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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:16 pm 
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The Tories have no intention of negotiating a soft Brexit, it's hard Brexit all the way. Everything they're doing now is play acting to run down the clock.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:10 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


British politicians don't keep their word to "insert" shocker.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:25 pm 
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Customs act vote passed by 3 votes.

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If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:42 am 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


It's also completely barmy from a general EU perspective. I don't believe the EU would ever have accepted the Facilitated Customs Arrangement where the UK would levy EU tariffs on their behalf on goods arriving in Britain destined for the EU. But the Moggite amendment means that Brits won't even do this unless the EU also collects tariffs on Britain's behalf. What eejit could possibly imagine the EU will sign up to this? Barnier will send Dominic Raab home with his tail between his legs on Thursday. The disagreement will be kept low key though, as all sides realise a hard Brexit is now inevitable and try to figure out how to avoid panicking the markets.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:56 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
It's also completely barmy from a general EU perspective. I don't believe the EU would ever have accepted the Facilitated Customs Arrangement where the UK would levy EU tariffs on their behalf on goods arriving in Britain destined for the EU. But the Moggite amendment means that Brits won't even do this unless the EU also collects tariffs on Britain's behalf. What eejit could possibly imagine the EU will sign up to this? Barnier will send Dominic Raab home with his tail between his legs on Thursday. The disagreement will be kept low key though, as all sides realise a hard Brexit is now inevitable and try to figure out how to avoid panicking the markets.

Yes, a hard-Brexit seems the most likely scenario now. Any illusion that the UK can remain aligned in some sort of manner to the Single Market is now over. As you've stated, perhaps that was the intention all along.

It seems likely that the discussions about the future relationship will now move from a Switzerland/Norway model, to one closer to that of Canada. Extremely bad news for the City of London which will no longer have financial passporting rights into the EU. Also bad for global firms who have a base of operation in the UK in order to gain access to the Single Market. Perhaps the UK will get agressive on corporation tax, or maybe be able to get some sort of other state-aid package through to mitigate this? They are going to need some sort of stabilization measures in place soon to reassure business and promote investment.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:12 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
HouseBuyer wrote:
More drama. May has caved in on Jacob Rees Mogg's demands - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44845933

Whatever chance the original White Paper had, these amendments will make it unacceptable from the Irish position alone. We were promised full alignment between Northern Ireland and the customs union back in December, now it appears the British are reneging on that commitment.


It's also completely barmy from a general EU perspective. I don't believe the EU would ever have accepted the Facilitated Customs Arrangement where the UK would levy EU tariffs on their behalf on goods arriving in Britain destined for the EU. But the Moggite amendment means that Brits won't even do this unless the EU also collects tariffs on Britain's behalf. What eejit could possibly imagine the EU will sign up to this? Barnier will send Dominic Raab home with his tail between his legs on Thursday. The disagreement will be kept low key though, as all sides realise a hard Brexit is now inevitable and try to figure out how to avoid panicking the markets.

it could still take the EEA/EFTA option but a hard brexit is more likely
Time to prepare for it, as is more effective that negotiating

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:11 pm 
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Is there any masterplan or does this thing just bob along from day to day?

What was the point of the Chequers showdown, and loss of cabinet ministers, if May is going to bend to Rees-Mogg's ERC in a way that undermines her own masterplan?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Is there any masterplan or does this thing just bob along from day to day?

What was the point of the Chequers showdown, and loss of cabinet ministers, if May is going to bend to Rees-Mogg's ERC in a way that undermines her own masterplan?


Can kicking. If she can lurch from one incoherent compromise to another until the government collapses under its own internal contradictions and a general election ensues, she can hand the ticking timebomb to Labour, by offering enough sequential compromises to forestall a party coup at each stage, where she would either be removed or win a confidence vote, reaching exit day and then watching it destroy the Conservative party while it's still in office.
Considering her ministerial career, she's failed her way to the very top and maybe she thinks she can successfully fail her way out of this as well.

Either that, or a big dollop of magical thinking.

Or maybe all of it simultaneously. At this stage, who knows? :?

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:08 pm 
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Madness of Crowds wrote:
Considering her ministerial career, she's failed her way to the very top and maybe she thinks she can successfully fail her way out of this as well.

Either that, or a big dollop of magical thinking.

Or maybe all of it simultaneously. At this stage, who knows? :?

