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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:36 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Then...we get to the scenario Bertie Ahern (what an absolute sage) painted a few months ago:
It's a Council summit at the of October. Time is up. It's 2am. Nobody wants a 'no deal' shock with Italy or Spain or Greece on fire so red lines begin to fade. Macron or Barnier or Martin Selmayr puts a hand on Leo's shoulder and says "Listen, we think you're totally brilliant but there's too much at stake, you'll need to take one for the team here.."

I think it would be the end of the European Project, TBH, if that were to happen. The Project would be exposed as a quasi-imperialist takeover of Europe by the, erm, 'major' powers, with Ireland carved out as a colony of the UK. Given European history, it's unwise to exclude it as a possibility, but I think the secret would be out in pretty short order.

Besides, I don't think the rest of Europe does actually want a deal with the UK. Like with Greece, they want to make leaving the EU as painful as possible. They want to say to, for example, Austria, "sure you can leave, but we'll put up fences all around you, good luck getting imports from anyone". If there is a conspiracy on the EU side, it's that they are not doing the UK's homework for them - I'm sure it would be possible to come up with a Norway light (like what Turkey seems to have) with a few side agreements and present that.

I also think the civil servants in the UK are deeply anti-Brexit, not for political reasons, but for the reasons you give - they are sane pragmatists aware of how the world works. Their best bet of, say, EEA is to have no agreement and a panic'd crumble of the UK government - the civil servants doing the Sir Humphrey "TINA Minister, TINA" as they shake their heads sadly.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:44 pm 
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Maybe the 'delay and pray' effort is what the UK are hoping for but what you outline seems more likely.

I was in Brussels recently at a conference (nothing directly to do with Brexit) and the chit-chat during coffee breaks was very anti-UK. Even those who had some sympathy with the basic complaint about bureaucracy or 'ever closer union' were very frustrated with the lack of constructive engagement. Plenty of people essentially saying they should be punished, even if it comes at an economic cost to the EU. The political project is of more long-term value.

As you say, Austria or Hungary or Slovakia or Poland or Finland or even France (all with plenty of anti-EU sentiment) need to see what happens when you leave the club.

I did hear one or two people say 'screw them, they never played ball - always wanted opt-outs and rebates - we'll be better off without them.' We'll soon find out!


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:50 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
I did hear one or two people say 'screw them, they never played ball - always wanted opt-outs and rebates - we'll be better off without them.' We'll soon find out!

Indeed we will! :)

Which makes our position in Ireland and the focus on it understandable - the only really important issue, if you think the UK is going to leave with nothing, is the border on the island of Ireland.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:40 pm 
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The Davis buffer zone would include the city of Derry and Arlenes family home.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:40 pm 
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I've seen it called the Davis Bluffer Zone! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:44 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Maybe the 'delay and pray' effort is what the UK are hoping for but what you outline seems more likely.

I was in Brussels recently at a conference (nothing directly to do with Brexit) and the chit-chat during coffee breaks was very anti-UK. Even those who had some sympathy with the basic complaint about bureaucracy or 'ever closer union' were very frustrated with the lack of constructive engagement. Plenty of people essentially saying they should be punished, even if it comes at an economic cost to the EU. The political project is of more long-term value.

As you say, Austria or Hungary or Slovakia or Poland or Finland or even France (all with plenty of anti-EU sentiment) need to see what happens when you leave the club.

I did hear one or two people say 'screw them, they never played ball - always wanted opt-outs and rebates - we'll be better off without them.' We'll soon find out!


I'd say the feeling is mutual. Britain will do just fine outside of the EU,probably even a lot better.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:57 pm 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
I'd say the feeling is mutual. Britain will do just fine outside of the EU,probably even a lot better.


Not necessarily doubting that Britain will do "just fine". Heck, Britain survived the turmoil in the 70ies and 80ies just fine.
But as you are saying "a lot better" - by what measure or metric? What are the KPIs to make that definite call in 5 or 15 years to say "Much better now"?

Not expecting an academic answer that one can quote back at you, but what exactly is it, at this point in time, that must surely be so bad that by leaving the European Union it will be much better?
Because it implies that this "badness" is caused by the European Union.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:30 pm 
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Also very interested to define how they will be doing better by leaving the EU.

They might do better by happenstance, but I'd like to see the arguments for WHY they will actually do better than now.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:20 pm 
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From over here it looks like T May will be lucky to see out the summer.
She'll have to fall on the Heathrow expansion issue or some other manufactured nonsense for 'optics'.

