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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:16 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
Image

This is what Boris Johnson thinks of Northern Ireland.

With friends like that, who needs enemies, Arlene?


The oft-claimed Finchley-ness of NI coming home to roost!


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:02 am 
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Does anybody seriously believe that this speech was recorded and "leaked" without Johnson's knowledge? It plays right into his hands and allows him to pass the blame when Brexit goes tits up.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:27 am 
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Location: Mesopotatia
:shock:

Quote:
42% of people in the North want a united Ireland - poll. 45% remain

Image

Image

...

The result represents a much narrower lead for the pro-UK camp than another survey carried out for Belfast's Queen's University in May, which suggested 50% backed the UK, whilst only 21% favoured a united Ireland.

The Queen's poll was conducted face-to-face by Ipsos Mori, whilst the BBC survey was carried out online and over the telephone by Lucid Talk. Lucid Talk's Bill White believes the online survey method may catch more "shy" united Ireland supporters than face-to-face interviews.



https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44398502

Surely it's not that close in reality

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The real damage is done by those millions who want to 'get by'. The ordinary men who just want to be left in peace. Those who don’t want their lives disturbed by anything bigger than themselves. Those with no sides and no causes. Those who won’t take measure of their own strength, for fear of antagonizing their own weakness. Those people who roll up their spirits into tiny little balls so as to be safe. Safe?! From what?
Sophie Scholl


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:43 am 
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I'd imagine as Brexit actually unfolds there could be greater shifts. So far Brexit has only been looming, but at the end of month we'll know whether the UK is heading for a hard Brexit or not.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:34 pm 
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Joined: Jan 29, 2013
Posts: 564
No change in support for Scottish independence however.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-change-in-support-for-scottish-independence-576f20jb9

Quote:
Four out of ten Scots want the chance to vote on Scottish independence in the next five years even though support for separation has not shifted since the 2014 referendum.

The Times’ YouGov poll found the country to be split in exactly the same way as in 2014: 55 per cent for the Union and 45 per cent for independence.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Joined: Feb 21, 2008
Posts: 4253
Dubhgeannain wrote:
:shock:

Quote:
42% of people in the North want a united Ireland - poll. 45% remain

Image

Image

...

The result represents a much narrower lead for the pro-UK camp than another survey carried out for Belfast's Queen's University in May, which suggested 50% backed the UK, whilst only 21% favoured a united Ireland.

The Queen's poll was conducted face-to-face by Ipsos Mori, whilst the BBC survey was carried out online and over the telephone by Lucid Talk. Lucid Talk's Bill White believes the online survey method may catch more "shy" united Ireland supporters than face-to-face interviews.



https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44398502

Surely it's not that close in reality


The poll was done by LucidTalk which is basically a one man and his dog operation that does most of its business with the Belfast Telegraph. Its run by a former IT guy who has zero background in opinion polling / market surveying. Just some guy with a math degree who knows how to use computers. So statistically real world margin of error closer to +/- 10%. Worthless.

However here are some real statistics about NI and the ROI.

http://www.intertradeireland.com/researchandpublications/trade-statistics/total_cross_border_trade/

Despite all the hoopla there is only very weak economic linkage between NI and ROI.

NI is the destination for maybe 2% (yes TWO) of ROI's exports. Even factoring out the MNC scams it would barely top 5%. The ROI is more economically integrated with Belgium. For NI the ROI is the foreign export destination for about 20% of exports. But in total volume of NI tradable goods goods exports to the ROI are dwarfed by goods traded with the rest of the UK regions. In the region of 10 to 1 plus. Inter-reagion trading stats are more difficult to come by than inter nation.

So ROI has very weak economic integration with NI. Basically none. And NI is fully economically integrated with the rest of the UK and the ROI is merely one of several important foreign export destinations. Just like it was 30/40 years ago.

