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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:12 am 
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All the knives are out on the Sunday front pages:

  • Betrayal of Brexit (Sunday Express)
    • Rees-Mogg says PM has broken trust of public
    • Boris Johnson is preparing a bombshell speech over resignation
  • Ex-minister: I quit over secret plan to foil Brexit (Sunday Telegraph)
  • Davis brands PM 'dishonest' over his Brexit alternative (The Sunday Times)
  • Mandelson joins Brexiters with attack on May's EU 'humiliation' (The Observer)
  • May: Back me or there'll be no Brexit (The Mail on Sunday)

What a mess! The Brexiteers are incandescent. Even Labour Remainers think May's approach is the worst of all worlds. And those in between, the people backing May and soft Brexit, are flogging a dead horse as her "Alt Max Fac" can't possible be acceptable to the EU. But at least you can always rely on the Brit press to twist the knife.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:20 am 
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Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard
Quote:
All the symptoms are there. No one – not Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn – can tell the public the truth that we either stay so closely aligned to the EU that there is no point in leaving or we suffer a shuddering economic shock and a catastrophic fall in our global standing .

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:44 pm 
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Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6211
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yoganmahew wrote:
Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard
Quote:
All the symptoms are there. No one – not Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn – can tell the public the truth that we either stay so closely aligned to the EU that there is no point in leaving or we suffer a shuddering economic shock and a catastrophic fall in our global standing .

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.


That's not a bad article but it's still quite amusing to see the British right on left/liberal chattering classes who have spent decades shitting on and denigrating their own country and society finally coming around to the realization that their incessantly negative labeling of Britain may actually be about to become reality. I'm reminded of the English work colleagues who lectured incessantly about the evils of the various privileges they enjoyed vis a vis non white Europeans etc etc being outraged by the Brexit result mainly on the basis of the possibility of their visa free travel to Europe being taken away ie. That same 'privilege' being reduced somewhat.

The forces behind Trump appear intent on dismantling what was the post WW2 global hegemony in which Europeans got to live the good life on the back of American military might......on the understanding that those same Europeans basically staying away from anything that resembled any form of political extremism, be it right or left leaning.

Someone within the American regime (possibly an element within the military who didn't share Hillary Clintons love for multiple simultaneous invasions and wars) may have decided to pull the plug on that particular arrangement. Ultimately , what many within the echo chamber that constitutes public discourse across Western Europe appear not to be aware of is that the world beyond Western Europe has changed immeasurably over the past decade. From Phillipines to India to Russia to China, right across the muslim world and now to the USA, the movement has been in the opposite direction to that of Western Europe. Western Europe, with its ever softening societal norms, while still the best place to live (as per the reasoning behind the unprecedented levels of inward migration) is actually the anomaly in global political terms.

Who's to say therefore that the US military (or whoever is pulling the strings) hasnt taken a look at a hungry, ever growing China, a strengthening Russia and a fattening, softening Western Europe and decided that it's future interests lie somewhere other than where they have lain since 1945? Perhaps, from a longer term perspective, an alliance with Russia (if achievable) in opposition to the Chinese (the coming threat) would prove more beneficial than the maintenance of a one sided relationship with an EU bloc that appears to be in decline and which offers very little militarily? Indeed, if Russia is on board as an ally, then the need for strong allies in Western Europe becomes less of an imperative.

If such came to pass over the course of an 8 year Trump Presidency,Brexit could actually prove to be a blessing over the longer term.....like a drunk man in a pub who wanders out mistakenly and wakes up in his own bed, remembers nothing, but then hears that the pub burnt down in his absence killing everyone inside. In other words the EU is on seriously shaky ground at the moment. And while Brexit is risky and may cause problems for the UK in the short term, over the longer term it could actually turn out to be a stroke of luck. Still, obviously, nothing is certain at this point

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:51 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

If such came to pass over the course of an 8 year Trump Presidency,Brexit could actually prove to be a blessing over the longer term.....like a drunk man in a pub who wanders out mistakenly and wakes up in his own bed, remembers nothing, but then hears that the pub burnt down in his absence killing everyone inside. In other words the EU is on seriously shaky ground at the moment. And while Brexit is risky and may cause problems for the UK in the short term, over the longer term it could actually turn out to be a stroke of luck. Still, obviously, nothing is certain at this point

Hmm, probably only if you think there's a first movers advantage in being below Puerto Rico in the US pecking order.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:31 am 
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Trump is a weird sort of puppet with far more strings attached than is normal for puppet....this by way of explaining the contortions he goes through daily or even hourly. The white house is full of whackjob puppeteers that he personally hired to do the pulling.

In the end the Chinese will hit his weak spot (probably Iowa soybean farmers to be precise) and his 8 year reich plan will implode along with the soybean industry. Here we'll keep the head down quietly until the cunt has gone. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:55 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard
Quote:
All the symptoms are there. No one – not Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn – can tell the public the truth that we either stay so closely aligned to the EU that there is no point in leaving or we suffer a shuddering economic shock and a catastrophic fall in our global standing .

