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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:16 pm 
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The Tories have no intention of negotiating a soft Brexit, it's hard Brexit all the way. Everything they're doing now is play acting to run down the clock.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:10 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


British politicians don't keep their word to "insert" shocker.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:25 pm 
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Customs act vote passed by 3 votes.

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--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:42 am 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


It's also completely barmy from a general EU perspective. I don't believe the EU would ever have accepted the Facilitated Customs Arrangement where the UK would levy EU tariffs on their behalf on goods arriving in Britain destined for the EU. But the Moggite amendment means that Brits won't even do this unless the EU also collects tariffs on Britain's behalf. What eejit could possibly imagine the EU will sign up to this? Barnier will send Dominic Raab home with his tail between his legs on Thursday. The disagreement will be kept low key though, as all sides realise a hard Brexit is now inevitable and try to figure out how to avoid panicking the markets.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:56 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
It's also completely barmy from a general EU perspective. I don't believe the EU would ever have accepted the Facilitated Customs Arrangement where the UK would levy EU tariffs on their behalf on goods arriving in Britain destined for the EU. But the Moggite amendment means that Brits won't even do this unless the EU also collects tariffs on Britain's behalf. What eejit could possibly imagine the EU will sign up to this? Barnier will send Dominic Raab home with his tail between his legs on Thursday. The disagreement will be kept low key though, as all sides realise a hard Brexit is now inevitable and try to figure out how to avoid panicking the markets.

Yes, a hard-Brexit seems the most likely scenario now. Any illusion that the UK can remain aligned in some sort of manner to the Single Market is now over. As you've stated, perhaps that was the intention all along.

It seems likely that the discussions about the future relationship will now move from a Switzerland/Norway model, to one closer to that of Canada. Extremely bad news for the City of London which will no longer have financial passporting rights into the EU. Also bad for global firms who have a base of operation in the UK in order to gain access to the Single Market. Perhaps the UK will get agressive on corporation tax, or maybe be able to get some sort of other state-aid package through to mitigate this? They are going to need some sort of stabilization measures in place soon to reassure business and promote investment.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:12 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
HouseBuyer wrote:
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


It's also completely barmy from a general EU perspective. I don't believe the EU would ever have accepted the Facilitated Customs Arrangement where the UK would levy EU tariffs on their behalf on goods arriving in Britain destined for the EU. But the Moggite amendment means that Brits won't even do this unless the EU also collects tariffs on Britain's behalf. What eejit could possibly imagine the EU will sign up to this? Barnier will send Dominic Raab home with his tail between his legs on Thursday. The disagreement will be kept low key though, as all sides realise a hard Brexit is now inevitable and try to figure out how to avoid panicking the markets.

it could still take the EEA/EFTA option but a hard brexit is more likely
Time to prepare for it, as is more effective that negotiating

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:11 pm 
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Is there any masterplan or does this thing just bob along from day to day?

What was the point of the Chequers showdown, and loss of cabinet ministers, if May is going to bend to Rees-Mogg's ERC in a way that undermines her own masterplan?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Is there any masterplan or does this thing just bob along from day to day?

What was the point of the Chequers showdown, and loss of cabinet ministers, if May is going to bend to Rees-Mogg's ERC in a way that undermines her own masterplan?


Can kicking. If she can lurch from one incoherent compromise to another until the government collapses under its own internal contradictions and a general election ensues, she can hand the ticking timebomb to Labour, by offering enough sequential compromises to forestall a party coup at each stage, where she would either be removed or win a confidence vote, reaching exit day and then watching it destroy the Conservative party while it's still in office.
Considering her ministerial career, she's failed her way to the very top and maybe she thinks she can successfully fail her way out of this as well.

Either that, or a big dollop of magical thinking.

Or maybe all of it simultaneously. At this stage, who knows? :?

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People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.


Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:08 pm 
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Madness of Crowds wrote:
Considering her ministerial career, she's failed her way to the very top and maybe she thinks she can successfully fail her way out of this as well.

Either that, or a big dollop of magical thinking.

Or maybe all of it simultaneously. At this stage, who knows? :?

I actually think she's reasonably clued in about the implications of Brexit and realises the insane ultra-Brexiteers are willing to burn the house down. She's also sanguine about the impossibility of reversing Brexit so is genuinely seeking a compromise. However, by caving early on to the notion that Brexit means leaving the single market and customs union, she's boxed herself into a corner where there is actually no alternative to hard Brexit. Perhaps at this stage she is just the stoic captain standing on the burning bridge, waiting to go down with the ship. One way or another, events will surely soon take things out of her hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:34 pm 
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tulip wrote:
The Tories have no intention of negotiating a soft Brexit, it's hard Brexit all the way. Everything they're doing now is play acting to run down the clock.


The Tories don't have a unified position, May might want another referendum

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