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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:02 pm 
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I know my residency right in the UK is entirely dependent on a domestic act of Westminster, which can be altered, and after the Windrush affair all arrangements are vulnerable.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:07 am 
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JohnnyTheFox wrote:
I'm curious as to why you assume this. Given that Ireland is permitted an independent visa policy who would seek to prevent it from continuing with the British Irish Visa Scheme and why?


Apologies. I hadnt seen your previous post prior to my posting above.

We're agreed that, post-Brexit, UK nationals will no longer have the option of exercising EU Treaty rights in Ireland due to the obvious fact that UK nationals will no longer be citizens of the EU.

Re the potential issues around the CTA, my reasoning would be that possibly the largest constituent element behind the Brexit vote was a want on the part of many English people to curb migration levels from the EU. So, post-Brexit, I would suspect that Poles or Lithuanians will most likely not be permitted visa-free travel to the UK. It may be visa on arrival or whatever but to retain free access to the UK for EU citizens would surely fly in the face of the rationale behind Brexit. Assuming this to be the case, and that such persons will obviously retain the right to visa free travel to Ireland as EU citizens, surely that makes it a practical impossibility for the UK to inhabit a CTA with Ireland? Following on from this logic, its arguable that retention of the CTA would actually necessitate a hard border on the island of Ireland as an open, unmanned border would permit unchecked visa-free access to the UK via Ireland for Romanians, Bulgarians etc. Obviously, nobody actually knows the content of what will ultimately be agreed but in the context of a no-deal Brexit scenario, I would guess that this is the most likely scenario....thereby raising obvious and serious questions with regard to the continued existence of the CTA, especially in the contezxt of the many issues around the Irish border. Its worth noting (again), that a border of sorts at the Irish sea would deal with this issue with ease.

Re the British-Irish Visa scheme, I may be mis-reading but you appear to be suggesting that a visa issued to somebody under that scheme only permits entry into one of the two CTA countries ie Ireland or the UK. Im pretty sure thats not the case and that a BIVS visa permits unlimited movement within the CTA until such time as the visa holder leaves the CTA at which point they require a new visa to re-enter ie you may enter at Heathrow and travel onward to Dublin via Holyhead on the same visa. In effect, its a mini-Schengen-type scenario (that only applies to people from two countries) whereby a visa issued by the Irish authorities is accepted by the authorities in Holyhead or Heathrow as being equivalent to one issued by the authorities in the UK....and vice versa. While you note that its a bilateral agreement and nothing to dow ith the EU, given the likely political climate in a post-no deal Brexit scenario, I would have serious doubts as to whether such an arrangement would continue ie Irish visa officers issuing what are effectively UK visas. Obviously (again), this is supposition as none of us really know what will happen.

Further, I would stress that I dont actually believe that any of the practical problems associated with Brexit are in any way insurmountable. Officials within the UK and across the EU to inlcude Ireland are well capable of ironing things out between them and coming up with new work practices that take account of the new reality...if permitted. The problem arises at a political level. And the likelihood is that there will exist little or no political will, especially on the EU side, to seek out solutions that do not in some way inconvenience the UK. While the politicians will obviously come under pressure from business to smooth things over asap, the continued existence of the Brussels gravy train may rest on the UK being humiliated sufficiently so as to dissuade the Hungarians, Italians or Poles from following the UK out of the EU.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:17 am 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
re the potential issues around the CTA, my reasoning would be that possibly the largest constituent element behind the Brexit vote was a want on the part of many English people to curb migration levels from the EU. So, post-Brexit

I don't think so. In my view it was a rejection of ex-EU immigration. Which doesn't make any sense, of course, since the UK govt already controls the levers of that door and chooses to leave it wide open, and leaving the EU will probably increase that immigration if anything.

But Brexit has never been much about sense. It is Tory jingoistic neuroticism combined with a scream of rage from a population fed up with various things.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:13 am 
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Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
JohnnyTheFox wrote:
I'm curious as to why you assume this. Given that Ireland is permitted an independent visa policy who would seek to prevent it from continuing with the British Irish Visa Scheme and why?


Apologies. I hadnt seen your previous post prior to my posting above.

We're agreed that, post-Brexit, UK nationals will no longer have the option of exercising EU Treaty rights in Ireland due to the obvious fact that UK nationals will no longer be citizens of the EU.