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.


She refuses to consider the ingenious advice of the US President - to 'sue the EU' instead of negotiating. May looks fairly exasperated at this stage - and doesn't care that her personal relationship with Trump is FUBAR because it's not worth much.

Brexit is alike a Rubic's cube that never worked - but May has been handed it without being told it was impossible. Just as she's wondering whether this cube was ever right in the first place, she's got an idiot shouting 'Sue Rubic - just sue him.'

Maybe it's as useful a suggestion as any XX


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:59 am 
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Posts: 1925
yoganmahew wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

If such came to pass over the course of an 8 year Trump Presidency,Brexit could actually prove to be a blessing over the longer term.....like a drunk man in a pub who wanders out mistakenly and wakes up in his own bed, remembers nothing, but then hears that the pub burnt down in his absence killing everyone inside. In other words the EU is on seriously shaky ground at the moment. And while Brexit is risky and may cause problems for the UK in the short term, over the longer term it could actually turn out to be a stroke of luck. Still, obviously, nothing is certain at this point

Hmm, probably only if you think there's a first movers advantage in being below Puerto Rico in the US pecking order.

Its working out well for Puerto Rico.......... XX

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:11 am 
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Posts: 1457
There is no such thing as a soft Brexit, the only Brexit that can happen is a hard one or none at all. The EU, a regulatory entity, simply cannot undo the various treaties and agreements made between it’s members over the last few decades just to satisfy requirements of the British. As a poster mentioned previously, any deal they get would also then have to be given to Canada and others. Even a hard Brexit doesn’t mean the UK will no longer be affected by European regulations, take for example GDPR, after a hard Brexit British companies will still need to adhere by it if they want to business with European citizens, same as businesses in all countries, or if British citizens travel to the European union, their government simply won’t be able to influence any changes to it after Brexit, the exact same applies across the board from Food regulation to manufacturing. Brexiteers seem to think that Brexit means the EU ceases to exist, it will still be there and the British will still need to transact with it and therefore have to abide by a lot of its rules, like it or not. Brexit is merely an illusion of autonomy in a Globalised world.

I like the Golf club analogy used by I think it was ‘Pouca’ in the FT comments, my own take on the analogy:

Club member: My family and I don’t like the way you make your rules, We don’t want to be in the club anymore.
Club committee: OK no problem, you know that means you won’t be able to get the benefits of membership nor play on the course anymore, apart from the open day we have once a month for non-members, you’ll still need to follow the rules on that day though.
Club Member: No we want to play all the time and we’d like some of the benefits of membership, we just don’t want to follow your rules anymore nor do we want to pay your fees.
Club committee: Is it that you want to follow completely different rules?
Club Member: No, we’ll play by the same rules we just like the notion of setting our own, we just don’t want you setting rules we need to abide by or to pay any fees.
Club committee: Hmmm, ok. Well we’ll continue to set the rules for our club without you, you just won’t have a voice anymore. And we can’t give you any special status, you’re either a member or not a member there is no in between, even if we were willing we are unable to change the rules just for you.
Club Member: How about we follow rules A & B, but not C&D, can we play whenever we want then, for free?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules, we have built these rules over decades and everyone agrees to abide by them, we simply cannot make an exception just for you.
Club Member: OK OK, I promised them we would get the benefits of membership even after we left so how about we follow B, C and D, but not A?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules.
Club Member: OK OK, how about we follow A, C and D, but not B?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules. Etc etc for 2 years
Club member: OK so we have come up with a white paper that details how we are going to follow some of the rules and not others and still get a lot of the benefits of club membership including playing on the course and not paying fees, we have torn ourselves apart negotiating with ourselves on it before we sent it over on the assumption you will say yes because we are crossing our own red lines here, so please throw us a bone, some of the family are even saying we are not really leaving the club.
Expected response: You are leaving the club as per your own request, and as stated numerous times already if you want the benefits of membership you have to play by the rules, all of them. You’re membership expires next March for which you still owe us fees, see you at open day after that and don’t forget, even on open day you still have to follow the rules.

There simply cannot be a soft Brexit, at least what the British perceive that to be, either exit as a third country with a trade deal similar to other non-members or don’t exit at all.


Last edited by BottomsUp on Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:56 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:42 am 
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Posts: 2880
Location: God's Country
yoganmahew wrote:
Brexit Britain is out of options. Our humiliation is painful to watch

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... _clipboard
Quote:
All the symptoms are there. No one – not Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn – can tell the public the truth that we either stay so closely aligned to the EU that there is no point in leaving or we suffer a shuddering economic shock and a catastrophic fall in our global standing .

Not sure what else to say, the alternatives appear to be all closed off. TINA means tina.


Yes, but TINA's not for Turning. EU turn if EU want to


Last edited by Inis Man on Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:47 am 
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Joined: Sep 9, 2017
Posts: 280
There can be a no deal brexit, with WTO rules. For everyone. Next March.

