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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:14 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Apr 21, 2008
Posts: 1488
In the short term I think there’ll be a recession. Quick and severe. The UK being bollocked has always meant Ireland is bollocked. We should be able to reorientate fairly quickly and effectively towards Europe. Our international business marketing is on point and there’ll be a lot of UK supplied gaps to slot into, but there’ll be a major wobble as it happens.

In the medium term, we’ll be the only English speaking country in the EU (except Malta).

The UK in general and London in particular is a big center for multi-national/multi-lingual couples for whom English is their common language. I think we’ll see a bigportion of that group choosing Dublin as their long term home after Brexit. It might sound like a tiny sliver of the population but it’s a huge chunk of people and will put pressure on Dublin.

There’ll also be a huge influx of research & research funding & associated spin offs. The UK gets a disproportionately large amount of EU research money at the moment, and that’s a LOT of money. That will be looking for new homes, as will their researchers. Ireland is well set to garner a benefit there.

Longer term, I fully expect we’re going to end up with Northern Ireland in the next decade. Christ knows what that’ll mean.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:50 pm 
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Old Time Landlord

Joined: Sep 6, 2008
Posts: 398
There will be more pressure on the rental market in Dublin as the English and ex pats begin to Leave London and sell some of their Spanish and French properties, because of a strong euro and weak pound. It will be mainly middle class that will come into the stalled Irish property market, which has stabilised and is beginning a slow decline. Very little sales property is moving and there is a very large non moving backlog of properties that have not moved now for two years. Daft drop is showing a very strong increase in falling asking prices. Irish Londoners think Britain leaving is an absolute disaster for them. The bankers are instructed to return to Britain and leave the European Union. The research budget will increase very much for Ireland as we will get the money that would normally go to Britain.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:51 pm 
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Back Home with Mammy

Joined: Jul 24, 2018
Posts: 59
Its near impossible to predict house prices under normal circumstances but even a hard Brexit will be a slight negative. Maybe the confidence fairy will be trampled under foot, maybe not


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:27 pm 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: May 21, 2017
Posts: 196
propertyspire wrote:
Its near impossible to predict house prices under normal circumstances but even a hard Brexit will be a slight negative. Maybe the confidence fairy will be trampled under foot, maybe not


Just an ever so slight effect, just as scintilla, a smidgen perhaps. :P

Three-bed semis in Dublin will always cost more than a half-million (now we've got past that little speed bump with the silly bankers)

Cut off from our largest market, a border in Newry? No bother, boys!!!


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:28 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Mar 17, 2008
Posts: 993
catbear wrote:
metalmike wrote:
As has been said above this is primarily a paper move but it may have a long slow long term effect in decisions to locate here.

Most Brits haven't internalised what this all potentially means yet, expect those whose business is more dependent on the bigger EU economic scale, those people will have already acted by now.

From dropping into the Irish centres in the north England I reckon we won't be seeing a huge exodus of returning Irish from there as most are of retirement age with few if any meaningful roots left in Ireland. Demographically it seems the Irish sea flow to the old British industrial centres went into reverse in the 90s, most of the people under 45 in the Irish centres seem to be all second generation with lives firmly planted there.

If there is an exodus it will be because of serious social unrest in post Brexit Britain in the coming years and even then it may a slow migration over years.


I'd agree that it won't be the North of England. The people I'm thinking of moved over to the UK when IT went in to recession here in the early 2000's - they mainly work in the South East of England and a few in Scotland. Their kids are approaching secondary school age and the UK is looking very unattractive, and the undercurrent of racism is making a lot of them uneasy, their parents and older siblings have filled them in on how the Irish were treated in the last generation. If there is social unrest based on race I can assure you that Ireland won't be behind the curve - if anything it will be worse in this country and you can see the stirrings of that on boards, politics.ie, from taxi drivers and even (dare I say it) on here.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:23 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: May 15, 2007
Posts: 739
Location: London
metalmike wrote:

I'd agree that it won't be the North of England. The people I'm thinking of moved over to the UK when IT went in to recession here in the early 2000's - they mainly work in the South East of England and a few in Scotland. Their kids are approaching secondary school age and the UK is looking very unattractive, and the undercurrent of racism is making a lot of them uneasy, their parents and older siblings have filled them in on how the Irish were treated in the last generation. If there is social unrest based on race I can assure you that Ireland won't be behind the curve - if anything it will be worse in this country and you can see the stirrings of that on boards, politics.ie, from taxi drivers and even (dare I say it) on here.