Wages over here are rising and house prices are falling; this is underlining the populace' sentiment for Brexit as things are getting better; some chinky wage rises being negotiated in the absence of an endless slew of foreigners.
Not knowing this is fatal to any calculations/delibrations; on the ground the Brexit vote is 'delivering'.

In the 1990 film The Treaty - as Collins and DeValera are making and receiving various approaches to and from the British - the Collins character criticizes DeValeras approach with something akin to 'He has no idea of how precarious Lloyd Georges position is.'
I submit that those abroad are today in a similar place; you genuinely underestimate how shaky the Tories are and how precarious the Labour vote is.

The EU is negotiating with a family in a 3-way tussle for a shotgun; The current govt, the hard left and the hard right. If they get it wrong one or more of the family get shot but theres a possibility that the (EU) negotiator and/or the neighbour (you, little Ireland) gets badly hurt too. Blaming one side or the other (like Juncker on Italy) solves nothing and only exacerbates the situation.

The second thing you should not underestimate is the complexion of the Labour party.
The current ascendancy is anti-EU for entirely different reasons than the Tory Right.
The North of England is strongly pro-Brexit and suffered the most under QE/Austerity. This area is also core Labour territory.
Within this, there is also much ill feeling toward anti-Brexit Labour MPs - many will be deselected at the first opportunity.
This is the reason that anti-Brexit lobby is weak - they correctly assess that its electoral suicide.

Summary - The anti-Brexit lobby is much weaker than many seem to imagine, Ireland would be advised to prepare to manage reunification or to leave the EU.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:30 pm 
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Hilarious Twitter thread from Pete North editor of LeaveHQ i.e. ardent Brexiteer

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeteNorth303 ... 1557681152

Quote:

6. Without certifications and authorisations of the single market we can't expect to keep Airbus and Rolls Royce in Bristol. What replaces that? If we can;t get trucks through the ports in under 24 hours then our fresh produce exports die. What replaces that?

7. After four years of intense debate there isn't a single London pro-Brexit outfit with a comprehensive and convincing idea of what comes next or how we achieve it. All we get is snake oil from Henry Newman and Shanker Singham and sloganeering from the TPA moron.


9. You complain that MPs are getting ready to stitch us up and tie us tot he customs union. Well what did you expect them to do? And in the absence of credible alternative ideas, what else could they do? And whose fault is that? This is the failure of Brexiters


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:48 pm 
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Download the UK's new technical note on customs arrangement - complete with tracked changes where they changed lots of 'Northern Ireland' to the 'United Kingdom'. Looks like the backstrop agreement now applies to all of the UK i.e. if there's no deal the whole of the UK stays in the EU customs union until the end of the transition period (possibly end of 2021)

Still fresh so not much reaction to it yet (and my snap interpretation could be wrong!)


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:57 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Download the UK's new technical note on customs arrangement - complete with tracked changes where they changed lots of 'Northern Ireland' to the 'United Kingdom'. Looks like the backstrop agreement now applies to all of the UK i.e. if there's no deal the whole of the UK stays in the EU customs union until the end of the transition period (possibly end of 2021)

Still fresh so not much reaction to it yet (and my snap interpretation could be wrong!)

That's my interpretation too and I'm sure the EU will say 'no', as it gives the UK unfettered access to the Single Market without either specific agreement or payment. Or the EU may just put an annual charge on it :)

It's a ludicrous can-kicking anyway and points to the view that there isn't an answer to shitting and holding it in at the same time.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:09 pm 
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Which reminds me of a tweet I saw earlier from (presumably) a Remainer based in the UK when rumours swirled that David Davis might quit the cabinet if he didn't get his way:

Quote:
David Davis will resign only if he can also keep all the benefits of staying in the cabinet.

David Davis awaits the cabinet's offer of terms for his resignation, which he expects to be reasonable.

David Davis means David Davis.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:44 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Which reminds me of a tweet I saw earlier from (presumably) a Remainer based in the UK when rumours swirled that David Davis might quit the cabinet if he didn't get his way:

Quote:
David Davis will resign only if he can also keep all the benefits of staying in the cabinet.

David Davis awaits the cabinet's offer of terms for his resignation, which he expects to be reasonable.

David Davis means David Davis.

:)
It's a perfectly reasonable position, after all, a half-president for life in a south american dictatorship/half-monarch in a constitutional monarchy once got to keep their cabinet title as lord of all things, so clearly that must also apply to David "David Davis" Davis.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:47 pm 
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This is what Boris Johnson thinks of Northern Ireland.

With friends like that, who needs enemies, Arlene?


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