Re the potential issues around the CTA, my reasoning would be that possibly the largest constituent element behind the Brexit vote was a want on the part of many English people to curb migration levels from the EU. So, post-Brexit, I would suspect that Poles or Lithuanians will most likely not be permitted visa-free travel to the UK. It may be visa on arrival or whatever but to retain free access to the UK for EU citizens would surely fly in the face of the rationale behind Brexit. Assuming this to be the case, and that such persons will obviously retain the right to visa free travel to Ireland as EU citizens, surely that makes it a practical impossibility for the UK to inhabit a CTA with Ireland? Following on from this logic, its arguable that retention of the CTA would actually necessitate a hard border on the island of Ireland as an open, unmanned border would permit unchecked visa-free access to the UK via Ireland for Romanians, Bulgarians etc. Obviously, nobody actually knows the content of what will ultimately be agreed but in the context of a no-deal Brexit scenario, I would guess that this is the most likely scenario....thereby raising obvious and serious questions with regard to the continued existence of the CTA, especially in the contezxt of the many issues around the Irish border. Its worth noting (again), that a border of sorts at the Irish sea would deal with this issue with ease.

I think that is unlikely for a number of reasons.
- Curbing migration levels does not that require a visitor visa system be imposed on Poles or Lithuanians. It would be sufficient to allow them the status that the UK already affords to many other countries, both developing and developed; visa free visits for up to six months with no entitlement to work or access state supports. Anything else requires a residence permit.
- Ireland already has hundreds of thousands of residents from non-EU Eastern Europe, and all corners of Asia, Africa and South America, who are legally entitled to be in Ireland but are not entitled to enter the UK without first obtaining a UK visa. Their presence in Ireland over the last couple of decades has not necessitated a hard border between ourselves and the North.
- Post Brexit it is unlikely to be the case that Romanians and Bulgarians will flock through Ireland to lead underground lives in the UK. They are entitled to move to any of the countries of the EU and lead normal lives within the system, availing of normal job protections, access to health care and education for the children. Why on earth would they choose to be illegal immigrants in the UK instead?

Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
Re the British-Irish Visa scheme, I may be mis-reading but you appear to be suggesting that a visa issued to somebody under that scheme only permits entry into one of the two CTA countries ie Ireland or the UK. Im pretty sure thats not the case and that a BIVS visa permits unlimited movement within the CTA until such time as the visa holder leaves the CTA at which point they require a new visa to re-enter ie you may enter at Heathrow and travel onward to Dublin via Holyhead on the same visa. In effect, its a mini-Schengen-type scenario (that only applies to people from a small number of countries) whereby a visa issued by the Irish authorities is accepted by the authorities in Holyhead or Heathrow as being equivalent to one issued by the authorities in the UK....and vice versa. While you note that its a bilateral agreement and nothing to dow ith the EU, given the likely political climate in a post-no deal Brexit scenario, I would have serious doubts as to whether such an arrangement would continue ie Irish visa officers issuing what are effectively UK visas. Obviously (again), this is supposition as none of us really know what will happen.

There are two separate programmes; one is the reciprocal arrangement for Chinese and Indian citizens where the UK and Ireland both recognise visas issued by the other but you have to travel to the issuing country first. The second is a unilateral arrangement where Ireland recognises visas issued by the UK to nationals of about 25 countries, provided those nationals enter the UK first and then travel on to Ireland. This applies to short term visas only so I think it would only become controversial if the large numbers of Chinese or Indians arriving through Ireland to the UK then chose to go underground and work illegally. I also think that the UK might be motivated to continue and even expand the British-Irish Visa scheme as a symbol of the UK's ability to achieve international cooperation outside EU structures.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:54 am 
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JohnnyTheFox wrote:
I think that is unlikely for a number of reasons.
- Curbing migration levels does not that require a visitor visa system be imposed on Poles or Lithuanians. It would be sufficient to allow them the status that the UK already affords to many other countries, both developing and developed; visa free visits for up to six months with no entitlement to work or access state supports. Anything else requires a residence permit.
- Ireland already has hundreds of thousands of residents from non-EU Eastern Europe, and all corners of Asia, Africa and South America, who are legally entitled to be in Ireland but are not entitled to enter the UK without first obtaining a UK visa. Their presence in Ireland over the last couple of decades has not necessitated a hard border between ourselves and the North.
- Post Brexit it is unlikely to be the case that Romanians and Bulgarians will flock through Ireland to lead underground lives in the UK. They are entitled to move to any of the countries of the EU and lead normal lives within the system, availing of normal job protections, access to health care and education for the children. Why on earth would they choose to be illegal immigrants in the UK instead?


