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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:24 am 
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World trade system in danger of being torn apart, warns IMF

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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:33 am 
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The failure of the G7 meeting in Charlevoix, Quebec, marks a watershed for the 21st-century democracies. It is the moment when Donald Trump’s disruption of the international order moved from annoying threat to damaging reality. Mr Trump went to Quebec only under protest. He made no effort to compromise on his tariff war. He arrived late for meetings, chided the other leaders and left early. He snubbed the final communique. He tweeted insults to his Canadian hosts from his plane as he headed off. By the time his North Korean summit ends later this week, Mr Trump may be on chummier terms with another authoritarian dictator than with America’s democratic allies.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... t#comments

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https://www.sbs.com.au/news/angela-merk ... depressing


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:48 pm 
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I thought that photo was photoshopped first time I saw it. Incredible image.


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:34 pm 
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Certainly diverted any attention away from Bilderberg going on in Turin over the weekend. Paschal the Rascal and the bould Mick O'Leary donning the green jersey this time. Alongside some other punter:
Brennan, Eamonn (IRL), Director General, Eurocontrol


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:01 am 
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What did they think was going to happen as they pressed a claim for even larger surpluses via a statement of free trade? These same nations exist under the protection of US hegemony worldwide. Trump is obnoxious but he has also been very clear about what he expects in return for that protection: trade favours. That’s why Australia got off the hook. We run a US deficit.

Europe and Japan face existential strategic risks in Russia and China. Both are run by dictators intent on pressing their interests further into the democratic realm. Tearing it down if they can. This is a systemic risk to the underpinnings of liberty that makes free trade possible at all. Yet the G7 chose instead to provoke Trump. If anyone is surprised by the response then I can provide them the contact of an excellent psychiatrist.

There are many ways that the G7 could have come to the meeting with offerings to assuage the US anger represented in Donald Trump (basically its marginalised working classes) without violating the rules based order of geopolitics. Instead they chose to prod the beast in a vain attempt to appear to protect those rules. Virtue signalling in other words.

Forgotten is that Donald Trump is the symptom not the disease. The real malady is a US economy now so divided by class that it is throwing up Hail Mary politicians. Would the G7 have gotten a better hearing from Bernie Sanders? Nope. He too wants to repair the lot of American workers and would renegotiate trade to make it happen.

It’s all well and good for Davos Man to pat himself on the back for defending free trade but if in doing so he is undermining the very foundations of global liberalism then good luck with that.


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:39 am 
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Pah. The American economy and American businesses are built on the quick buck. As soon as they can outsource it, they're off. I look at the company I work for, American born and bred, created the industry, was once the world leader. Now spends all its time cutting expensive (experienced) American workers to outsource to Poland and India. Mostly to India at this stage.

Unfettered capitalism is America's problem. Making everyone else poor too isn't going to solve that.

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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:47 am 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Pah. The American economy and American businesses are built on the quick buck. As soon as they can outsource it, they're off. I look at the company I work for, American born and bred, created the industry, was once the world leader. Now spends all its time cutting expensive (experienced) American workers to outsource to Poland and India. Mostly to India at this stage.

Unfettered capitalism is America's problem. Making everyone else poor too isn't going to solve that.

This is capitalism working properly, improving living conditions for hundreds of millions of people around the world. China used to have 97% of it's population engaged in agriculture.

Using trade barriers in an attempt to turn back the clock to some kind of post-war golden age of US manufacturing isn't going to work, it's just going to make Americans poorer because the products they consume are going to get more expensive.

Might keep Tesla around for a while longer though.

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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:08 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
Pah. The American economy and American businesses are built on the quick buck. As soon as they can outsource it, they're off. I look at the company I work for, American born and bred, created the industry, was once the world leader. Now spends all its time cutting expensive (experienced) American workers to outsource to Poland and India. Mostly to India at this stage.

Unfettered capitalism is America's problem. Making everyone else poor too isn't going to solve that.

This is capitalism working properly, improving living conditions for hundreds of millions of people around the world. China used to have 97% of it's population engaged in agriculture.

Using trade barriers in an attempt to turn back the clock to some kind of post-war golden age of US manufacturing isn't going to work, it's just going to make Americans poorer because the products they consume are going to get more expensive.

Might keep Tesla around for a while longer though.


The middle class is getting poorer and the factory jobs/blue collar workers have disappeared so what is the incentive to maintain the status quo for these people? The fear that they might not be able to afford the latest smartphone ? What good is that if your only viable jobs are uber or deliveroo


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:38 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
The middle class is getting poorer...

By what metric? In PPP terms?

