Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 35 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:23 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1906
It looks like the Myanmar Generalissimo's are getting cold feet about the Kyaukpyu port. They fear they're going to fall into the same problems Sri lanka did where it had to give the port built using Chinese loans to the Chinese when they couldn't pay them back.

The Guardian wrote:
Myanmar scales back Chinese-backed port project over debt fears

Myanmar has scaled back plans for a Chinese-backed port on its western coast, sharply reducing the cost of the project after concerns it could leave the south-east Asian nation heavily indebted, a top government official and an adviser told Reuters.

The Kyaukpyu port is a key part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative, aimed at expanding trade links across the world. While Beijing says Belt and Road is mutually beneficial for it and its partners, questions have been raised about countries taking on excessive debt to build projects.

The initial $7.3bn (£5.6bn) price tag on the Kyaukpyu deepwater port, on the western tip of Myanmar’s conflict-torn Rakhine state, set off alarm bells due to reports of troubled Chinese-backed projects in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the official and the adviser said........

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:29 am 
Offline
IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31853
Location: Tullamore
The chinese don't understand the soft in 'soft power'. You keep good relations, not reposses bits of another country; in times of stress you use the "yeah, but you still owe me 10 billion for the port; not looking for it, just saying like if you need to vote, or I need to park an aircraft carrier".

_________________
"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:40 am 
Offline
IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31853
Location: Tullamore
Hmmm, and there appears to be some pushback on the move from soft power:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... over-china
Whether it amounts to anything is another question!

_________________
"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:47 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6276
Location: On the Road
Quote:
Before the West started paying real attention to the Rohingya crisis, Myanmar’s democratic transition was something of a cause celebre. But in reality, the country is still under military sway, and the democratic West is still less influential in Myanmar than China. Beijing’s interests are still a decisive economic influence in the country, which is clearly a potentially crucial partner in China’s gargantuan Belt and Road initiative.

To be sure, China is just one of Myanmar’s heavyweight international protectors, which also include Russia and India. These three countries all share certain urgent concerns, among them the threat of militant radical Islamism. Connections have been drawn between Rohingya militants and Pakistani extremist groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, this just as Beijing is increasing pressure on Pakistan to curb its support for fundamentalist groups that could threaten Chinese interests in Asia.

As it surveys this troubling map – which also includes an insurgency among the Uighur Muslims of China’s own Xinjiang province – Beijing views Myanmar’s crackdown not as a domestic problem for a junior partner, but as another front in a wider struggle for stability.

And just as Myanmar fits into that particular Chinese strategy, it also has a part to play in various others.


https://scroll.in/article/864709/why-ch ... mar-regime

The west had been under the impression that if it could get Aun Sang Su Ki installed in power it would then have a puppet with which to oppose China by proxy. Hence the Nobel Prize and fawning by Hillary Clinton, Bono et al. When it became apparent that she was not going to play ball and allow western interests unfettered access to to Burmese mineral deposits and the rest of it they then turned their attention to fermenting unrest via Rohingyan Islamists in Rakhine state before Bob Geldof and the like began labeling her as a war criminal etc.

As an aside the whole region around Bangkadesh to include Rakhine State and parts of India, notably Assam, are ethnic conflicts and even potential genocides waiting to happen (obviously has already happened to an extent in Myanmar) as ever increasing numbers of illegal migrants from Bangladesh (i.e. Muslims) encroach on surrounding areas. Currently the Indian Givernemnt is threatening to deport significant numbers of the estimated 4 million Muslims in Assam if they cannot prove that they are citizens despite most (probably) of them having been born in India. An opposition Indian politician in parliament this week even predicted civil war if the plan goes ahead....probably hyperbole but given what happened in Myanmar last year the situation is tense.

_________________
"It is difficult to be certain about anything except what you have seen with your own eyes, and consciously or unconsciously everyone writes as a partisan.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:56 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6276
Location: On the Road
There was a TV report earlier this evening that referenced this article....interesting, innovative stuff on the part of the Chinese....as the woman said, while the Yanks have spent the past decade and a half focussed on blowing up a guy in a cave, the Chinese have been at the likes of this...

Quote:
Transsion, Tecno’s manufacturer, has two other brands on the market – Itel, and Infinix catering to different price points and consumer segments. What sets the company apart is that they are solely focused on the African continent and do not even sell in their domestic market of China. This was a strategic decision, as a recent article says, and their rapid success very likely due to the vacuum left by Nokia. They’ve customized completely for the African market, going as far as to develop cameras suited for local conditions, something no other phone manufacturer has done anywhere on the planet.

