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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:41 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Press conference underway with EU response to the white paper and Theresa May's Belfast speech. Barnier started very diplomatically and said the white paper was a starting point for negotiations, although he pointed out that it's clear from the goings on in the UK that it's not even agreed there yet. But he added a few points:

  • The EU will continue to negotiate according to Council directives (i.e. no sweet deal for non-members)
  • Max Fac (even the new alt version) may not be practical or even legal (allowing a 3rd party to collect tariffs)
  • The EU isn't interested in any extra bureaucracy (with undertones of "why would we pay for this shit?")
  • The UK said it would perform any checks that normally happen at an EU border, but this doesn't cover agrifoods, GMOs etc. where only regulatory alignment could do the trick
  • The UK's proposal only covers goods, but most goods come with services so what's to stop the UK undercutting or otherwise unfairly competing with the EU on services?

Barnier said the EU would look "constructively" at UK proposals :x
Also insisted that an "all-weather backstop" on the NI border is an absolute prerequisite to an agreement. Not asking for a border between NI and UK, but the UK is going to have to figure something out. This is bad news for May who has asked the EU for extra flexibility. This issue to be discussed next week. Emphasised that the whole deal is an international legal treaty, so absolute legal certainty and clarity is required.

First press question was from a Guardian reporter asking Barnier if his speech was a polite way of saying no to the UK. :x

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:27 pm 
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The most reckless utterance of May was referring to a parity of esteem between NI and Britain, as if the GFA was a Belfast/London agreement and not between Dublin/London about NI.

Actually saying she was reckless is giving her the benefit of doubt. She's playing with fire.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:02 pm 
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catbear wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
catbear wrote:
Plus with a Scottish remerger looming the rump will be left rather boxed in.

Switzerland are also "boxed in" so how do they fly?

With negotiated agreements I presume built over time.

The UK seems to expect the EU to provide the solution.


Indeed. Detailed legislation linked here: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/ai ... zerland_en
Makes for a fascinating read, overall.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:02 pm 
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Lads, all this talk of the UK being boxed into their own airspace is a red herring. If we can allow American warplanes to land at Shannon, then a deal can be struck to allow British planes to fly over the EU. I think it's a mistake for Varadkar to be make emotional and provocative statements on sensitive matters during the negotiations, this is the prerogative of the English.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:10 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
Lads, all this talk of the UK being boxed into their own airspace is a red herring. If we can allow American warplanes to land at Shannon, then a deal can be struck to allow British planes to fly over the EU. I think it's a mistake for Varadkar to be make emotional and provocative statements on sensitive matters during the negotiations, this is the prerogative of the English.


Taoiseach Leo Varadkar wrote:
If they want their planes to fly over our skies, they would need to take that into account. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can’t take back your waters and then expect to take back other people’s sky.


I believe Leo's statement was a response to the Brits suggesting that they might block Ireland's access to Britain's fishing waters.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:13 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
Lads, all this talk of the UK being boxed into their own airspace is a red herring. If we can allow American warplanes to land at Shannon, then a deal can be struck to allow British planes to fly over the EU. I think it's a mistake for Varadkar to be make emotional and provocative statements on sensitive matters during the negotiations, this is the prerogative of the English.

Planes simply can't fly with signing up to existing conventions. So far the UKs strategy is to wait for the world to realign around it.

They're such great prankster! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:27 pm 
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The entire story of Aviation in the EU, or even anywhere in the world, is devilishly complex. Unfortunately the discussion is being conducted at the intellectual level of grunting.

Firstly, there is the Chicago convention on freedoms of Air Travel. This is a treaty that almost every country in the world has signed up to and dates from the forties. This means that neither the EU nor the UK can prevent the other from traveling in each other's air space. All nations have the right to make flights across another state's territories and to make stops without obtaining prior permission. To prevent another nation from operating flights in your air space is an act of war. Not rhetorical war, actual war. Based on this one can say that air travel will have a legal basis to continue after Brexit, right?

