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 Post subject: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:48 am 
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More than 12,582 new homes were built in the first 3 quarters of 2018, according to the Central Statistics Office,

CSO reckon the housing stock increased by 10,000 in 2017 and only 6000 in 2016.

The Housing stock has only increased by 21,000 in the 2011-2017 period.

Eoghan aimed for 20,000 in 2018, was he successful? Does it matter given that demand is far higher?

https://www.housing.gov.ie/sites/defaul ... -date.xlsx

So, How many houses were built in 2018?


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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:55 pm 
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There is also a thread on it here

https://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopi ... =4&t=67469


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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:05 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:


Just updated that thread


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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:55 pm 
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metalmike wrote:
TheJackal wrote:


Just updated that thread



Grand.

18,855 according to Goodbody anyway, Eoghan Murphy failed again. :(


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0 ... g-tracker/


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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:10 pm 
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Bubblecovery wrote:
18,855 according to Goodbody anyway, Eoghan Murphy failed again. :(
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0 ... g-tracker/


A 6% miss has to be the smallest failure of this government.

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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:04 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
Bubblecovery wrote:
18,855 according to Goodbody anyway, Eoghan Murphy failed again. :(
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0 ... g-tracker/


A 6% miss has to be the smallest failure of this government.



The more interesting question is: How many dwellings become obselete?

The net growth in dwelling stock is the variable of interest.

There are no statistics on demolition, dereliction or conversion of several units into one.

It can only be inputed ever five years from census to census.


There is soon to be a 'hump' in the housing stock. The 70s saw a lot of construction, and most of these are coming up to the half-century mark. Many of them are small and draughty, and were never designed to last forever.


Public policy in Ireland makes widespread demolition near impossible. For example Crumlin and Drimnagh have several thousand 80-90 sqm houses between 60 and 80 years old. They are in most cases ugly and not suited to modern preferences. Yet they live on!


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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:21 am 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
The more interesting question is: How many dwellings become obselete?
The net growth in dwelling stock is the variable of interest.


2% of the total stock, 40,000 a year.

But this is divided into (as an EG to indicate complexity)

A total hovel in trendy Smithfield that needs a €100k renovation...on the one hand and a 1950s housheen on a mountain in mid Donegal where Paddy died last year and there is nobody in the family left around and that will probably crumble into dereliction within 10 years. Trendy Smithfield will generally be done or disobsolescidificimacated within say 5 years and such was always the way.

So I would argue that 1.5% of the housing stock becomes obsolete, annually, in an area where renovation is economic or where the site value is positive in some way (30k dwellings) and 0.5% crumble from lack of any real local demand of any sort (IE 10k dwellings in pretty rural areas or decaying rural villages)

Where I live is posh rural and I have often seen 1960s and 1970s houses flattened for the site value and replaced with rather larger modern builds. You wont see that in Smithfield.

In places like Leitrim where a totally new house needs €50k worth of septic tank as standard the renovation of even much older houses is actually quite economic, anything as long as you can avoid installing a new septic tank. :D

Getting back to the 10k dwellings that do fall uselessly obsolete, the sustainable building rate in Ireland is supposed to be 30k units a year which means

30k new units in more urban areas MINUS
10k obsolete units in the rural midlands or in some small village EQUALS
20k net new units are created where there is demand

19k units in 2018 is too low to replenish the stock on a NATIONAL basis, replenishment rate is at least 30k and that is apart from any pent up demand from failure to build anything much from 2010 to 2016 inclusive.

Obsolete units generally have the lekky disconnected but not always, I had to call the fire brigade to a derelict/boarded house once where there were sparks coming from a 1950s ish ESB cable just where it came into the house. It could have set off a fire in a terrace of 5 houses. That house had been empty over 10 years and had a live connection even then.

There is a suggestion it is only 4K per annum but that comes from a suspect source. Can somebody tell Dr. John McCartney that 2Pack will be in touch. :D

https://www.savills.ie/_news/article/11 ... al-ireland

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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:49 am 
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Good point 2pack.

I think it's something like 700k dwellings are one-off. As you say there is no big constraint on flattening these and as you say the septic tank, utility connections, etc have a big value in their own right.

My relatives bought a 'holiday' house in deep Galway years ago (not picturesque) in the 90s. It's maybe a 1940s build. The locals all built themselves palaces in the boom and the damp, 60sqm huts half way up the hill fall into ruin once the occupant dies off. Children are born in Ireland at roughly twice the rate that people die, and their parents will not want them to grow up in damp, ugly one-offs from before 1950. Same can be said for the shabby rows of terraced houses that line the entrance to many a rural town - although these at least can cheaply house young immigrants.

I would not trust Dr John too much with the stats. He got his ass handed to him in the comments a while back for suggesting that Ireland's pensioners were going to take up tools in vast numbers to boost the employment rate.

Dr John's estimate of 3,000 new builds a year is laughable. At roughly 2m extant dwellings he's suggesting that the average house in Ireland will last nearly 700 years. Not a single place in the world - even Venice - builds houses so robust to the environment and fickle human preference. It's a good thing he doesn't have a comments function on his blog!


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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:10 am 
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2Pack wrote:
Getting back to the 10k dwellings that do fall uselessly obsolete, the sustainable building rate in Ireland is supposed to be 30k units a year which means

30k new units in more urban areas MINUS
10k obsolete units in the rural midlands or in some small village EQUALS
20k net new units are created where there is demand


No, 30k new units in urban areas means 30k units where there is demand, not 20k.

Minusing the 10k is fine when computing national housing stock, but that 10k is a component of overall urban demand, e.g. grandparents dying off and their grandkids moving to urban areas.

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 Post subject: Re: How many houses were built in 2018?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:29 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Getting back to the 10k dwellings that do fall uselessly obsolete, the sustainable building rate in Ireland is supposed to be 30k units a year which means

30k new units in more urban areas MINUS
10k obsolete units in the rural midlands or in some small village EQUALS
20k net new units are created where there is demand


No, 30k new units in urban areas means 30k units where there is demand, not 20k.


We are only building 19k units a year and for most of this decade we built less than 10k. We need to build 30k new units a year for a sustained period of 5 years.

These will all be built where there is demand, unlike 10 years ago when we were building tax incentive dross in Longford or in Roscommon.

Strategic housing applications are starting to show a pipeline of around that size building up.

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