“For African consumers, a main medium of entertainment is photos – they love to take selfies and share them with friends. The traditional camera was not optimised for the African consumer because often, for those with darker skin, the photos don’t come out well especially in low light. We did research using over 10,000 photos of African consumers to create a special algorithm to optimise the camera to attract 30% more light on the darker face. We call this ‘Africa Focus’. It’s been heavily popular. It improved our cameras and won the hearts of Africans who like to take selfies.


http://nitibhan.com/tag/transsion/

_________________
"It is difficult to be certain about anything except what you have seen with your own eyes, and consciously or unconsciously everyone writes as a partisan.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:52 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12060
Nearby Laos is into hock to the Chinese for a pile of infrastructure, notably their 'under construction' bit of a 'Kunming-Singapore' railroad that has very little support in Malaysia and Thailand further south which will cost them 33% of their annual GDP by the time it opens in 2021. The loan needs annual servicing thereafter.

The terrain in Laos is brutal, it is basically one mountain range from north west to south east.

Between the rail project (China to the capital) and some motorway and dam projects they are in hock for over 50% of GDP albeit rapidly growing GDP nowadays. If they could stop at that lot for a few years then inflation will get them out of potential trouble in a few years.

If they keep taking credit they will be a Chinese vassal state by 2025. :(

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:39 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1906
A quick breakdown of how China's geaography drives it's defence policy.

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:45 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12060
Chinas Giant Gulag!

Since 2016 China has built a giant system of Gulags or 'special vocational schools' in its Muslim majority North West province of Xinjiang. These large camps, over 20 of them, are capable of housing at least 1 MILLION PRISONERS and a catalogue of these gulags, together with Google Earth Images, is available HERE.

So far China is detaining in the order of 500,000-700,000 prisoners, almost all are ethnic Uighurs and Kazakhs from the NW area. The total population of Kazakhs and Uighurs is around 13-14m meaning that 5% of the entire ethnic population is now in the Gulag. Whole areas are depopulated now.

The FT carried an excellent piece on this enormous security crackdown this week.

https://www.ft.com/content/ac0ffb2e-8b3 ... 81731a0340

Quote:
According to reports and accounts from human rights groups cited by the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China, at least 500,000 Uighurs are in detention or have been recently held. In April, its two chairs, lawmakers Marco Rubio and Chris Smith, called Xinjiang “the largest mass incarceration of a minority population in the world today”. In southern Xinjiang, where policing is the most intense, up to 80 per cent of adults in urban neighbourhoods have been rounded up according to remaining residents.

“So many people, mostly the men, were imprisoned for so-called ‘913’ crimes: having forbidden digital content on their phones,” says Alfiya, a Kashgar housewife.

Chinese media have in part masked the sudden disappearance of such a large part of Xinjiang’s population by absorbing it into more innocuous initiatives. For instance, according to the People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist party, a national poverty alleviation programme relocated 461,000 rural Xinjiang residents in the first three months of 2018. Calls to Xinjiang’s provincial government and public security arm went unanswered.


Nobody is safe from the Gulag.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/worl ... dawut.html

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:57 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1906
That's horrendous about the Uighirs and Kazakhs. How is this the first we're hearing of this? It looks like it's too late to put the Chinese Genie back in the bottle.

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:16 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1906
The Chinese look to be ratcheting up the pressure on Taiwan. TBH I'm not sure what the status of Taiwan is. I have a vague rememberance (probably from this parish) that the Chang Kai Cheks Chinese Nationalist fled there after they lost to the Communists. I don't know if Taiwan is traditionally part of China, I'll have to look it up.

The Guardian wrote:
Taiwan further isolated as El Salvador switches allegiance to China
El Salvador and Taiwan have severed official ties, with the central American country switching its diplomatic allegiance to China.

Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said on Monday that Taipei had terminated bilateral ties with El Salvador and was recalling all staff from the country.

According to Wu, El Salvador had been asking Taiwan to provide an “astronomical sum” in financial aid for a port project that Wu said would leave both countries in debt. Meanwhile, Taiwan had received reports that El Salvador was considering establishing ties with Beijing in exchange for investment and aid...........

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:57 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3701
Location: Bogtrotterland!
From what I remember from my history lessons, it is(was) a Chinese province that is where the losing nationalists fled to after the civil war, the communists never bothered to pursue them at the time, but never recognised it as a separate country.

The Chinese don't appear to have any ambitions to bomb their way to victory, they'll play the long game where eventually Taiwan will be reunited into the State.
It looks like they recently have increased the pressure to grind down the Taiwanese so that eventually they'll rejoin (under duress).

As for that Genie, I think we can blame western business leaders who used cheap Chinese labour to break the western unions.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:46 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1906
dolanbaker wrote:
As for that Genie, I think we can blame western business leaders who used cheap Chinese labour to break the western unions.


Yep, this is exactly it. Is it ironic that a Communist Country was used to break western unions?

