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 Post subject: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 2:35 pm 
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Surely something has to give here soon. The figures are staggering.

Q1 2012 figures should be out soon. Meanwhile below are Q4 2011

http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/pr ... 202011.pdf

Outstanding:
Total residential mortgage loan accounts outstanding - at end of quarter 768,917

Arrears:
Total mortgage arrears cases outstanding - at end of quarter which are:
- In arrears 91 to 180 days 17,825
- In arrears over 180 days 53,086
Total arrears cases over 90 days outstanding 70,911

% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days 9.2%

Repossesions:
Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter 895

Residential properties taken into possession in 2011 608
- of which Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2011 196
(Q1 49, Q2 54, Q3, 43 Q4 50)
- of which Residential properties voluntarily surrendered/abandoned in 2011 412
(Q1 91, Q2 119 , Q3 119, Q4 83)

Restructured Mortgages:
Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter 74,379
- of which are not in arrears 36,797 or 49.5%


So we can see that

% of arrears cases over 90 days (70,911) which is 9.2% of ALL residential mortgages oustanding, has resulted in repossessions in 2011 of just 608 = 0.0085%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2011 was 0.0027%


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 2:41 pm 
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As more and more people who are not paying their mortgages, and at least cosmeticially still look to be doing alright, it only encourages more people to miss a month here and there especially if you are in your house for life, talk of debt forgivness will only encourage more of this.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 2:44 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
% of arrears cases over 90 days (70,911) which is 9.2% of ALL residential mortgages oustanding, has resulted in repossessions in 2011 of just 608 = 0.0085%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2011 was 0.0027%




So there are 70,911houses in arrears of 90 days or more.

Last year 6 houses were repossessed, and 4 were voluntary.

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 2:48 pm 
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Magpie wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
% of arrears cases over 90 days (70,911) which is 9.2% of ALL residential mortgages oustanding, has resulted in repossessions in 2011 of just 608 = 0.0085%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

Residential properties repossessed on foot of an Order in 2011 was 0.0027%




So there are 70,911houses in arrears of 90 days or more.

Last year 6 houses were repossessed, and 4 were voluntary.


No, last year 196 were respossessed and 412 were surrendered


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 2:56 pm 
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What I would like to see is a breakdown of arrears by mortgage value.

I suspect we would see the % of those in arrears rising as the size of the mortgage rises. What percentage of mortgages over €1m are in arrears.

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 3:13 pm 
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Discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=43381

The figures appear to indicate that those in arrears have been so for an average of two years and 33,329 are in arrears and not restructured. This means people are not engaging with the process and have not done so for two years. The Central Bank rules allow a lender to resposses if it is not a primary residence or the owner has not engaged for 12 months.

The absence of repossessions is just an interference with property prices finding a floor.

I would vote Yes for Kenny's poxy referendum if he promised to force resposessions now. Looks like I am voting No.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 4:54 pm 
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jxbr wrote:
Discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=43381

The figures appear to indicate that those in arrears have been so for an average of two years and 33,329 are in arrears and not restructured. This means people are not engaging with the process and have not done so for two years. The Central Bank rules allow a lender to resposses if it is not a primary residence or the owner has not engaged for 12 months.

The absence of repossessions is just an interference with property prices finding a floor.

I would vote Yes for Kenny's poxy referendum if he promised to force resposessions now. Looks like I am voting No.


Ah yes, knew we'd discussed it somewhere else. Per my post on the other thread

The arrears v repossessions figures for Ireland are a complete scandal.

A comparison of Arrears to Repossesions in UK v Ireland as of Q4 2011 is startling.

The UK arrears rate per 100,000 mortgages is just 2,069, whereas in Ireland at the end of Q4, 2011 it was 9,222.

The UK have 353 repossessions per 100,000 mortgages. In Ireland our repossession rate is approximately 79 per 100,000 mortgages.

So we have 4.5 times the arrears but 1/5 of the repossessions!


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 5:01 pm 
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Don't worry the banks will get round to it eventually.

Ultimately the number of repossesions will rise. The only difference between here and the UK being the amount of time it takes between the mortgage going into arrears and eventual repossesion.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 5:07 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
Surely someone has to give here soon. The figures are staggering.


FYP

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 5:58 pm 
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jxbr wrote:
Discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=43381

The Central Bank rules allow a lender to resposses if it is not a primary residence or the owner has not engaged for 12 months.


Not quite I think the banks can commence legal proceedings for repossesion of a primary residence if alternate arrangements for mortgage payment cannot be agreed or are not met. There is a likely lengthy appeals process that no doubt is being abused but surely the banks could move on more than a couple of hundred out of the pool of 70,000+++ over a years period.

http://www.centralbank.ie/regulation/pr ... 202011.pdf
http://www.centralbank.ie/regulation/pr ... stions.pdf
The Q&A reads like a guide to non-payment.

It is a disgrace, what the hell is wrong with respossesing a PPR if it is not being paid, I am sure a rental property could be found, no doubt paid for by the taxpayer like 50% of rentals already, still better than leaving serial non-payers in their PPRs. I am all for adjustment, even write-off of principal up to maybe 20% or whatever, but the banks have to pursue those who just will not or cannot pay at all.
Is it a case of mortgage holders sending in E100 every few months and showing up in arrears but the banks not being able to do anything?? I expect there are a myriad of loopholes but they should be closed and fast.

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