Well here is where it starts to fall apart. There is no such thing as unconstrained freedom. All rights are limited. Saying that yes, ok, you have a right to fly planes through our air space does not mean that one can fly any plane at all flown by any old clown. All pilots and all air frames that fly in the EU airspace must be certified as trained and airworthy by the relevant part of the EU, the European Aviation and Safety Agency, the EASA. All Pilot's licenses are issued under the umbrella of the EASA. All aviation maintenance yard worker are certified as qualified by the EASA. No one even so much as changes a light bulb on an airplane without being certified as being qualified to do so by the EASA. Once Brexit happens no British Pilots have a license to fly anymore. No maintenance staff are qualified to do routine work. No planes are certified as air worth. They all expire on date of Brexit.

No licenses or air worth certificates means that planes can not fly. There are many different legal reasons why planes can't fly. It has nothing to do with retaliation or any crap like that. Airlines and insurance companies simply can not allow them to fly. Can you imagine what would happen in the scenario that there was an air crash and the plane or pilot didn't have a license?

Then there is a little known about agency called Eurocontrol. It's not little, it's actually massive but largely unknown. Eurocontrol predates the entire European project and manages air traffic control throughout continental Europe. Over the last few decades Eurocontrol has largely been incorporated into the EU and expanded greatly over what it was originally setup as. Without EU membership British access to Eurocontrol goes into a legal quagmire. The UK de-facto no longer has access to Eurocontrol. This means it is not clear if British airplanes will be able to route international flights through Eurocontrol's air traffic control. The general feeling is that Britain will no longer have access to air traffic control in European air space after Brexit.

Then there is international flights to the US for example. EASA has a cross agreement with America about standards. After Brexit these cross agreements come to an end and need to be replaced with something else. There is nothing else to fall back on.

Brexit means that all of the legal infrastructure comes to an end. There are those that think the EU will cave in at the last minute and allow access to air space. It doesn't work like that, there is no legal frame work to do so.

The UK doesn't seem to understand that it is playing chicken with a physical object, a rule book. One can get as angry as one wants at the rule book, but the book doesn't care; it's a book!


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:37 pm 
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The Curious One wrote:
The entire story of Aviation in the EU, or even anywhere in the world, is devilishly complex. Unfortunately the discussion is being conducted at the intellectual level of grunting.

Firstly, there is the Chicago convention on freedoms of Air Travel. This is a treaty that almost every country in the world has signed up to and dates from the forties. This means that neither the EU nor the UK can prevent the other from traveling in each other's air space. All nations have the right to make flights across another state's territories and to make stops without obtaining prior permission. To prevent another nation from operating flights in your air space is an act of war. Not rhetorical war, actual war. Based on this one can say that air travel will have a legal basis to continue after Brexit, right?

Well here is where it starts to fall apart. There is no such thing as unconstrained freedom. All rights are limited. Saying that yes, ok, you have a right to fly planes through our air space does not mean that one can fly any plane at all flown by any old clown. All pilots and all air frames that fly in the EU airspace must be certified as trained and airworthy by the relevant part of the EU, the European Aviation and Safety Agency, the EASA. All Pilot's licenses are issued under the umbrella of the EASA. All aviation maintenance yard worker are certified as qualified by the EASA. No one even so much as changes a light bulb on an airplane without being certified as being qualified to do so by the EASA. Once Brexit happens no British Pilots have a license to fly anymore. No maintenance staff are qualified to do routine work. No planes are certified as air worth. They all expire on date of Brexit.

No licenses or air worth certificates means that planes can not fly. There are many different legal reasons why planes can't fly. It has nothing to do with retaliation or any crap like that. Airlines and insurance companies simply can not allow them to fly. Can you imagine what would happen in the scenario that there was an air crash and the plane or pilot didn't have a license?

Then there is a little known about agency called Eurocontrol. It's not little, it's actually massive but largely unknown. Eurocontrol predates the entire European project and manages air traffic control throughout continental Europe. Over the last few decades Eurocontrol has largely been incorporated into the EU and expanded greatly over what it was originally setup as. Without EU membership British access to Eurocontrol goes into a legal quagmire. The UK de-facto no longer has access to Eurocontrol. This means it is not clear if British airplanes will be able to route international flights through Eurocontrol's air traffic control. The general feeling is that Britain will no longer have access to air traffic control in European air space after Brexit.

Then there is international flights to the US for example. EASA has a cross agreement with America about standards. After Brexit these cross agreements come to an end and need to be replaced with something else. There is nothing else to fall back on.