_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:00 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Oct 22, 2007
Posts: 1906
The clients along the Silk Road are waking up to the debt implication of some of the projects. The Myanmar Junta and now the Malaysian's are reviewing their part in the projects.

Business Insider wrote:
Malaysia axes $22 billion of Belt and Road projects, blow to China

[*] Mahathir Mohamad has cancelled two major Chinese-funded projects to avoid his country going into further debt.
[*] The projects were a $20 billion rail link and two gas pipelines worth $2.3 billion.
[*] All three were part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive project which aims to link more than 70 countries through trade.
[*] Several of China's partners are having trouble repaying their loans.

Malaysia's prime minister has cancelled two multibillion-dollar Chinese-funded projects to avoid his country going into debt — delivering a blow to China's plan to reshape global trade.

Mahathir Mohamad told reporters on Tuesday that he would axe two major infrastructure projects because "we don't need" them, and that the debt accumulated from them could bankrupt Malaysia.


_________________
No tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors.
--Arnold Toynbee

If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.
--Epictetus


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:11 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12060
Tanzania appears to have had a lucky escape from the clutches of the Chinese. The Previous government signed up for a huge $10bn Port named Bagamayo . Seemingly the current Tanzanian government will guarantee nothing for this project and it will probably not go ahead unless the Tanzanians are on the hook for a backstop.

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Reviving the Silk Road
PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:21 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: May 18, 2007
Posts: 6276
Location: On the Road
2Pack wrote:
Nearby Laos is into hock to the Chinese for a pile of infrastructure, notably their 'under construction' bit of a 'Kunming-Singapore' railroad that has very little support in Malaysia and Thailand further south which will cost them 33% of their annual GDP by the time it opens in 2021. The loan needs annual servicing thereafter.

The terrain in Laos is brutal, it is basically one mountain range from north west to south east.

Between the rail project (China to the capital) and some motorway and dam projects they are in hock for over 50% of GDP albeit rapidly growing GDP nowadays. If they could stop at that lot for a few years then inflation will get them out of potential trouble in a few years.

If they keep taking credit they will be a Chinese vassal state by 2025. :(


There are towns in northern Lao that are full of empty Chinese owned hotels and restaurants that have been set up for money laundering purposes.

The Chinese have also assumed de facto control of Lao's rubber industry. From a quick Google search....

Quote:
Despite centuries of state-directed eradication efforts, opium cultivation persists in northern Laos and Myanmar. The most recent of these efforts is China’s Opium Replacement Program (ORP). Like other illicit crop substitution programmes, the ORP seeks to provide opium cultivators with licit livelihood alternatives. Unlike other programmes, it does so by supporting Chinese agribusiness investors in the region – predominantly rubber companies – instead of targeting opium producers directly. Rubber is not, however, economically or ecologically speaking, an optimal replacement for opium. Rubber and opium have contrasting production cycles and market characteristics, and are grown at different altitudes by different types of producers (large corporations and smallholders, respectively). Due to this apparent mismatch, critics have dismissed the ORP’s opium eradication aims, viewing it as a pretext for land grabs. I argue instead that rubber makes sense as an opium replacement crop based on Chinese and Lao state views that opium is a symptom of weak state control and underdevelopment in the borderlands and rubber a tried and true modernising crop. I thus offer that the ORP attempts replacement by displacement – not necessarily by physically replacing opium fields with rubber plantations, but rather by drawing land and labour into rubber, away from opium.


https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10. ... ode=fjps20

They are also probably going to be afforded the use of a number of Vietnamese islands in the South China Sea for a price...although many Viets are not happy with this prospect....

Quote:
The recent protests centered on the Special Zone Act, a law that would create “special economic zones” (SEZs) with the goal of sparking investment and economic reform. However, the prospect of dodgy deals that allegedly would have handed land over to Chinese investors provoked a flood of angry demonstrations less than two weeks ago, with protesters holding placards that read “No Special Zone — No leasing land to China — Even for one day!” and “Down with those who sell our country.” The chants started in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi but soon spread to towns in six provinces, including Danang, Nha Trang, Binh Thuan, and Tai Ninh.


https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/vietnam ... a-dilemma/

Ultimately all of these actions are being undertaken with the willing consent of the locals, some of whom will benefit from same (many others will not of course).

Its basically the same approach that the Britsh East India Company employed in the 18th and 19th centuries and is (depending on your perspective) infinitely more desirable than a Bush/Clinton/Obama approach which requires initial destruction followed by contracts for regeneration...at least for now....

_________________
"It is difficult to be certain about anything except what you have seen with your own eyes, and consciously or unconsciously everyone writes as a partisan.”
― George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 35 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: propertyspire and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Click for Latest Posts LATEST POSTS Click for Forum List FORUMS   

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster

  

Pyramid Built, Is Better Built!