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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:03 am 
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Under CAB Investigation

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NegativeEquity wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Could we see another round of repossessions now.


I think the correct collective noun is a tsunami of repossessions :nin


yes its a large volume spread out over a large area so you would barely notice it until it bites you in the ass - a classic tsunami.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:55 am 
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Single Home Owner

Joined: Oct 29, 2014
Posts: 106
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/b ... 77424.html
Quote:
Ulster Bank is already in the market with an auction of 6,500 Irish mortgages, with combined debts of €1.6bn.
The sale, launched in May, is split between 2,900 buy-to-let investor loans and 3,600 primary dwelling homes - standard owner-occupier mortgages.
The owner-occupier mortgages are in deep arrears with an average of 44 months.
Almost three-quarters of the borrowers first entered arrears between seven and nine years ago. A sale is expected later this year.


Is it too late to get a mortgage and only bother make a payment every other month? It seems I could string out a bank for up to 10 years. Looks like a cheap alternative to renting.

Seriously, I think the most egregious thing about all this is that typical first time buyers wont even get the chance to buy these houses, the houses near jobs will be parceled up and sold to REITs at discounts and rented back to the very taxpayers who paid for the discounts.

In the clowncountry of ireland most of the rest of the year will be media focused on some stupid irrelevant referendums while Eoghan Murphy sleeps easy. :evil:


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:29 am 
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Reits buy blocks of apartments not individual units.

The big bad vulture funds will do a deal with the defaulting borrowers leaving them homeless but no residual debt (assuming they facilitate a sale). The only issue are the loans BTL loans which when sold will reduce the stock of rental properties.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:43 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Jan 31, 2008
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dolanbaker wrote:
Could we see another round of repossessions now.

Another round? I must have missed the first one.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:30 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Nov 8, 2006
Posts: 1274
Bogman wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Could we see another round of repossessions now.

Another round? I must have missed the first one.


How did you miss the tsunami :x


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:10 am 
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Too Big to Fail

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Bogman wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Could we see another round of repossessions now.

Another round? I must have missed the first one.

Ask anyone who had a start mortgage, I seem to recall that they were repossessing all over the place.

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:16 am 
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I was asking someone about the scale of this loan book sale and they reckon:

1. Around 120k homeowners had a default issue at peak, some are fully back on track with no arrears or almost no arrears.
2. Around 30k are on a sustainable path to paying off the mortgage after a term change...often a term extension, but they are repaying even if more slowly.
3. Split Mortgages are only paying part of the mortgage.
4. IO solutions are paying nothing off ....BUT some are not in negative equity any more.
5. Then there are 20-30k who pay nothing off.

The loans to be sold to the vultures will be all of 3 4 and 5 or c.70-80k PPR homes in total. The banks will only keep ones that are in categories 1 and 2. This would be around 10% of all mortgages but these cannot be securitised as they have defaulted at some stage.

Investor mortgages are on top of that.

Loans that were up to 3 months in arrears at some stage, but no more, are disregarded. These are the new performing. :)

Some also took payment holidays of 6-12 months to which their contracts entitled them and I never saw figures on that but they are probably quite high. Standard BoI terms post 2000 allowed a 6 month payment holiday any time, say you were travelling or something. Those who availed of this are often the hidden defaulters as the holidays were often applied retroactively especially in 2010-2012.

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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:54 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance
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Posts: 5156
Central Bank's Q3 2018 bulletin has some interested Mortgage Arrears info

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default ... ?sfvrsn=10

pg 59 onwards

Quote:
The Central Bank’s Mortgage Arrears Statistics were enhanced in June 2018 to provide an additional breakdown of the data by loan owner type. The new data by loan holder type is available from Q1 2016 and will be updated along with the mortgage arrears statistics on a quarterly basis.

