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 Post subject: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish property?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:34 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Feb 10, 2015
Posts: 111
Just as above - anyone care to make a prediction as to what this actually means? Murmurings amongst EAs I know of very little activity and they’re putting it down to uncertainty about Brexit.
Anyone care to look into the crystal ball and say what no deal will mean?


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:26 am 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Aug 19, 2011
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What's your own prediction @Glasnevinuser, and why?


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:52 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Apr 9, 2014
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+10% high end of the market (€1000k+)
No impact elsewhere


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:55 am 
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Single Home Owner

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I wish I knew. I don’t have a clue. At the moment I can see how the uncertainty is stalling buyers but come next March??? Or whenever is clear there’s no deal.
I suppose it can only turn prices down???

Sorry - can’t seem to post. Saw what Luan said there. I really thought it’d drive things down


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:57 am 
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Of Systemic Importance
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Britain are our largest trading partners.

So a no-deal Brexit, worst case would be with tariffs imposed, resulting in less trade and a possible recession.

Recession = more taxes, pay cuts, etc

Drop in house prices ensues.

More likely outcome is fudge: no deal officially but agree short term until a fix is found, to not imposes tariffs. So not much effect on economy and no resulting drop in house prices


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:04 am 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Jan 19, 2009
Posts: 231
Short term, not much. Long term, continued upwards pressure on rent and property price.

What ever way Brexit plays out, the significance of London will be reduced for Financial services etc. The people employed in these are the high paying jobs and these are the only people that have some freedom to move. The only question is how great will the hit on London be.

This will play out by large companies first moving their paper offices to EU cities; this is already in progress. In time people will gradually move. This will happen as new projects get started in these companies. A new project X will be setup in Frankfurt/Paris/Dublin rather than London. Some people will move countries, but mainly EU citizens will be recruited.

I'd expect most of these companies and projects to be moved to Frankfurt and Paris. A small percentage of them will move to Dublin. While in overall terms the numbers of people moving to Dublin will be a small percentage of the total, for Dublin it will be significant.

Anyone that frequents this site will know that there are pitifully few properties available to buy in the greater Dublin area as it is. This has been the primary cause of property and rent inflation in recent years. With an additional source of inward migration of people ready, willing and able to live with Dublin prices will see continued upward pressure in the greater Dublin area. This upward pressure should offset any chaos caused by no deal.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:08 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Location: SthDub
Brexit is already causing a bump in the Irish property market if you believe the vested interest

https://www.joe.ie/news/uk-irish-homes-brexit-644456
Quote:
"It is another strain on the market because we have this increased demand."
A new report issued by the Real Estate Alliance shows that there has been a 10% increase in the number of UK buyers of Irish properties in the last year.
Additionally, almost 50% of estate agents across the country are reporting an overall increase in enquiries by potential UK buyers in Irish homes.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:19 am 
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Too Big to Fail
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I think there'll be disruption, I read recently that there's 7.000 Irish companies entirely dependent on the Irish sea economy, however we do have at least plenty of options for replacement within the EU.
Image

It's actually been GBP devaluations, especially in 08/09 that forced many Irish exporters to expand beyond the UK entirely so I expect little disruption for them, it will most probably reduce Irish exports to the UK into single digits.
Image

Maybe the top end of the Dublin market might see a bounce from executive staff establishing a domicile address but I can't see there been a mass exodus, unless there's widespread civil disruption in Britain, a scenario that isn't countenanced in Ireland, but from currently living in north England I think it's a real possibility.

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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:07 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Location: SthDub
The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:09 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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FreeFallin wrote:
The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we'll more numbers coming and that's going to cause an increase in demand for housing also

From what I've seen of my Polish and other easter EU friends the trend seems to be those that didn't start families are drifting back. While Polish wages aren't near ours they've entered a cost of living sweet spot where staying away no longer makes sense.

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Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


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