used against them.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2018 10:17 pm 
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Thing Fish wrote:
probably best for Britons not have their data used against them.

Erm, did you read it? It's about whether EU residents data is safe in the UK.

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"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2018 8:44 am 
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Joined: Jan 29, 2013
Posts: 564
temene wrote:
Given that the Republic is now more socially liberal, economically advanced, part of a greater trading block,
Why wouldn't the North vote for a United Ireland?
or
Are they better off with a foot in both the UK & EU?


Pride comes before a fall, especially for us Irish. We're very similar to Liverpool fans in that respect. A few wet weeks ago we were an IMF run basket case.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:04 am 
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David Davis: Give NI joint EU + UK status as well as a border buffer zone.
NI would operate EU + UK regulations at the same time, so it can trade freely with both. :? :idea: :?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6423932/david-davis-northern-ireland-brexit-plans-dup/
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:21 am 
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Oh problem solved Davis, you absolute genius.

Hey, better still, why not do it for all of the UK so you can have same-but-different regulations all/some of the time. This would allow the UK to trade seamlessly with the EU single market under harmonised rules while freeing it up to have its own set of rules and make bilateral trade deals with the US etc.

Note to Davis: This makes no sense unless you have discovered some kind of quantum customs union


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:41 am 
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I'm not a conspiracy theorist...

...but is there any chance this latest thing from David Davis - N.I. is simultaneously in/out of EU/UK customs arrangements and there's some kind of special economic zone for 10 miles at UK/Ireland border - is part of a deliberate effort to run down the clock?

It cannot be a serious suggestion. Some dim-witted politicians bumble their way to high office but UK civil servants in London and Brussels are professional, worldly, pragmatic and sane. They are hardly committing an idea like that to paper.

Is it just that there are three weeks to the crunch summit and Davis/his advisors are throwing this kind of nonsense out to distract commentators for a few days? Then they'll say they were never serious about it but wanted to think outside the box. Then there'll be another faux row at cabinet - but nobody will be fired or leave - and then they'll be at the table with the others repeating ideas that were long-ago dismissed as unworkable.

---everyone goes on holidays hoping September brings fresh ideas. It doesn't---

Then...we get to the scenario Bertie Ahern (what an absolute sage) painted a few months ago:
It's a Council summit at the of October. Time is up. It's 2am. Nobody wants a 'no deal' shock with Italy or Spain or Greece on fire so red lines begin to fade. Macron or Barnier or Martin Selmayr puts a hand on Leo's shoulder and says "Listen, we think you're totally brilliant but there's too much at stake, you'll need to take one for the team here.."


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