The data is broken into three groups:
• Credit Institutions (banks) – regulated entities with banking licences.
• Retail Credit Firms (RCFs) – regulated entities that provide credit directly to individuals.
• Unregulated Loan Owners (ULOs) – any other entity that owns residential mortgages and is not regulated


Quote:
RCFs hold 43,266 mortgage accounts at end-Q1 2018, representing 5 per cent of total mortgages outstanding. This is an increase of 11,665 accounts (or 37 per cent) over the past two years.

The holdings of mortgages by ULOs is smaller at 2 per cent of total mortgages outstanding. The number of mortgage accounts held by ULOs has increased by 9 per cent since March 2016 - a slower pace than that seen in RCFs.


Quote:
There are significant differences in the loan quality held across different loan owner types.
For banks, 9 per cent of all mortgage accounts held were in arrears.
This figure increases to 21 per cent for RCFs and increases further to 68 per cent for ULOs.

Similarly, the proportion of accounts in long-term arrears (over 720 days past due), is significantly higher for ULOs when compared with Banks and RCFs.
For ULOs, some 52 per cent of accounts were in arrears greater than 720 days, compared to 4 per cent for banks and 8 per cent for RCFs.
While ULOs hold just 2 per cent of all mortgage accounts, the poor loan quality in the portfolios means that ULOs hold almost 1 in 4 accounts in long-term arrears.
At end-March 2018, ULOs held 24 per cent of all accounts in arrears over 720 days, up from 14 per cent two years earlier


Quote:
Since March 2016, 6,013 properties repossessed across all loan owners. The majority of properties, at 4,305, were voluntarily surrendered or abandoned. The remainder, at 1,708, were repossessed on foot of a Court Order. Some 4,798 properties were disposed of in the same period.


Quote:
A breakdown by loan holder type reveals that banks repossessed 5,574 properties, RCFs 242 and ULOs 197 over the period.


Quote:
There was a large increase in BTL properties in possession in Q4 2017, which was impacted by an initiative for assisted voluntary surrender of properties. The data on arrears and legal proceedings indicates that there has been no material difference in the number of legal proceedings issued between banks and non-banks, as a percentage of the total number of PDH accounts in arrears.

Approximately one out of every five accounts in arrears has had some form of legal proceedings initiated by their loan owner.


Quote:
A review of the arrears profile of restructured mortgages reveals a sharp contrast between loan holders. At end-Q1 2018, 80 per cent of restructured accounts held by banks were performing and not in arrears, compared to 67 per cent for RCFs and just 45 per cent for ULOs. Some 40 per cent of restructured accounts held by ULOs are in arrears over 90 days. The comparative figure for banks and RCFs, was 11 and 15 per cent respectively.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:23 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5951
Location: SthDub
2Pack wrote:
I was asking someone about the scale of this loan book sale and they reckon:

1. Around 120k homeowners had a default issue at peak, some are fully back on track with no arrears or almost no arrears.
2. Around 30k are on a sustainable path to paying off the mortgage after a term change...often a term extension, but they are repaying even if more slowly.
3. Split Mortgages are only paying part of the mortgage.
4. IO solutions are paying nothing off ....BUT some are not in negative equity any more.
5. Then there are 20-30k who pay nothing off.

The loans to be sold to the vultures will be all of 3 4 and 5 or c.70-80k PPR homes in total. The banks will only keep ones that are in categories 1 and 2. This would be around 10% of all mortgages but these cannot be securitised as they have defaulted at some stage.

Investor mortgages are on top of that.

Loans that were up to 3 months in arrears at some stage, but no more, are disregarded. These are the new performing. :)

Some also took payment holidays of 6-12 months to which their contracts entitled them and I never saw figures on that but they are probably quite high. Standard BoI terms post 2000 allowed a 6 month payment holiday any time, say you were travelling or something. Those who availed of this are often the hidden defaulters as the holidays were often applied retroactively especially in 2010-2012.


Very good info.

