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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:25 pm 
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This pantomime is all about flushing out the trouble makers to pave the way for another year of fudge. On the basis that the Commons is anti Brexit and we are heading to a second vote to validate the EU in some shape or form.

But there is so much trouble ahead given the rock solid core 40-45% Anti EU support within the UK. There will be so many seriously disgruntled English going around for years to come.

The Union (already a generation away from collapse, as a result of Scotland's position) may not last another decade with the fallout from this within England. Imagine trying to sell 'democracy' there over the next 5 years. Good luck with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:37 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
But there is so much trouble ahead given the rock solid core 40-45% Anti EU support within the UK. There will be so many seriously disgruntled English going around for years to come.

This is exactly the point.
Anti EU feeling is a bedrock UK political wing since the 'Bastards' and Major around 1992.
We're now 26 years later and they are stronger than ever politically.
The only solution to this is a Brexit, it will not simply go away with a commons vote or a fudge.
Starmer and the neo-libs are completely deluded if they think theres a 'victory' to be had here. There is no chance.

Its important to remember that this startling implosion is about the negotiating stance that the UK govt will take in its approach to Brexit, we're nowhere near a negotiated outcome or resolution to the issue.

Epicurus wrote:
The Union (already a generation away from collapse, as a result of Scotland's position) may not last another decade with the fallout from this within England. Imagine trying to sell 'democracy' there over the next 5 years. Good luck with that.

I'd agree with that, the Union is toast.

For those mentioning Corbyn, hes played a blinder here.
Hounded by his own neo-liberal wing to 'take a stance' and 'be strong' and 'believe he can fly, believe he can touch the sky' and other such nonsense he has remained schtum and committed to nothing.
At the very least, he has earned his stripes as a consummate politician and a shrewd operator.
He has out manouevred May, and left her to be savaged by her own party while slapping his own internal critics into touch.
A masterful display of patience and definite Prime Ministerial material.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:05 pm 
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Sosthenes wrote:
Its important to remember that this startling implosion is about the negotiating stance that the UK govt will take in its approach to Brexit, we're nowhere near a negotiated outcome or resolution to the issue.

It seems unlikely there's going to be any negotiation on the current proposal. The White Paper will come out on Thursday, and the EU will shoot it down in flames by Monday. The hardline Brexiteers will snort and say "I told you so" about lack of EU generosity and flexibility, and hard Brexit will then be the only game in town. If there's going to be a heave either within or against the Tories, it'll happen then.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:49 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
Sosthenes wrote:
Its important to remember that this startling implosion is about the negotiating stance that the UK govt will take in its approach to Brexit, we're nowhere near a negotiated outcome or resolution to the issue.

It seems unlikely there's going to be any negotiation on the current proposal. The White Paper will come out on Thursday, and the EU will shoot it down in flames by Monday. The hardline Brexiteers will snort and say "I told you so" about lack of EU generosity and flexibility, and hard Brexit will then be the only game in town. If there's going to be a heave either within or against the Tories, it'll happen then.



The EU will shoot down any proposal. Hard Brexit here we come. And a good thing at that.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:57 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
The White Paper will come out on Thursday, and the EU will shoot it down in flames by Monday.

I don't think so- I'd guess they'll give words of encouragement to the "slow child", then slowly show that there are 2 options only - CETA or EEA.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:39 am 
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I'd be inclined to agree with superman on that. The EU can't accept the 'free market for goods and food (only)' proposal but would be mad to dismiss it. They'll probably say it's a basis for negotiation, welcome elements of it, note the integrity of the Single Market in passing <cough>the four freedoms are indivisible</cough>, and then spell out the hard facts later in the summer. Unless they want to get rid of May, of course..


