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 Post subject: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish property?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:34 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Feb 10, 2015
Posts: 109
Just as above - anyone care to make a prediction as to what this actually means? Murmurings amongst EAs I know of very little activity and they’re putting it down to uncertainty about Brexit.
Anyone care to look into the crystal ball and say what no deal will mean?


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:26 am 
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Real Estate Developer

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What's your own prediction @Glasnevinuser, and why?


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:52 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

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+10% high end of the market (€1000k+)
No impact elsewhere


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:55 am 
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Single Home Owner

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I wish I knew. I don’t have a clue. At the moment I can see how the uncertainty is stalling buyers but come next March??? Or whenever is clear there’s no deal.
I suppose it can only turn prices down???

Sorry - can’t seem to post. Saw what Luan said there. I really thought it’d drive things down


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:57 am 
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Of Systemic Importance
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Britain are our largest trading partners.

So a no-deal Brexit, worst case would be with tariffs imposed, resulting in less trade and a possible recession.

Recession = more taxes, pay cuts, etc

Drop in house prices ensues.

More likely outcome is fudge: no deal officially but agree short term until a fix is found, to not imposes tariffs. So not much effect on economy and no resulting drop in house prices


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:04 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Jan 19, 2009
Posts: 212
Short term, not much. Long term, continued upwards pressure on rent and property price.

What ever way Brexit plays out, the significance of London will be reduced for Financial services etc. The people employed in these are the high paying jobs and these are the only people that have some freedom to move. The only question is how great will the hit on London be.

This will play out by large companies first moving their paper offices to EU cities; this is already in progress. In time people will gradually move. This will happen as new projects get started in these companies. A new project X will be setup in Frankfurt/Paris/Dublin rather than London. Some people will move countries, but mainly EU citizens will be recruited.

I'd expect most of these companies and projects to be moved to Frankfurt and Paris. A small percentage of them will move to Dublin. While in overall terms the numbers of people moving to Dublin will be a small percentage of the total, for Dublin it will be significant.

Anyone that frequents this site will know that there are pitifully few properties available to buy in the greater Dublin area as it is. This has been the primary cause of property and rent inflation in recent years. With an additional source of inward migration of people ready, willing and able to live with Dublin prices will see continued upward pressure in the greater Dublin area. This upward pressure should offset any chaos caused by no deal.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:08 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Location: SthDub
Brexit is already causing a bump in the Irish property market if you believe the vested interest

https://www.joe.ie/news/uk-irish-homes-brexit-644456
Quote:
"It is another strain on the market because we have this increased demand."
A new report issued by the Real Estate Alliance shows that there has been a 10% increase in the number of UK buyers of Irish properties in the last year.
Additionally, almost 50% of estate agents across the country are reporting an overall increase in enquiries by potential UK buyers in Irish homes.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:19 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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I think there'll be disruption, I read recently that there's 7.000 Irish companies entirely dependent on the Irish sea economy, however we do have at least plenty of options for replacement within the EU.
Image

It's actually been GBP devaluations, especially in 08/09 that forced many Irish exporters to expand beyond the UK entirely so I expect little disruption for them, it will most probably reduce Irish exports to the UK into single digits.
Image

Maybe the top end of the Dublin market might see a bounce from executive staff establishing a domicile address but I can't see there been a mass exodus, unless there's widespread civil disruption in Britain, a scenario that isn't countenanced in Ireland, but from currently living in north England I think it's a real possibility.

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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:07 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:09 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also

From what I've seen of my Polish and other easter EU friends the trend seems to be those that didn't start families are drifting back. While Polish wages aren't near ours they've entered a cost of living sweet spot where staying away no longer makes sense.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:13 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Mar 30, 2016
Posts: 680
catbear wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also

From what I've seen of my Polish and other easter EU friends the trend seems to be those that didn't start families are drifting back. While Polish wages aren't near ours they've entered a cost of living sweet spot where staying away no longer makes sense.


yep have seen that too with staff here


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:24 pm 
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Back Home with Mammy

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FreeFallin wrote:
The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also


I suppose it will depend on what immigration policies a post Brexit UK imposes, they may still allow certain eastern European workers entry but with more restrictions towards those who are not contributing.
I know in theory they could still do this whilst in the EU but for some reason they seem to be reluctant to do so.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:09 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

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Posts: 993
NorthDub Paul wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also


I suppose it will depend on what immigration policies a post Brexit UK imposes, they may still allow certain eastern European workers entry but with more restrictions towards those who are not contributing.
I know in theory they could still do this whilst in the EU but for some reason they seem to be reluctant to do so.

Brexit will cause a massive surge in non-EU citizens resident in Ireland - I would predict around 103,000 - coincidently that's exactly the same as the number of UK citizens living here :D - https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... p7md/p7md/.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:18 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

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Posts: 993
On a more serious note I certainly can't agree with Luans comment on an effect on high end property prices. When you think about it the people who will be coming here will not be those at the top end of the scale - most of these are well settled in the UK and most likely have children at school/college there. If they live in London they won't want to sell up now as London prices at the high end are in a slow meltdown. If we get anything from brexit it will be mid-level minions who have no choice but to move and (more likely) Irish ex-pats looking to move back. They might puff some more air into the mid-priced bubble but they are more likely to have low equity in their UK property. We might see a situation similar to the 90s where ex-pats who moved back here kept UK properties and waited over a decade to see house prices rise to meet their mortgages. All in all I don't hear very much about any kind of massive inflow of wealthy brits. As has been said above this is primarily a paper move but it may have a long slow long term effect in decisions to locate here.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:20 am 
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metalmike wrote:
As has been said above this is primarily a paper move but it may have a long slow long term effect in decisions to locate here.

Most Brits haven't internalised what this all potentially means yet, expect those whose business is more dependent on the bigger EU economic scale, those people will have already acted by now.

From dropping into the Irish centres in the north England I reckon we won't be seeing a huge exodus of returning Irish from there as most are of retirement age with few if any meaningful roots left in Ireland. Demographically it seems the Irish sea flow to the old British industrial centres went into reverse in the 90s, most of the people under 45 in the Irish centres seem to be all second generation with lives firmly planted there.

If there is an exodus it will be because of serious social unrest in post Brexit Britain in the coming years and even then it may a slow migration over years.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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