I'm one of those people, and I can tell you with near certainty I won't be returning to Ireland. If things get sticky post Brexit, Germany, Portugal, Holland and maybe France are far more attractive options, both professionally and socially.

In the very unlikely event that I do return, it also wouldn't be to Dublin - Cork, Limerick offer more IMHO.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:01 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
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fitzy73 wrote:
I'm one of those people, and I can tell you with near certainty I won't be returning to Ireland. If things get sticky post Brexit, Germany, Portugal, Holland and maybe France are far more attractive options, both professionally and socially.

In the very unlikely event that I do return, it also wouldn't be to Dublin - Cork, Limerick offer more IMHO.

I think it's quite unusual for people to "move back" in all sorts of areas of life. Ever been tempted to go back to an old employer? It's almost never a good idea.

The world is a big place with lots of opportunity and people prefer to stay put or move forward.

The people interested in coming back will likely be those who've never really settled into their new life and for whom this represents a tipping point.

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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:19 am 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Mar 30, 2016
Posts: 679
fitzy73 wrote:
metalmike wrote:

I'd agree that it won't be the North of England. The people I'm thinking of moved over to the UK when IT went in to recession here in the early 2000's - they mainly work in the South East of England and a few in Scotland. Their kids are approaching secondary school age and the UK is looking very unattractive, and the undercurrent of racism is making a lot of them uneasy, their parents and older siblings have filled them in on how the Irish were treated in the last generation. If there is social unrest based on race I can assure you that Ireland won't be behind the curve - if anything it will be worse in this country and you can see the stirrings of that on boards, politics.ie, from taxi drivers and even (dare I say it) on here.




In the very unlikely event that I do return, it also wouldn't be to Dublin - Cork, Limerick offer more IMHO.


more what exactly? im curious not having a go.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:03 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: May 15, 2007
Posts: 739
Location: London
cyrusir wrote:
fitzy73 wrote:
metalmike wrote:

I'd agree that it won't be the North of England. The people I'm thinking of moved over to the UK when IT went in to recession here in the early 2000's - they mainly work in the South East of England and a few in Scotland. Their kids are approaching secondary school age and the UK is looking very unattractive, and the undercurrent of racism is making a lot of them uneasy, their parents and older siblings have filled them in on how the Irish were treated in the last generation. If there is social unrest based on race I can assure you that Ireland won't be behind the curve - if anything it will be worse in this country and you can see the stirrings of that on boards, politics.ie, from taxi drivers and even (dare I say it) on here.





In the very unlikely event that I do return, it also wouldn't be to Dublin - Cork, Limerick offer more IMHO.


more what exactly? im curious not having a go.


Well I'm from Limerick originally, so there is the (ever dwindling) family connection. At a rough calculation I could earn 80% of a Dublin salary in Limerick or Cork, but half the cost of rent / mortgage.

Aside from that I spent a few years in Dublin prior to going to London, and the terrible transportation / traffic would put me off.

Again Ireland would be a last resort though. The world is a big place.


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 Post subject: Re: What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish prope
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:18 pm 
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Too Big to Fail
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Joined: May 6, 2008
Posts: 4812
Location: the nearest faraway place
Eschatologist wrote:
I think it's quite unusual for people to "move back" in all sorts of areas of life. Ever been tempted to go back to an old employer? It's almost never a good idea.

The world is a big place with lots of opportunity and people prefer to stay put or move forward.

I saw this a few days ago and couldn't resist! :D

Image

We're lining up a move back next year, we won't be returning to where we lived before or the same careers, so it literally is a new start. We've been ping ponging for nearly a decade and I won't be surprised if we're off again after a few years in Ireland. What can I say, we're more traveler than settler.

Edit to add: I actually am interested in running greyhounds again like we did when I was a nipper.

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