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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:19 am 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

However, the EU bigwig block is an increasingly isolated entity in political terms, even within its own sphere of influence ie its own borders, due to in large part (ironically enough), its disavowal of those same geographical delineations. Further irony attaches to the suggestion that the Brexit negotiations may ultimately falter (ostensibly) on the back of a border issue encompassing the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone ie the EU that facilitates the undocumented entry of milions into its own territories, will in turn defend to the metaphorical death the integrity of its own border with the UK.....cosmic joker at it again.....

Broadly speaking, when viewed from afar, despite the high living standards (for some), Western European society appears to be in decline with a creeping disintegration of social cohesion generally as well as a growing disconnect between the elites and a significant section of the indigenus populations. Assuming Trump maintains his current course, the mainstream EU is to be seemingly hemmed in on all sides (to include within its own EU borders) by opponents who reject its world view. Even if Brexit was to be avoided, it looks like the worm has turned and that the golden era of peaceful US-protected consumption is likely at an end.

A New World Order so to speak, just not the one they had in mind perhaps?
The US is only hurting itself under Trump.
Furthermore the more the US isolates itself, the more it pushes other countries and blocs to agree trade deals - the EU and Japan, Mexico, Mercosur etc. If/when the US turns outwards again it will find a world already united in standards and rules (e.g. protection of identification of origin of food etc)


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:19 pm 
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[urlhttp://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86949]Richard North gives up on a successful Brexit[/url].
Quote:
I liken Brexit to sitting in an old-fashioned airliner crossing the Atlantic in the days when range was marginal and strong headwinds could actually force aircraft to turn back. In these cases, pilots had to calculate their "point of no return", whence – once they were past it – would not have the range to get back safely.

In this case, I see us past the point of no return but with insufficient fuel to get to our destination. For the moment, the aircraft continues to fly as the cabin crew ply the passengers with food and drink. But up front, in the cockpit, the pilots know that they will never make landfall.

One wonders if Mrs May actually realises this. Whatever she does now, it is too late for a successful Brexit.


For a Brexiteer, he writes some very informative stuff on the implications and consequences of Brexit, especially on aviation and pharmaceuticals.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:58 am 
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superman wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:

However, the EU bigwig block is an increasingly isolated entity in political terms, even within its own sphere of influence ie its own borders, due to in large part (ironically enough), its disavowal of those same geographical delineations. Further irony attaches to the suggestion that the Brexit negotiations may ultimately falter (ostensibly) on the back of a border issue encompassing the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone ie the EU that facilitates the undocumented entry of milions into its own territories, will in turn defend to the metaphorical death the integrity of its own border with the UK.....cosmic joker at it again.....

Broadly speaking, when viewed from afar, despite the high living standards (for some), Western European society appears to be in decline with a creeping disintegration of social cohesion generally as well as a growing disconnect between the elites and a significant section of the indigenus populations. Assuming Trump maintains his current course, the mainstream EU is to be seemingly hemmed in on all sides (to include within its own EU borders) by opponents who reject its world view. Even if Brexit was to be avoided, it looks like the worm has turned and that the golden era of peaceful US-protected consumption is likely at an end.

A New World Order so to speak, just not the one they had in mind perhaps?
The US is only hurting itself under Trump.
Furthermore the more the US isolates itself, the more it pushes other countries and blocs to agree trade deals - the EU and Japan, Mexico, Mercosur etc. If/when the US turns outwards again it will find a world already united in standards and rules (e.g. protection of identification of origin of food etc)


The EU may not exist in a decade and the US economy is performing well under Trump with unemployment at its lowest since 1969. Nationalist and communalist sentiment along with protectionist economic policies are on the rise across the globe (not just in Trumplandia), especially in societies who were involved in the process of colonialism either as coloniser or colonised ie in many cases western multi-nationals (rightly or wrongly) are being cast as quasi-colonialist enterprises.

Solid statements to the effect that the world is charting an inevitable course toward a globally regulated neo-liberal utopia/dystopia is up there with predictions for the Grand National ie its possible but a bit of a long shot.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:09 am 
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london_irish wrote:
[urlhttp://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86949]Richard North gives up on a successful Brexit[/url].
Quote:
I liken Brexit to sitting in an old-fashioned airliner crossing the Atlantic in the days when range was marginal and strong headwinds could actually force aircraft to turn back. In these cases, pilots had to calculate their "point of no return", whence – once they were past it – would not have the range to get back safely.