These are fair points....but, while obviously not an exact science, based on what I have read around the issue, the sense that I have got is that the level of migration from eastern Europe in particular played a large part in the Brexit vote. There appered to be a sense (misplaced or not) that Poles and others were taking jobs, lowering wages, causing rents to increase etc. This was such that many first and second geenration Indians and West Indians are said to have voted in favour of Brexit on the same basis. So I would be surprised if some genuine restrictions were not put in place. Otherwise, what was the point of the whole thing?

Similarly, re the border, if the intent of the entire exercise is/was to curb migration levels or indeed seek to vet potential terrorists etc ('take back control'), it would seem anomalous to have an entire stretch from Derry to Dundalk unmanned and wide open. There are any number of potentialities that could arise from such a scenario. The point made about EU citizens not needing to go to Britain given they have access to the entirety of the EU also seems entirely rational, but weve seen over the years that huge numbers of people, not just from the EU, appear to view the chance to live in the UK as something over and above the chance to live in France or Germany for example. Perhaps many such people operate within the cash economy and pehaps they have family connections etc in the UK and for them such issues trump any other considerations to include having a PPS number etc. But again, its obviously difficult to state anything with any great authority in advance of the final deal/no deal.



Quote:
There are two separate programmes; one is the reciprocal arrangement for Chinese and Indian citizens where the UK and Ireland both recognise visas issued by the other but you have to travel to the issuing country first. The second is a unilateral arrangement where Ireland recognises visas issued by the UK to nationals of about 25 countries, provided those nationals enter the UK first and then travel on to Ireland. This applies to short term visas only so I think it would only become controversial if the large numbers of Chinese or Indians arriving through Ireland to the UK then chose to go underground and work illegally. I also think that the UK might be motivated to continue and even expand the British-Irish Visa scheme as a symbol of the UK's ability to achieve international cooperation outside EU structures.


I was only aware of the reciprocal programme. Again, as Ive stated previously, as with practically every issue arising from Brexit there is no real bar to any of the practicalaties around the mechanics of such matters being ironed out in a short enough timeframe. However, it is quite likely that the political will may not exist to seek out such solutions in the short to mid term.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:40 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
Poacher turned gamekeeper wrote:
re the potential issues around the CTA, my reasoning would be that possibly the largest constituent element behind the Brexit vote was a want on the part of many English people to curb migration levels from the EU. So, post-Brexit

I don't think so. In my view it was a rejection of ex-EU immigration. Which doesn't make any sense, of course, since the UK govt already controls the levers of that door and chooses to leave it wide open, and leaving the EU will probably increase that immigration if anything.

But Brexit has never been much about sense. It is Tory jingoistic neuroticism combined with a scream of rage from a population fed up with various things.

Yes, this was the main reason for Brexit imho, and the influx from central Europe was the final straw for many.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:34 am 
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I'm a bit more sanguine about the status of Irish people in the UK. Given that 30% of people in Norn Iron hold Irish passports, and at a guess 20% on an exclusive basis, I can't see the British government changing the status of Irish people without opening up Pandora's box.

EU migration is certainly a priority to resolve (visas maybe?), but given that non EU migration is higher they might look to have an overall Oz style points system.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:09 am 
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The British position on the rights of Irish citizens in the UK has been clear from the outset even if there is no deal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... rexit-deal
Quote:
After March 2019 if there is no deal

If you are an Irish citizen you would continue to have the right to enter and remain in the UK, as now. You are not required to do anything to protect your status.

In addition, you would continue to enjoy the reciprocal rights associated with the CTA in the same way that British citizens in Ireland would if there is no deal. These rights include the right to work, study and vote, access to social welfare benefits and health services. Where required domestic legislation and agreements would be updated to ensure that the CTA rights continue to have a clear legal basis.

...

The CTA holds special importance to people in their daily lives: it goes to the heart of the relationship between these islands. The UK government is firmly committed to maintaining the CTA arrangements after the UK leaves the EU, an objective shared by the Crown Dependencies. The Irish Government has been clear also in its commitment to the continuation of the CTA. The CTA has proven to be resilient over the years and would continue to endure if there is no deal.