I actually think she's reasonably clued in about the implications of Brexit and realises the insane ultra-Brexiteers are willing to burn the house down. She's also sanguine about the impossibility of reversing Brexit so is genuinely seeking a compromise. However, by caving early on to the notion that Brexit means leaving the single market and customs union, she's boxed herself into a corner where there is actually no alternative to hard Brexit. Perhaps at this stage she is just the stoic captain standing on the burning bridge, waiting to go down with the ship. One way or another, events will surely soon take things out of her hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:34 pm 
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tulip wrote:
The Tories have no intention of negotiating a soft Brexit, it's hard Brexit all the way. Everything they're doing now is play acting to run down the clock.


The Tories don't have a unified position, May might want another referendum

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:36 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
Is there any masterplan or does this thing just bob along from day to day?

What was the point of the Chequers showdown, and loss of cabinet ministers, if May is going to bend to Rees-Mogg's ERC in a way that undermines her own masterplan?


My immediate feeling was she knows the chequers proposal was never going to get anywhere with the EU so she might as well agree to the amendments to shut up the hardliners, at least temporarily, when it get's pushed back she can blame the EU rather than it being her fault for not adding them.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:02 pm 
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BottomsUp wrote:
Ixelles wrote:
Is there any masterplan or does this thing just bob along from day to day?

What was the point of the Chequers showdown, and loss of cabinet ministers, if May is going to bend to Rees-Mogg's ERC in a way that undermines her own masterplan?


My immediate feeling was she knows the chequers proposal was never going to get anywhere with the EU so she might as well agree to the amendments to shut up the hardliners, at least temporarily, when it get's pushed back she can blame the EU rather than it being her fault for not adding them.

Allowing the idiocratic Tory right to derail actually cements May's position. The EU and Labour (following the collapse of the current government.) can be blamed for the lackk of a deal on one side, with Moggy and chums blamed for the lack of a soft Brexit. There's a big subplot of 'i told you so' being crafted.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:29 pm 
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BottomsUp wrote:
My immediate feeling was she knows the chequers proposal was never going to get anywhere with the EU so she might as well agree to the amendments to shut up the hardliners, at least temporarily, when it get's pushed back she can blame the EU rather than it being her fault for not adding them.

That sounds about right.

As I and others have pointed out, the Remain side is weaker - both in parliament and the electorate - than most imagine.

yoganmahew wrote:
Allowing the idiocratic Tory right to derail actually cements May's position. The EU and Labour (following the collapse of the current government.) can be blamed for the lackk of a deal on one side, with Moggy and chums blamed for the lack of a soft Brexit. There's a big subplot of 'I told you so' being crafted.

This works both ways - the Brexiteers are utterly determined that the agenda will not be set by the EU, neither will the terms of negotiation and are determined to drive home that the outcome is up for grabs and is not a fait accompli. The UK is not Greece or Ireland and can severely damage the EU economy if it doesnt get what it wants.
What many call a 'hard brexit' is in effect a recession in the EU and a depression in UK, Ireland and select parts of the EU economy.

Lets not overlook how unstable Merkels own position is and how open she is to the German car industry, for example.
The idea that the EU has the whip hand in a one sided negotiation is fantasy.

There is no chance of another referendum and little chance of anything other than Brexit broadly on the UKs terms.
The electorate and Parliament are both onside and the Brexiteers seem prepared to topple the government.
All this is designed to signal that the UKs negotiating position stance is not that of a pleading supplicant.
And it plays very well with the electorate, left and right.....


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:36 pm 
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I guess labour voting for a CU backstop today puts a firm floor on brexit as we continue from here. Barnier can turn the screw knowing an alternative government that will meet the EU's basic red lines is waiting in the wings.

It's like pincer movement from here, Barnier head on and corbyn from the rear.

Pound is sliding again, a few big job cuts announcements by the likes of Nissan and the mood will turn.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:42 pm 
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Sosthenes wrote:
how open she is to the German car industry, for example.
The idea that the EU has the whip hand in a one sided negotiation is fantasy.

There is no chance of another referendum and little chance of anything other than Brexit broadly on the UKs terms.
The electorate and Parliament are both onside and the Brexiteers seem prepared to topple the government.
All this is designed to signal that the UKs negotiating position stance is not that of a pleading supplicant.
And it plays very well with the electorate, left and right.....

Pah, there may be economic difficulties in Ireland following a hard Brexit, but the German car industry will be delighted not to have the competition of the British. It's worth the tax deductible write offs to remove a competitive rival. Don't forget, the UK loses out on all the EU free trade deals, not just trade into the EU itself.

The British are not even supplicant, beggars for scraps is what they are at this stage.

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