Anyway, when this current farrago about the Border is over and forgotten its going to be fun listen to the howls of outrage once it sinks in just what the Germans and Brussels have planned for the country. Even before 2022 its going to get very interesting. And that is without the complete collapse of any kind of political sanity that has happened in Germany over the last two years. The most recent internal news out of Germany makes Italy sound like a calm and reasonable place. The fact that the Afd are the official opposition and half the senior SPD grandees are in the direct or indirect pay of the Russians is only the beginning. Senior politicians talking seriously about putting in "administrators" to run "ill disciplined" countries, usurping the elected governments. Or how about using the new EU military force to force countries to take their "fare share" of the million of migrants the Germans let into their country. Shades of Fall Weiss. The list goes on.

In the bigger scheme of things the Brexit Circus is an irrelevant side show. And its just that, a circus. A nice distraction from the on going internal collapse of the EU power structures. The French Enarque, for one, has seen the writing on the wall. They got Macron in to try to save the edifice. Macron was blown off and basically humiliated by the Germans so if past history is a guide the Enarque have the plans for how to deal with the post Macron world. Like Wauquiez's rolling back the EU to a multi tier EEC. In which Ireland would have basically the same status as Greece, Portugal, Bulgaria. And the UK.

Its either that or be a vassal of the Germans. The only bit of the Irish set up the Germans are interested in is the IFSC. That will survive. Too valuable for German banks and insurance companies. All the MNC tax evasion stuff, which is mostly US, that will be stamped out. The Germans and French are already talking about what will follow post 2022. As the Dutch will be in a better position to fight a rear guard action I expect a lot will be relocated to the Netherlands. If it still matters by that stage.

But Deutschland Uber Alles it will be. All three verses.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:33 pm 
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https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/result ... 9/toplines

Quote:
Is Brexit going as well as you thought it would?

Yougov Poll
Even the Ukipers and cons think its going badly

The latest BS from Doh-vis and Meh are as incompetent as ever.
Expect an well earned slap from the EU

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:36 pm 
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Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31688
Location: Tullamore
Because I'm worth it responds:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0608/96919 ... brexit-uk/
and
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... kstop-plan
Quote:
“We respect Britain’s red lines. I’d wish the British would respect their own red lines too.”

He added: “Let me be clear: our backstop cannot be extended to the UK. Why? Because it has been designed for the specific situation of Northern Ireland ... Let’s go back to pragmatism.”

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So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:48 pm 
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Posts: 8669
Location: London, innit
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/inve ... esses.html

Quote:
Brexiteer Odey bets £500m AGAINST British businesses: Rees-Mogg backer hopes to gain from ‘short’ stakes in shares he believes will fall...

Hedge fund tycoon Crispin Odey – who recently demanded Theresa May’s eviction from No 10 saying she couldn’t be trusted to carry Brexit through – stands to make huge profits from the woes of the UK economy, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.

His firm Odey Asset Management has taken out more than £500 million ‘short’ positions – which are essentially a gamble that a share price will fall – on some of Britain’s biggest firms, implying that he expects a poor performance from them.

The firms represent a cross-section of the UK economy, including ITV, against which Odey has staked a £47 million bet, according to financial data provider Bloomberg.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:27 pm 
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UK to apply to stay in European standards system after Brexit - https://www.ft.com/content/94ef2bb0-6b3 ... cfcfb08c11 via @FT

So those pesky EU standards are appreciated by business after all, though the blow hards still aren't convinced..


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:14 pm 
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Statement from Jaguar Land Rover last September.

Image

Today Land Rover production moves to Slovakia.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:03 am 
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To be fair, the reason production is moving is to create space for a new electric/hybrid model in the UK plant. However I doubt any investment in the new production line will take place until the Brexit issue is resolved.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:15 am 
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Luan wrote:
To be fair, the reason production is moving is to create space for a new electric/hybrid model in the UK plant. However I doubt any investment in the new production line will take place until the Brexit issue is resolved.

i.e. a hedge


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:45 am 
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Exactly

IMHO - a hard Brexit will turn the UK car industry into a wasteland.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:51 am 
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Posts: 1827
AWAAF wrote:
HouseBuyer wrote:
Image

This is what Boris Johnson thinks of Northern Ireland.

With friends like that, who needs enemies, Arlene?


The oft-claimed Finchley-ness of NI coming home to roost!


The line about so few 'firms' using the border is telling. Not surprising, but shows how little they care about people - their own citizens and neighbours.


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