They're about to discuss the PTSB sell-off on Joe Duffy so expect plenty of deep and even-handed analysis there!
Boyd-Barrett also has a letter in the IT today but it's early August so hard for the Left/Media to whip a frenzy up on this one


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:46 am 
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Posts: 5156
KBC Bank Ireland to sell €1.9bn loan portfolio as profits fall

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/fin ... -1.3590647

Quote:
KBC Bank Ireland also announced details of an agreement with Goldman Sachs to sell a €1.9 billion loan portfolio.

It is comprised of a non-performing corporate loan book; non-performing Irish buy-to-let mortgage loans; as well as performing and non-performing UK buy-to-let mortgage loans.

The portfolio was sold to entities established and financed by Goldman Sachs: Beltany Property Finance, Tramore Funding and Banna Funding.

As a result of the transaction, the level of bad loans at KBC Bank Ireland will fall by approximately 40 per cent, resulting in its non-performing-loans ratio reducing by roughly 11 percent to around 25 per cent.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:17 pm 
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Ulster Bank to sell non-performing loans worth €1.4bn to Cerberus

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... ank-loans/

Quote:
Ulster Bank is to sell 5,200 non-performing mortgages to so-called vulture fund Cerberus.

The portfolio of loans, valued at €1.4bn, includes around 2,300 mortgages relating to private homes and around 2,900 mortgages covering buy-to-let properties.

However Ulster Bank said that no performing loans were included in the portfolio, while none of the home loans involved were in a restructuring arrangement with the bank.

Some of the portfolio's buy-to-let loans may be in an arrangement with the bank, however it said that none of the loans included were considered to be sustainable.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:54 pm 
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Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 23, 2011
Posts: 642
TheJackal wrote:
Ulster Bank to sell non-performing loans worth €1.4bn to Cerberus

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... ank-loans/

Quote:
Ulster Bank is to sell 5,200 non-performing mortgages to so-called vulture fund Cerberus.

The portfolio of loans, valued at €1.4bn, includes around 2,300 mortgages relating to private homes and around 2,900 mortgages covering buy-to-let properties.

However Ulster Bank said that no performing loans were included in the portfolio, while none of the home loans involved were in a restructuring arrangement with the bank.

Some of the portfolio's buy-to-let loans may be in an arrangement with the bank, however it said that none of the loans included were considered to be sustainable.


From the RTE article:

Quote:
Meanwhile there are around €615m worth of private dwelling home loans in the portfolio. These have been arrears for an average of 83 months, with average arrears of €61,000.


That's almost 7 years arrears. On average!!!

I'd be fairly certain that amidst the outcry that these people may lose their homes, not one talking head will suggest that perhaps thats to be expected if you don't pay your mortgage for 7 years!

Astonishing.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Sep 9, 2017
Posts: 280
David Hall, Constantin & Co. can go cry to the British taxpayer on this one. For the British taxpayer has taken the hit, and the long suffering UK mortgage holder or indeed renter do not get sweetheart deals anything like this, so they may well ask why some Irish fail to pay back their mortgages in the midst of a so called boom.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:19 am 
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Banks more likely to repossess homes than vulture funds

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/fin ... -1.3594003

Quote:
Banks were nearly five times more likely to repossess houses in long-term arrears than so-called vulture funds in the first quarter of 2018.

According to the latest statistics from the Central Bank, between January and April traditional lenders such as AIB and Bank of Ireland held 29,206 mortgages which had been in arrears for more than 720 days. Of that number, the bank took 432 into their possession – either through repossession, voluntary surrender or abandonment.

That means 1.48 per cent of all properties in long-term arrears to the banks were repossessed in one form or other. The figures include both personal homes and buy-to-let investment properties.

Non-bank entities, including Start Mortgages, held 13,665 mortgages with arrears of more than two years, of which they repossessed 43. That amounts to just 0.31 per cent of the loans that these non-bank entities hold.

In general, Ireland’s repossession rate continues to be extremely low compared with other European countries with high levels of arrears.


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 Post subject: Re: Residential Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossess
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:22 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Sep 9, 2017
Posts: 280
So how are Start, Cerberus, goldman sachs etc. getting paid and funding this if they can't repossess?


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