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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:07 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
Pah. The American economy and American businesses are built on the quick buck. As soon as they can outsource it, they're off. I look at the company I work for, American born and bred, created the industry, was once the world leader. Now spends all its time cutting expensive (experienced) American workers to outsource to Poland and India. Mostly to India at this stage.

Unfettered capitalism is America's problem. Making everyone else poor too isn't going to solve that.

This is capitalism working properly, improving living conditions for hundreds of millions of people around the world. China used to have 97% of it's population engaged in agriculture.

Using trade barriers in an attempt to turn back the clock to some kind of post-war golden age of US manufacturing isn't going to work, it's just going to make Americans poorer because the products they consume are going to get more expensive.

Might keep Tesla around for a while longer though.


The middle class is getting poorer and the factory jobs/blue collar workers have disappeared so what is the incentive to maintain the status quo for these people? The fear that they might not be able to afford the latest smartphone ? What good is that if your only viable jobs are uber or deliveroo


The aggregate benefit of hundreds of millions of Chinese becoming richer appears to be greater than the aggregate disbenefit of a few million, or even a few tens of millions of Americans becoming poorer, so in straightforward utilitarian terms, Eschatologist is correct. Still, it's unlikely many people take much personal satisfaction from being one of the eggs cracked into making the omelette.

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People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.


Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:06 pm 
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:lol:


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:11 pm 
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That wasn't a joke, by the way, just an allusion.
I thought I'd better say, in case anyone thinks I'm utterly heartless, rather than just mostly heartless. :wink:

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People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.


Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:18 pm 
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Madness of Crowds wrote:
The aggregate benefit of hundreds of millions of Chinese becoming richer appears to be greater than the aggregate disbenefit of a few million, or even a few tens of millions of Americans becoming poorer, so in straightforward utilitarian terms, Eschatologist is correct. Still, it's unlikely many people take much personal satisfaction from being one of the eggs cracked into making the omelette.

I'm not trying to offset the happiness of the average Chinese against the misery of the average American.

I simply don't think America has a wealth problem. It has a wealth distribution problem.

Look at GDP per capita adjusted for PPP. They're 12th.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

USA: $57,638.2
China: $15,529.1

Look at who is above USA. If you remove all the oil and city states you're left with.....Ireland. Which is pretty much a city state.

Lots of prosperous, happy countries in the 40k-50k region.

What level of GDP per capita would the US require to rob Trump of his core? There is no answer, because more GDP per capita isn't the answer to the USA's problems.

So, maybe trade barriers are the solution, as long as the US is happier being poorer in the aggregate in order to fill the order books of some steel plants.

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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:56 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
Pah. The American economy and American businesses are built on the quick buck. As soon as they can outsource it, they're off. I look at the company I work for, American born and bred, created the industry, was once the world leader. Now spends all its time cutting expensive (experienced) American workers to outsource to Poland and India. Mostly to India at this stage.

Unfettered capitalism is America's problem. Making everyone else poor too isn't going to solve that.

This is capitalism working properly, improving living conditions for hundreds of millions of people around the world. China used to have 97% of it's population engaged in agriculture.

Using trade barriers in an attempt to turn back the clock to some kind of post-war golden age of US manufacturing isn't going to work, it's just going to make Americans poorer because the products they consume are going to get more expensive.

Might keep Tesla around for a while longer though.


The middle class is getting poorer and the factory jobs/blue collar workers have disappeared so what is the incentive to maintain the status quo for these people? The fear that they might not be able to afford the latest smartphone ? What good is that if your only viable jobs are uber or deliveroo


Are the trade deals with Canada responsible for this? Have any trade deals or tariffs been pointed out as what is causing the problem? The reaction to Trudeau saying that Canada would retaliate to US tariffs with tariffs of their own was pretty ridiculous.


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 Post subject: Re: The International Trade (War) Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:03 am 
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More statements of the obvious in language that even a Trump supporter could understand. Probably.

Tariffs Won’t Make America Great Again
https://www.pragcap.com/tariffs-wont-ma ... ica-great/

Quote:
The bottom line is it costs more to build stuff in the USA because we are better off than many other regions of the world. And by outsourcing the production of many goods and services we make some workers worse off while making those products cheaper for everyone in the USA. This is a good trade for a country where prices are inherently higher. Raising prices on these goods via tariffs doesn’t fix the problem it tries to solve and won’t lead to a trade surplus or fairer trade. In fact, it just results in higher costs for US consumers which makes most of us worse off.

NB – One result of increasing globalization is that more of national income has flowed to corporations which has led to higher inequality. But again, inequality is a problem that tariffs won’t fix. Unfortunately, much of the populism we are seeing today seems to be aimed at globalization when it should be aimed at inequality.

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