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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:41 pm 
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Posts: 168
TheJackal wrote:
April 2018 figures are out today. I'll post by usual tables later.

Interesting to see Dublin houses prices perhaps reaching a plateau:

CSO table HPM06

2017M11 107.1
2017M12 107
2018M01 107.9
2018M02 109.4
2018M03 109.4
2018M04 109

Prices have not risen since Jan, with 2 drops in 6 months

I have noticed quite a few drops in asking prices on houses in the 350-450k price range in central and south Dublin since about April. Not huge, mostly less than 20k knocked off. I get the impression that some EAs/sellers were maybe getting a little ahead of themselves in predicting price rises as the spring selling season got underway and have had to revise. Actual selling prices may still be up on last year but perhaps signs of a lending-rules ceiling coming into play?


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:27 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – May 2018 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... exmay2018/


Image
Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 54,507 Property Purchases in 2017 as at 20/7/18.
Per BPFI there were 32,514 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2017. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
Therefore 40.3% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2017. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.
This compares to 44.8% cash sales in 2017, 47.8% cash sales in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.4% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.
In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:26 pm 
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Great Stuff TheJackal.

It is worth pointing out that performing mortgages taken out at the peak are finally just about at par on the banks books, in other words there is positive equity for peak time high LTV purchasers who have paid their mortgage since. This by the way is most of them.

If you took out a 30 year €300k Repayment Mortgage in Dublin, at peak, you would have paid off around €75k or 25% by now.
If you took out a 25 year €300k Repayment Mortgage in Dublin, at peak, you would have paid off around €105k or 35% by now.

My memory of 2007 is that there were very few 25 year mortgages around by then and 30 years or even more was the new normal, but as prices are still rising there should be no more negative equity for most performing mortgage holders by the end of 2018 and their bankers will no longer have to account for the negative equity situation on their books. The exception would be those on 35-50 year mortgage terms of whom there are relatively few.

It's only 5 or 6 years since the same purchasers were sitting on an excruciating pile of negative equity that trapped them in their homes, often a shoebox somewhere. I would think that owners of 2007 era 1 beds are not out of negative equity quite yet though and neither are buyers in tax break estates in north Connacht/Longford, but houses and larger flats yes.

It is also worth noting that price rises are being driven by what is historically a very very thin market and the number of transactions is small compared to the 1990s or 2000s.

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:19 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – June 2018 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... xjune2018/

Image

Image


Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 54,565 Property Purchases in 2017 as at 14/8/18.
Per BPFI there were 32,514 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2017. See here for details http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic ... 1&p=814001
Therefore 40.4% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2017. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.
This compares to 44.8% cash sales in 2017, 47.8% cash sales in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.4% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.
In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:07 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – August 2018 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ugust2018/

Image
Image

Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 54,610 Property Purchases in 2017 as at 09/10/18.
Per BPFI there were 32,514 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2017. See here for details http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic ... 1&p=814001
Therefore 40.5% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2017. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.
This compares to 44.8% cash sales in 2017, 47.8% cash sales in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.4% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.
In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:10 pm 
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September figures -- since April the annual rate of growth for all residential has dropped from 13.3% to 8.2%, but for Dublin houses this drop is from 12.2% 5.5%.

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:17 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – September 2018 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ember2018/

Image
Image

Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 54,672 Property Purchases in 2017 as at 12/11/18.
Per BPFI there were 32,514 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2017. See here for details http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic ... 1&p=814001
Therefore 40.5% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2017. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.
This compares to 44.8% cash sales in 2017, 47.8% cash sales in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.4% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.
In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:31 pm 
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Posts: 10826
Latest:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... tober2018/

Slight monthly dip in Dublin apartment prices, but Dublin house price annual growth increased slightly.

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 Post subject: Re: CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:15 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – October 2018 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... tober2018/

Image
Image

Notes:
1. Per the official PPR there were 39,231 Property Purchases in Q1-3 2018 as at 11/12/18.
Per BPFI there were 25,574 Mortgage Drawdowns in Q1-3 2018. See here for details http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic ... 1&p=814001
Therefore 65.2% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2018. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.
This compares to 40.5% cash sales in 2017, 44.8% cash sales in 2016, 47.8% cash sales in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.4% in 2013.

2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.
In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... ijune2017/

3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


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