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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:18 pm 
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BPFI Mortgage Approval stats for Dec and 2014 as a whole now available
http://www.bpfi.ie/news/mortgage-approv ... mber-2014/

Quote:
A total of 26,576 mortgages, valued at €4.7 billion, were approved during 2014, based on the three-month moving average. This represents an increase of 43.6% compared to 2013.


It will be interesting to compare these to their drawdown figures for Q4 2014 and 2014 as a whole, which are due out in about a fortnight


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:21 pm 
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Irish mortgage approvals at 36 year low

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews ... 8663.shtml

who to believe?


Last edited by dipole on Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:26 pm 
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Mortgage lending falls as demand remains weak
http://www.independent.ie/business/pers ... 52505.html
Quote:
The statistics show that the value of mortgages issued in the 12 months to December fell by almost 3pc.
The amount of money being paid off older mortgages exceeded new home-loan lending by €2.2bn, the regulator said.....

....Rachel Doyle of broker body PIBA said this called into question the need for the new Central Bank loan restrictions.
PIBA believes a further dampening on mortgage lending will intensify demand for rent, pushing up prices and making it even more difficult for people to save for deposits.
"In a normal lending environment the banks should be lending in the region of €8bn to €10bn annually for mortgages. It is actually incredible that six years on from the financial crash lending for house purchase is actually declining."
"If the new rules will, as we suspect, create a further break on mortgage lending, the Central Bank must be prepared to revise them," she said.


Charley just had to get the last bit in...like a dog with a bone


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:27 pm 
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I hereby grant mortgage approval to every pinster for €1 billion each.

There.
I have singlehandedly approved more money than the entire Irish banking sector.

For actual drawdowns, please contact my Nigerian backer, Prince Goodluck Jonathan.


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:34 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
For actual drawdowns, please contact my Nigerian backer, Prince Goodluck Jonathan.

There may be some delay - I've just had to wire him €30,000 to get him out of prison.


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 6:02 pm 
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It is pretty obvious really. If houses were affordable (in Dublin) mortgage drawdowns would be way up. Make houses more affordable and restore some health to the "market"


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:29 pm 
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Analysis of the Q4 2014 BPFI / PwC Mortgage Market Profile figures

http://www.bpfi.ie/news/new-mortgage-lending-q4-2014/

Mortgage Lending by Volume
Q1 2014: 3,318
Q2 2014: 4,616
Q3 2014: 6,117
Q4 2014: 7,381 (4,039 FTB + 2,495 Mover + 395RIL + 201*50% Re-Mortgage) +5% per Note 1

In Q1 to Q4 2014 there were 21,432 mortgages by Volume or 1,786 per month (21,432/12)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Volume:
Peak was Q4 2005 with 35,253 (+5% = 37,015) or 12,339 mortgages a month.
This shows Q4 2014 is a whopping -80% lower by Volume than peak in Q2 2005 (7,381/37,015)

b) Annual change in lending by Volume:
In Q1 to Q4 2013 there were 15,416 mortgages by Volume or 1,285 per month (15,416 /12)
This shows Q1 to Q4 2014 is 39% higher by Volume than Q1 to Q4 2013 (21,432/15,416)


Mortgage Lending by Value €m
Q1 2014: 571
Q2 2014: 823
Q3 2014: 1,142
Q4 2014: 1,356 (675 FTB + 550 Mover + 44RIL + 44*50% Re-Mortgage) +5% per Note 1

In Q1 to Q4 2014 there was 3,892 €million lent in mortgages by Value or 324 per month (3,892/12)

In comparison to
a) Peak lending by Value:
Peak was Q3 2006 with €8,521m (+5% = €8,947m) or €2,982m a month
This shows Q4 2014 is a whopping -85% lower by Value than peak in Q3 2006 (1,356m/8,947m)

b) Annual change in lending by Value:
In Q1 to Q4 2013 there were 2,610 €million lent in mortgages by Value.
This shows Q1 to Q4 2014 is 49% higher by Volume than Q1 to Q4 2013 (3,792/2,610)