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:42 am 
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I listened to Geoffrey Donaldson on PK this morning
Completely ignorant of whats going on but that shouldnt be a surprise. PK wasnt much good either. GD stating a border in the sea would contravene the GFA :roll: . All that really matters to Donaldson is the union.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:49 am 
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I doubt it's a masterstroke, but the Chequers agreement finally nailing colours to masts is pretty cunning, I think. It'll be interesting to see how many jump with BoJo and Double Davis. Finding yourself in the gods with the Mogglodytes (love that) and the DUP for company might make Headlines out of them. Nice hair, always in the news, but bit part players in Parliament.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:23 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
... the Chequers agreement finally nailing colours to masts is pretty cunning, I think...


... if a year'n'a'bit late.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:51 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
... the Chequers agreement finally nailing colours to masts is pretty cunning, I think...


... if a year'n'a'bit late.

I think the ludicrous nature of the hard Brexit position had to become evident, to the point where employers and unions were both calling for a softer Brexit. E.g. The laughable fishermen's union who have just realised that a hard Brexit would leave them with no market for their increased product.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:57 am 
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Mossy_Heneberry wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
Sosthenes wrote:
Its important to remember that this startling implosion is about the negotiating stance that the UK govt will take in its approach to Brexit, we're nowhere near a negotiated outcome or resolution to the issue.

It seems unlikely there's going to be any negotiation on the current proposal. The White Paper will come out on Thursday, and the EU will shoot it down in flames by Monday. The hardline Brexiteers will snort and say "I told you so" about lack of EU generosity and flexibility, and hard Brexit will then be the only game in town. If there's going to be a heave either within or against the Tories, it'll happen then.



The EU will shoot down any proposal. Hard Brexit here we come. And a good thing at that.


The EU will not reject this proposal. They will describe it as an “interesting” starting point and then tell the UK to do a lot more work. Cue further meltdowns. The EU is a negotiating machine.

There is no majority in Parliament for a hard brexit and that will not happen. The UK is screwed, and they know it.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:56 am 
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Saibhreas wrote:
There is no majority in Parliament for a hard brexit and that will not happen. The UK is screwed, and they know it.

I wonder what the reaction on the streets will be when the average punter realises that too.

Will the sense of powerlessness only fuel the likes of For Britain etc...?

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:39 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

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catbear wrote:
Saibhreas wrote:
There is no majority in Parliament for a hard brexit and that will not happen. The UK is screwed, and they know it.

I wonder what the reaction on the streets will be when the average punter realises that too.

Will the sense of powerlessness only fuel the likes of For Britain etc...?


All my English friends appear to harbour deep dislike and distrust for the establishment.

However they will only utter what are non PC view points in private. This is unhealthy and will ultimately provoke a reaction.

If Brexit is shot down or substantially diluted , (throw in England winning the World Cup (God forbid!)), I could see such views coming out into the open.

20,000 people marched in London recently in support of Tommy Robinson. It was barely reported on in any mainstream media outlet.

Abandonment/substantial dilution of Brexit would surely spark serious anger across the UK

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:23 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
I'd be inclined to agree with superman on that. The EU can't accept the 'free market for goods and food (only)' proposal but would be mad to dismiss it. They'll probably say it's a basis for negotiation, welcome elements of it, note the integrity of the Single Market in passing <cough>the four freedoms are indivisible</cough>, and then spell out the hard facts later in the summer. Unless they want to get rid of May, of course..

Two years on from the vote and amazingly some politicians in the UK still seem to think that compromising on the four freedoms is a basis for negotiation.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:28 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
If Brexit is shot down or substantially diluted , (throw in England winning the World Cup (God forbid!)), I could see such views coming out into the open.

20,000 people marched in London recently in support of Tommy Robinson. It was barely reported on in any mainstream media outlet.

Abandonment/substantial dilution of Brexit would surely spark serious anger across the UK

I've noted the same in the part of north England I'm in at the moment. After the Arena bombing last year there seemed to be some sort of Britain First march which would never be covered in the media and this year it seems to have morphed into the Football Lads Alliance thing. What seems to be happening is that these groups are gravitating towards each other, add to them For Britain who have carved off that radical right wing of UKip.

I can see them dusting off that residual England wide UKip organisational apparatus for their own use.

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