In this case, I see us past the point of no return but with insufficient fuel to get to our destination. For the moment, the aircraft continues to fly as the cabin crew ply the passengers with food and drink. But up front, in the cockpit, the pilots know that they will never make landfall.

One wonders if Mrs May actually realises this. Whatever she does now, it is too late for a successful Brexit.


For a Brexiteer, he writes some very informative stuff on the implications and consequences of Brexit, especially on aviation and pharmaceuticals.



From the comments section....

Quote:
LONDON — The U.K. financial services sector could suffer as few as 5,000 job losses as a result of Brexit, according to a new estimate by the City of London Corporation — far lower than the industry had initially feared.

The figures come from an internal City report, to be released in September. In an interview with POLITICO, Lord Mayor of the City of London Charles Bowman said the analysis estimates that between 5,000 and 13,000 jobs will have gone by the U.K.’s leaving date of March 30 next year.


That is far lower than most previous estimates. In a widely cited report published in 2016, Oliver Wyman estimated that industry job losses could eventually be as high as 75,000 with banks and other institutions forced to move large numbers of staff to locations in the EU27. Xavier Rolet, the former chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, predicted job losses of over 200,000. But the Bank of England has estimated Day One job losses of around 10,000 in the case of a hard Brexit.

In the two years following the U.K.’s EU referendum though, the much-feared exodus of bankers and financiers from London has not materialized. Firms are moving some operations, including trading and back-office functions, to cities in the EU27 like Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris, but there hasn’t been an uprooting of banks’ entire presence from the U.K. to the Continent. Bowman said that so far, 1,600 jobs have been earmarked to move.

One factor that explains the sunnier picture painted for the City in the second report is that while the 75,000 estimate in the first was effectively considering a no-deal scenario, the most recent analysis takes into account the stand-still transition period agreed provisionally in March. Under that deal, the U.K. would remain bound by EU rules, but without representation in Brussels. The transition will not happen though if agreement cannot be reached between Brussels and London on other major sticking points — notably a solution to the Irish border problem post Brexit.



https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ssion=true

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:24 pm 
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Quote:
Britain has produced a Brexit debate that is utterly dry, sterile, and completely lacking in imagination. Much of the commentary has shared three features: an exclusive focus on incredibly short-term factors that apparently proved decisive; a clear and concerted attempt to try and delegitimize the result by implying that either voters were duped or that the Leave campaign was crooked; and absolutely no engagement whatsoever with the growing pile of evidence that we now have on why people actually voted for Brexit. Far from staging an irrational outburst, most Leavers shared a clear and coherent outlook and had formed their views long before the campaign even began.

What seems remarkable to me is the sheer amount of energy that has been devoted to undermining or overturning the result versus that which has been devoted to exploring what led to this moment in the first place. There is no doubt that some of the short-term factors mentioned above were important. Brexit campaigners did make misleading claims and did spend more money than they should have. But this was also a campaign that saw the pro-Remain Prime Minister David Cameron suggest that Brexit might trigger World War Three, London’s elite prophesize about financial Armageddon, and political and economic leaders from across the globe descend on Britain to issue similarly dire warnings, including President Obama. In short, in the history of political campaigns this one was definitely not an example of best practice.

Perhaps I was woefully naïve, but in the days after the referendum I felt excited; anxious about the short-term fallout but excited about the long-overdue debate that I assumed was en route; a national focus on addressing the divides, inequalities, and grievances that had led to this moment. Perhaps this was what Britain needed, I thought, a radical shock that would throw light on what had been simmering beneath the surface for decades. I also assumed that my academic colleagues would be with me. But the debate never arrived.

Today, looking back, I see that most people never really had an interest in exploring what underpinned Brexit. To many on the liberal Left, Brexit is to be opposed, not understood. There has been no conversation about why people voted for Brexit because conversations require a reply. One side has spoken but, with a few rare exceptions, almost nobody on the other side has thought about what such a reply might be.