Brexit means that all of the legal infrastructure comes to an end. There are those that think the EU will cave in at the last minute and allow access to air space. It doesn't work like that, there is no legal frame work to do so.

The UK doesn't seem to understand that it is playing chicken with a physical object, a rule book. One can get as angry as one wants at the rule book, but the book doesn't care; it's a book!


Youve been waiting since 2009 to get that post in, havent you? :lol:


The only reason May was in NI today was to keep the animals quiet; you never startle an animal about to be slaughtered, always calm it.

Looks like a UI is on the way, piecemeal perhaps, but clearly its coming.

I think Leo might be worrying about this more than anything; another million or so added to the books and maybe 10% of them militantly opposed to the whole idea.... oh dear.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:50 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
  • The EU will continue to negotiate according to Council directives (i.e. no sweet deal for non-members)
  • Max Fac (even the new alt version) may not be practical or even legal (allowing a 3rd party to collect tariffs)
  • The EU isn't interested in any extra bureaucracy (with undertones of "why would we pay for this shit?")
  • The UK said it would perform any checks that normally happen at an EU border, but this doesn't cover agrifoods, GMOs etc. where only regulatory alignment could do the trick
  • The UK's proposal only covers goods, but most goods come with services so what's to stop the UK undercutting or otherwise unfairly competing with the EU on services?

The ball is now in the UK's court, and the only realistic way forward is to tear up, or vastly water down Theresa May's facilitated customs agreement.

The Moggite faction in the Conservative party have torpedoed any notion of Brexit-lite. The EU on the other hand have affirmed time and time again that core principles of the EU will not be violated to appease a leaving member. When you look at the options, by the process of elimination, both parties really only have one option that is acceptable to both, and least destructive.

  • Remain in the EU - a non-starter
  • A close Norway/Switzerland type arrangement - rejected by the Moggite faction and parliament
  • A looser Turkey style customs union arrangement - rejected by the Moggite faction and parliament
  • A total exit, but with a basic free trade agreement (Australia/Canada/Japan model) - acceptable to the EU and the UK government
  • A total exit under WTO rules - a worst case scenario that is probably even recognised by the Moggites

Hopefully this weeks events will have marked a watershed in ending the notion that the UK can have their cake and eat it. Like wise, the EU will have to accept that the British government have taken the position to leave the EU without a close relationship. The only issue that does remain that looks insoluble to me as of this moment is Northern Ireland. I suspect that is where the focus will be in the coming months.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:09 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
The only issue that does remain that looks insoluble to me as of this moment is Northern Ireland. I suspect that is where the focus will be in the coming months.

Barnier talked about this at length today. He was absolutely adamant -- there will be no deal and no transition without NI being sorted. It will not be kicked to touch beyond October and must be sorted by then. He wants an urgent focus on this starting next week. He also said the EU never asked for a border in the Irish Sea and that issue needs to be "de-dramatised". But he also pointed out that the UK agreed to no border with Ireland in December and confirmed its commitment in March. He wants no more than what Theresa May has already agreed to. May's problem is that there's no easy way to implement what she promised, while mollifying the Mogglodytes.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:56 pm 
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catbear wrote:
HouseBuyer wrote:
Lads, all this talk of the UK being boxed into their own airspace is a red herring. If we can allow American warplanes to land at Shannon, then a deal can be struck to allow British planes to fly over the EU. I think it's a mistake for Varadkar to be make emotional and provocative statements on sensitive matters during the negotiations, this is the prerogative of the English.

Planes simply can't fly with signing up to existing conventions. So far the UKs strategy is to wait for the world to realign around it.

They're such great prankster! :D


Pretty much, if Richard North is to be believed. Aviation will be one huge mess to untangle for the Brits.

North's link: http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86832
EU's Notice to Stakeholders: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-aviation-safety.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:46 pm 
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Self-fulfilling prophecy going according to plan -- the Mogglodytes' impossible proposal gets shot down in flames by the EU, butthurt Ultras scream about Brussels aggression...


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:20 am 
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Well there are plenty of intetested bystanders in the other EU countries watching this unfold. It is presented at face value as the crazy Brits without a plan. But the future of the European superstate is very much under challenge, in various corners of Italy, Hungary, Austria and elsewhere.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:30 pm 
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Italy and Hungary couldn't survive outside of the EU. Fact.


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