No one is calling for any change to the current arrangement, as the damage to both parties would be huge (remember there are 300,000 British citizens living in Ireland as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:24 am 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
No one is calling for any change to the current arrangement, as the damage to both parties would be huge (remember there are 300,000 British citizens living in Ireland as well.

Image

All my British friends in Ireland for over five years started their naturalisation process after the Brexit vote.

I believe Polish surpassed British as our largest immigrant group some years ago.

I've seen it used a few times but I don't know where the 300.000 figure comes from.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:27 pm 
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HouseBuyer wrote:
Quote:
The UK government is firmly committed to maintaining the CTA arrangements after the UK leaves the EU, an objective shared by the Crown Dependencies.

While I agree it's unlikely to change, the 'firm commitments' of the UK in recent times include the backstop agreement for NI to remain in the customs union. A firm commitment that lasted all of three months. Events move apace in England with the political landscape stuttering from non-sequitur to bilious non-statement without coming within an asses roar of consistency or principle.

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:00 am 
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Quote:

The surest way to raise a smile on a Polish border guard’s face is to mention Brexit buzzwords like “frictionless” and “invisible”. Brexit talks remain on a knife-edge, as British officials struggle to square the circle on the Border issue.

On the one hand, those anodyne adjectives describing the Irish Border from March 29th, when the UK is due to leave the EU. On the other, London’s promise to take back from Brussels control of its borders and political destiny. But 2,000km east of London, there is little room for constructive ambiguity.

Sitting in his office on Poland’s busiest border with Ukraine, four hours southeast of Warsaw, Cdr Robert Brychlik grins broadly and shakes his head when asked if an outer EU border can ever be frictionless or invisible.

The checkpoint is a chastening throwback to how things were before EU open borders and a sobering reminder of how things are beyond the bloc
“There is no way this is possible,” he says, because there is no technology in the world that can prevent queues.





Quote:

When Poland joined the EU – and Schengen – in 2004, it assumed responsibility for the bloc’s eastern wall. Some 14 years on, Mr Iwanczuk still remembers being made feel inferior by western colleagues who doubted that Poland was up to the job.

Now that Poland has achieved some of the highest border check standards in the EU, Mr Iwanczuk adopts a humourless smile when asked about what is starting to feel like the bad running joke of the day: the idea of a soft, invisible outer EU border in Ireland.

Looser border controls along the EU’s newest west wall, he says politely, could create problems stretching across the EU to here in the east.

“After our hard work here since 2004, it would be hard to accept that we do the work here and they don’t there.”

As Brexit talks go down to the wire, the only point of agreement on the Irish Border so far is that no pre-existing model will fit. The Scandinavian scenario between Norway and Sweden is for the optimists, while this Slavic scenario – with lights, checks, towers, delays, fences and uniformed guards – is for the pessimists.

Dorohusk is where Brexit Border magical thinking comes to die.



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/e ... -1.3666645

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:58 pm 
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Here is a question: How is it that Trump can strike up bi-laterals across the world and the UK can't do same in preparation of a change world or did I miss something?

What's the impediment?

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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:21 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
Here is a question: How is it that Trump can strike up bi-laterals across the world and the UK can't do same in preparation of a change world or did I miss something?

What's the impediment?


1. Trump hasn't struck any bilateral deals. He has renamed NAFTA. That's it. How have you come to believe that he's striking bi-lateral deals around the world?

2. The United States can say with some certainty what their relationship with the largest trading block in the world is going to be in two years time. This has a huge bearing on any deals they might seek to negotiate. The UK haven't even decided what sort of relationship they would like, never mind what sort of relationship they will have.


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:26 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
Here is a question: How is it that Trump can strike up bi-laterals across the world and the UK can't do same in preparation of a change world or did I miss something?

What's the impediment?

What bilateral are you referring to?


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 Post subject: Re: Britain leaving the European Union.
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:31 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
Here is a question: How is it that Trump can strike up bi-laterals across the world and the UK can't do same in preparation of a change world or did I miss something?

What's the impediment?


Ummm... Trump hasn't made any bi-lateral agreements.

He claims he is pulling out of the WTO, NAFTA etc. Those agreements are ratified by the US congress and the president doesn't have the authority to modify or revoke them. New external agreements need to be ratified by congress. It looks like the aids around Trump as simply going, "Yes, Mr. President, that's a good boy, good boy... you have just shown that evil WTO who is boss, who's a good boy? " rather than provoking him by telling him he is talking crap that has no relevance to reality.


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