Instead, they have sought to overturn it, force a re-run of the vote or water down Brexit to such an extent that it is basically the status quo. Few have seriously considered what the political effects of these outcomes would be. One prominent journalist recently tweeted that reversing Brexit would be a “hammer blow to Western populist-nationalism.” But I suspect that it would be quite the opposite; an erosion of public trust, hardened social divides, and the political equivalent of pouring gasoline on a populist fire


Quote:

All revolts are symptoms of deeper currents. The 2016 referendum offered an opportunity for people to express their view about EU membership, but this always looked set to become an outlet for more fundamental divides in British society that had long been present and will be with us for some time yet. Against this backdrop, and putting the more immediate negotiations over Brexit to one side, Britain faces many challenges but two are especially key.

The first is how to resolve the deep value divides that found their full expression during the 2016 referendum. These were exacerbated by a general election that followed less than one year later, and which provided further evidence of a possible long-term realignment. While the (now clearly pro-Brexit) Conservative Party hoovered up more working-class voters, non-graduates and former UK Independence Party voters, the more radically left-wing Labour Party made its strongest advances among the liberal middle-class, millennial graduates, and in pro-Remain districts. This value divide has become far more central to explaining electoral behaviour than social class and could yet force a more radical realignment of British politics.


https://quillette.com/2018/08/03/britai ... st-revolt/

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:38 pm 
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Remember the stories about the fights at the Tesco marked down shelves in Ireland back when the squeeze was on in Ireland?

Dropped into my Tesco of two years in north England yesterday and they've now have an organised supervised queue with security guards. I'm sorry I didn't take a pic, it was bizarre to see the long queue taking up a good quarter of the back of the store.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:50 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Quote:
What seems remarkable to me is the sheer amount of energy that has been devoted to undermining or overturning the result versus that which has been devoted to exploring what led to this moment in the first place. There is no doubt that some of the short-term factors mentioned above were important. Brexit campaigners did make misleading claims and did spend more money than they should have. But this was also a campaign that saw the pro-Remain Prime Minister David Cameron suggest that Brexit might trigger World War Three, London’s elite prophesize about financial Armageddon, and political and economic leaders from across the globe descend on Britain to issue similarly dire warnings, including President Obama. In short, in the history of political campaigns this one was definitely not an example of best practice.

Perhaps I was woefully naïve, but in the days after the referendum I felt excited; anxious about the short-term fallout but excited about the long-overdue debate that I assumed was en route; a national focus on addressing the divides, inequalities, and grievances that had led to this moment. Perhaps this was what Britain needed, I thought, a radical shock that would throw light on what had been simmering beneath the surface for decades. I also assumed that my academic colleagues would be with me. But the debate never arrived.

Today, looking back, I see that most people never really had an interest in exploring what underpinned Brexit. To many on the liberal Left, Brexit is to be opposed, not understood. There has been no conversation about why people voted for Brexit because conversations require a reply. One side has spoken but, with a few rare exceptions, almost nobody on the other side has thought about what such a reply might be.

Instead, they have sought to overturn it, force a re-run of the vote or water down Brexit to such an extent that it is basically the status quo. Few have seriously considered what the political effects of these outcomes would be. One prominent journalist recently tweeted that reversing Brexit would be a “hammer blow to Western populist-nationalism.” But I suspect that it would be quite the opposite; an erosion of public trust, hardened social divides, and the political equivalent of pouring gasoline on a populist fire


https://quillette.com/2018/08/03/britai ... st-revolt/


Good article; and interesting site that I had not seen before. Just spent an enlightening hour browsing it. Thanks for posting.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:17 pm 
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Barmiest Loon wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Quote:
What seems remarkable to me is the sheer amount of energy that has been devoted to undermining or overturning the result versus that which has been devoted to exploring what led to this moment in the first place. There is no doubt that some of the short-term factors mentioned above were important. Brexit campaigners did make misleading claims and did spend more money than they should have. But this was also a campaign that saw the pro-Remain Prime Minister David Cameron suggest that Brexit might trigger World War Three, London’s elite prophesize about financial Armageddon, and political and economic leaders from across the globe descend on Britain to issue similarly dire warnings, including President Obama. In short, in the history of political campaigns this one was definitely not an example of best practice.