Average Loan by Value €m

First-time Buyer
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 167,097 vs Peak Q1 2008 251,831. Fall since Peak -33.7%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 167,097 vs Q3 2013 157,035. Annual increase 6.4%

Mover Purchaser
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 220,240 vs Peak Q1 2008 281,944. Fall since Peak -21.9%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 220,240 vs Q4 2013 218,982. Annual increase 0.6%

Residential Investment Letting
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 110,598 vs Peak Q2 2008 327,927. Fall since Peak -66%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 110,598 vs Q3 2013 123,918. Annual decrease -10.7%

Re-mortgage
a) Change since Peak: Q4 2014 220,650 vs Peak Q1 2008 267,327. Fall since Peak -17.5%
b) Annual change: Q4 2014 xxxx vs Q4 2013 152,648. Annual increase 44.5%


Note 1: BPFI states "We estimate that the data covers well in excess of 95% of the mortgage market." So I add 5% to the Volume and Value figures.

Note 2: I've included 50% of each quarter's Re-Mortgages figure, as BPFI defines it as "a loan which is issued by one lender to refinance an existing mortgage with another lender. This may or may not include further equity release."

Note 3: I exclude Top-ups, as BPFI defines it as "a further mortgage advance to an existing borrower which is issued to finance expenditure other than house purchase."


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:42 pm 
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Am I reading this graph right. 80% of approvals are drawn down? That's much higher than I would have expected.

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 9:04 am 
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Q1 2015 Mortgage lending figures

http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2 ... -FINAL.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 11:57 am 
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I'd view the data as strong and consistent,if you incorporate the demand pull into Q4 for 2012/13/14 as various government incentives ended.

FTB:
2013 -
Q1 - 928 (affected by end of 2012 incentive (mortgage interest relief))
Q2 - 1600
Q3 - 2300
Q4 - 2700 (demand pulled forward)
2014 -
Q1 - 1700 (affected by end of 2013 incentive (I can't remember this one but there was!))
Q2 - 2400
Q3 - 3300
Q4 - 4000 (demand pulled forward again)
2015 -
Q1 - 3000 still very strong despite end of CGT incentive

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 12:02 pm 
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ixus wrote:
I'd view the data as strong and consistent,if you incorporate the demand pull into Q4 for 2012/13/14 as various government incentives ended.

FTB:
2013 -
Q1 - 928 (affected by end of 2012 incentive (mortgage interest relief))
Q2 - 1600
Q3 - 2300
Q4 - 2700 (demand pulled forward)
2014 -
Q1 - 1700 (affected by end of 2013 incentive (I can't remember this one but there was!))
Q2 - 2400
Q3 - 3300
Q4 - 4000 (demand pulled forward again)
2015 -
Q1 - 3000 still very strong despite end of CGT incentive


I think this was a loophole whereby you got a free couple of years property tax. It wasn't worth nearly as much as MIR or CGT...


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 12:06 pm 
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That's it! Probably brought 3/400 transactions forward.

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The pigeon just knocks all the pieces over.
Then shits all over the board.
Then struts around like it won.”


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 12:09 pm 
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Mortgage per transaction is also up (from Q1 2014).
174k versus 165k.

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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 12:17 pm 
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Just looking at it.

FTB has gone from circa 150-155K per transaction to 165-168K per transaction from 2013 to present over a few Q's.

Mover's from 200-217k to 220k (all rough calcs). Not huge jumps relative to the jumps in transaction prices.

That's good to hear in terms of banks provisions. They've not lost the run this time......

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The pigeon just knocks all the pieces over.
Then shits all over the board.
Then struts around like it won.”


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 Post subject: Re: Irish mortgage lending falling off a cliff....
PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 12:28 pm 
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ixus wrote:
Just looking at it.

FTB has gone from circa 150-155K per transaction to 165-168K per transaction from 2013 to present over a few Q's.

Mover's from 200-217k to 220k (all rough calcs). Not huge jumps relative to the jumps in transaction prices.

That's good to hear in terms of banks provisions. They've not lost the run this time......


FTB and Mover-Purchaser loan values are both (marginally) down on the last two quarters.
The introduction of macro-prudential measures will probably lead to that trend continuing.


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