So BMW would need to apply tariffs to sell into the considerable (for them) UK car market. Johnny Walker will need to impose tariffs to sell it's Scotch to Italian bars. The leave side maintain this will hit the EU more than it will hit fortress Britain.

For Ireland that will mean concentrating on a dozen big importers/exporters who make up the vast majority of the trade back and forth between Ireland and the UK. With tweeks after that for the small players cross border.

So for a good 35-40% of the British electorate this is the alternative.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:19 pm 
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Posts: 765
BMW and Johnny Walker don't apply tariffs, governments do.
Tariffs aren't applied willy-nilly, they apply to whole sectors.

Is your name David Davis by any chance ? :x


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:42 pm 
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Joined: Sep 9, 2017
Posts: 280
taipeir wrote:
BMW and Johnny Walker don't apply tariffs, governments do.
Tariffs aren't applied willy-nilly, they apply to whole sectors.

Is your name David Davis by any chance ? :x

Nah, just pointing out that the Leave side are not as wobbly as Remain like to think. And they do have an alternative, inconvenient as it maybe.

Ireland is such a Europhile echo chamber I find that it can be blinded a little, and many people fail to understand how America elects a Bush or a Trump, or Britain votes to leave.

We can expect Farage to be out there now, visible again campaigning against the 'No Deal' dogma.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:17 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
There can be a no deal brexit, with WTO rules. For everyone. Next March.


Finally someone that can tell us what Brexit means. Pity the British people weren't told that before the referendum, they seem to think they were promised a deal, a very good one too.

https://infacts.org/cut-keep-list-top-1 ... -promises/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... to-account


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:19 pm 
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Joined: Jul 9, 2008
Posts: 1216
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BottomsUp wrote:
There is no such thing as a soft Brexit, the only Brexit that can happen is a hard one or none at all. The EU, a regulatory entity, simply cannot undo the various treaties and agreements made between it’s members over the last few decades just to satisfy requirements of the British. As a poster mentioned previously, any deal they get would also then have to be given to Canada and others. Even a hard Brexit doesn’t mean the UK will no longer be affected by European regulations, take for example GDPR, after a hard Brexit British companies will still need to adhere by it if they want to business with European citizens, same as businesses in all countries, or if British citizens travel to the European union, their government simply won’t be able to influence any changes to it after Brexit, the exact same applies across the board from Food regulation to manufacturing. Brexiteers seem to think that Brexit means the EU ceases to exist, it will still be there and the British will still need to transact with it and therefore have to abide by a lot of its rules, like it or not. Brexit is merely an illusion of autonomy in a Globalised world.

I like the Golf club analogy used by I think it was ‘Pouca’ in the FT comments, my own take on the analogy:

Club member: My family and I don’t like the way you make your rules, We don’t want to be in the club anymore.
Club committee: OK no problem, you know that means you won’t be able to get the benefits of membership nor play on the course anymore, apart from the open day we have once a month for non-members, you’ll still need to follow the rules on that day though.
Club Member: No we want to play all the time and we’d like some of the benefits of membership, we just don’t want to follow your rules anymore nor do we want to pay your fees.
Club committee: Is it that you want to follow completely different rules?
Club Member: No, we’ll play by the same rules we just like the notion of setting our own, we just don’t want you setting rules we need to abide by or to pay any fees.
Club committee: Hmmm, ok. Well we’ll continue to set the rules for our club without you, you just won’t have a voice anymore. And we can’t give you any special status, you’re either a member or not a member there is no in between, even if we were willing we are unable to change the rules just for you.
Club Member: How about we follow rules A & B, but not C&D, can we play whenever we want then, for free?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules, we have built these rules over decades and everyone agrees to abide by them, we simply cannot make an exception just for you.
Club Member: OK OK, I promised them we would get the benefits of membership even after we left so how about we follow B, C and D, but not A?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules.
Club Member: OK OK, how about we follow A, C and D, but not B?
Club committee: No, if you want to play the course you have to play by the rules. Etc etc for 2 years
Club member: OK so we have come up with a white paper that details how we are going to follow some of the rules and not others and still get a lot of the benefits of club membership including playing on the course and not paying fees, we have torn ourselves apart negotiating with ourselves on it before we sent it over on the assumption you will say yes because we are crossing our own red lines here, so please throw us a bone, some of the family are even saying we are not really leaving the club.
Expected response: You are leaving the club as per your own request, and as stated numerous times already if you want the benefits of membership you have to play by the rules, all of them. You’re membership expires next March for which you still owe us fees, see you at open day after that and don’t forget, even on open day you still have to follow the rules.

There simply cannot be a soft Brexit, at least what the British perceive that to be, either exit as a third country with a trade deal similar to other non-members or don’t exit at all.


My own analogy, just as the negotiations (as such) was starting last year, was that of a man asking his wife for a divorce.
But before he'll agree - or even talk - about the separation, split of assets, alimony, child support - he instead wants to first talk about a "friend with benefits" relationship with his future ex-wife.
And then complains to all his friends that she's the problem and won't meet him halfway.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:08 pm 
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Posts: 5188
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


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