Perhaps I was woefully naïve, but in the days after the referendum I felt excited; anxious about the short-term fallout but excited about the long-overdue debate that I assumed was en route; a national focus on addressing the divides, inequalities, and grievances that had led to this moment. Perhaps this was what Britain needed, I thought, a radical shock that would throw light on what had been simmering beneath the surface for decades. I also assumed that my academic colleagues would be with me. But the debate never arrived.

Today, looking back, I see that most people never really had an interest in exploring what underpinned Brexit. To many on the liberal Left, Brexit is to be opposed, not understood. There has been no conversation about why people voted for Brexit because conversations require a reply. One side has spoken but, with a few rare exceptions, almost nobody on the other side has thought about what such a reply might be.

Instead, they have sought to overturn it, force a re-run of the vote or water down Brexit to such an extent that it is basically the status quo. Few have seriously considered what the political effects of these outcomes would be. One prominent journalist recently tweeted that reversing Brexit would be a “hammer blow to Western populist-nationalism.” But I suspect that it would be quite the opposite; an erosion of public trust, hardened social divides, and the political equivalent of pouring gasoline on a populist fire


https://quillette.com/2018/08/03/britai ... st-revolt/


Good article; and interesting site that I had not seen before. Just spent an enlightening hour browsing it. Thanks for posting.

Enlightenin? More likely seeking affirmation of existing opinion.
There was no thought put into what happens next and its a real mess now. The Tories haven't decided what it wants but everyone is meant to row in the same direction. Just more muddled thinking.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:15 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Yes, but, you have to, you know, join, get an agreement, sign on the dotted line, spit on palm and shake, pinky promise, submit to the jurisdiction of the ECJ...

And: "Although Eurocontrol is not an agency of the European Union, the EU has delegated parts of its Single European Sky regulations to Eurocontrol, making it the central organization for coordination and planning of air traffic control for all of Europe" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocontrol Eurocontrol coordinate rulemaking for the sky :)

There's also this chappie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_ ... ation_Area
Again, not restricted to member states, but rules are mediated by ECJ.

That pesky red line again.

The whole open skies debate is interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_skies The bit on military regulation was news to me! "The Treaty on Open Skies, signed in Helsinki in 1992 is a multinational sacrifice of air sovereignty to enhance military transparency and build confidence by permitting observation flights over almost the full territory of each signatory state". Imagine sacrificing sovereignty!



I'm sure one of Ireland's 'representatives' at Bilderberg 2018, the Eurocontrol DG Eamonn Brennan is keeping us abreast of developments anyway.

https://www.eurocontrol.int/bio/eamonn-brennan


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:24 am 
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werpen wrote:
Barmiest Loon wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Quote:
What seems remarkable to me is the sheer amount of energy that has been devoted to undermining or overturning the result versus that which has been devoted to exploring what led to this moment in the first place. There is no doubt that some of the short-term factors mentioned above were important. Brexit campaigners did make misleading claims and did spend more money than they should have. But this was also a campaign that saw the pro-Remain Prime Minister David Cameron suggest that Brexit might trigger World War Three, London’s elite prophesize about financial Armageddon, and political and economic leaders from across the globe descend on Britain to issue similarly dire warnings, including President Obama. In short, in the history of political campaigns this one was definitely not an example of best practice.

Perhaps I was woefully naïve, but in the days after the referendum I felt excited; anxious about the short-term fallout but excited about the long-overdue debate that I assumed was en route; a national focus on addressing the divides, inequalities, and grievances that had led to this moment. Perhaps this was what Britain needed, I thought, a radical shock that would throw light on what had been simmering beneath the surface for decades. I also assumed that my academic colleagues would be with me. But the debate never arrived.

Today, looking back, I see that most people never really had an interest in exploring what underpinned Brexit. To many on the liberal Left, Brexit is to be opposed, not understood. There has been no conversation about why people voted for Brexit because conversations require a reply. One side has spoken but, with a few rare exceptions, almost nobody on the other side has thought about what such a reply might be.

Instead, they have sought to overturn it, force a re-run of the vote or water down Brexit to such an extent that it is basically the status quo. Few have seriously considered what the political effects of these outcomes would be. One prominent journalist recently tweeted that reversing Brexit would be a “hammer blow to Western populist-nationalism.” But I suspect that it would be quite the opposite; an erosion of public trust, hardened social divides, and the political equivalent of pouring gasoline on a populist fire


https://quillette.com/2018/08/03/britai ... st-revolt/


Good article; and interesting site that I had not seen before. Just spent an enlightening hour browsing it. Thanks for posting.

Enlightenin? More likely seeking affirmation of existing opinion.
There was no thought put into what happens next and its a real mess now. The Tories haven't decided what it wants but everyone is meant to row in the same direction. Just more muddled thinking.


I read the 'enlightening' aspect as applying to the broader content of the website which contains a lot more than 1 article on Brexit.

Re the rest of your post, again I think you've missed the point. The author was suggesting that Brexit was the culmination of 30/40 years of disintegrating social cohesion in the UK....and that, regardless of the ultimate outcome, it could herald the demarcation of new political faultlines centred around what he terms 'values' rather than the fake left v right neo-liberal dichotomy that has held sway since any of us have been old enough to read or write.

The fact that neither Labour nor the Tories are united on the issue, with many within both parties having more in common with members in the opposition camp than within their own party, could be said to evidence this to some degree. Hes suggesting that Brexit is an outcome/malaise (depending on your perspective) for which very few appear anyway interested in seeking to identify the root causes....simply resorting to the type of lazy negative labelling he highlights above.

If the past few years has taught us anything its that grandiose self-reverence coupled with sneering condescension are not necessarily the best tools to employ when courting popular opinion ....although I suppose the old maxim 'if at first you dont succeed etc" could be the approach here....

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:50 pm 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
The EU may not exist in a decade


I'd like to put a bet on that. The UK on the other hand...

Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
and the US economy is performing well under Trump with unemployment at its lowest since 1969.

Not really due to Trump though- trump has merely made things worse than they could have been.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:32 am 
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Interesting HardTalk program on BBC News Channel tonight. Stephen Sackur interviewed Sophie in 't Veld, Dutch MEP and deputy to Michel Barnier in the Brexit negotiations. Replying to criticisms of EU intransigence on a trade deal, in 't Veld put it that the integrity of the EU internal market was never, ever on the agenda. She says Brexiteers are flailing around looking for people to blame when their promises of "Brexit heaven" turned out to be lies. She pointed out that the Brits were leading proponents of the internal market which they helped architect. While she agreed Brexit would damage her own Dutch constituency as well as the UK, it was still better than if the internal market were to disintegrate.

Her position seems to be that the Brexiteers have spent so much of the last two years talking only to each other, and telling their consituents that the UK was much too important for the EU not to do a deal with, that they have ignored the constant warnings of the EU side about non-negotiable elements of EU trade rules. She says the message is only now sinking in about the reality of Brexit. Rather than trying to shift the blame, Boris Johnson and others need to "man up" and take responsibility for what they have achieved.

She claims the EU are open to compromise and very much hope for a deal, but there were elements of the UK's white paper that were simply never on the table from the EU's point of view.

It all sounded fairly grim.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:09 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Her position seems to be that the Brexiteers have spent so much of the last two years talking only to each other, and telling their consituents that the UK was much too important for the EU not to do a deal with, that they have ignored the constant warnings of the EU side about non-negotiable elements of EU trade rules. She says the message is only now sinking in about the reality of Brexit. Rather than trying to shift the blame, Boris Johnson and others need to "man up" and take responsibility for what they have achieved.

She claims the EU are open to compromise and very much hope for a deal, but there were elements of the UK's white paper that were simply never on the table from the EU's point of view.

It all sounded fairly grim.

That is an entirely accurate picture. It is extraordinary how delusional the brexiters (and UK government) are and the extent to which their rhetoric (and UK newspapers) continue to ignore reality.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:20 pm 
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Sterling at 90p today for first time in 9 months. Expected to drop further


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:31 pm 
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I thought these guys were spoofing when they introduced themselves. Actually quite a fascinating conversation, even if one can't vouch for it being 100% gospel.


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