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 Post subject: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:17 pm 
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Bottom in South Dublin and Galway City has finally been reached (or as near as) for houses. Fill yeer boots there lads. :)

Could be quite some time before bottom is reached in commuter belts such Naas and Drogheda and Tuam though, perhaps two more years.

As for Athy or Longford or outer Cavan..... depends on how enthusiatic they get with the necessary demolitions. No flattee flattees = No Bottom for years to come yet.

Yes this is a crooked sort of a bottom and don't believe Ken McDonald when he tries to peddle you an apartment in Clondalkin instead of a house. Bottom for apartments is another year away in Dublin and Galway I should think.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:24 pm 
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Close but not there yet (Dublin). Reckon another 15% approx to go in Dublin, for houses also. Bottom next year. Despondency after current increases are shown to be just a bounce.


Last edited by Pill on Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:29 pm 
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Can you outline your logic ?

I still think the current 'bottom' in houses is temporary, as even the withheld apartments will, upon release, have an impact on SCD house prices.
Also, the budget deficit is still too wide to believe that there will be no major impact on after-tax salaries, along with additional taxes and charges (especially property related). Add in the banks delaying of BTL repossessions and supply will pick up shortly.

I reacon houses could still have another 15% to go.
Apartments are a different kettle of fish.
Could easily have another 25% fall if NAMA and bank stock hits the market in any volume.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:29 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Bottom in South Dublin and Galway City has finally been reached (or as near as) for houses. Fill yeer boots there lads. :)

Could be quite some time before bottom is reached in commuter belts such Naas and Drogheda and Tuam though, perhaps two more years.

As for Athy or Longford or outer Cavan..... depends on how enthusiatic they get with the necessary demolitions. No flattee flattees = No Bottom for years to come yet.

Yes this is a crooked sort of a bottom and don't believe Ken McDonald when he tries to peddle you an apartment in Clondalkin instead of a house. Bottom for apartments is another year away in Dublin and Galway I should think.



So what are the bottom prices for houses in Galway City?
There are wide/varying/ambitions prices being quoted on property sites?

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:39 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
Can you outline your logic ?

I still think the current 'bottom' in houses is temporary, as even the withheld apartments will, upon release, have an impact on SCD house prices.
Also, the budget deficit is still too wide to believe that there will be no major impact on after-tax salaries, along with additional taxes and charges (especially property related). Add in the banks delaying of BTL repossessions and supply will pick up shortly.

I reacon houses could still have another 15% to go.
Apartments are a different kettle of fish.
Could easily have another 25% fall if NAMA and bank stock hits the market in any volume.


+1 I'd like to see 2pack's reasons though.

This feels like a pause for breath rather than a bottom. There's no doubt that current prices are sucking in eager buyers, just like a collapsing share price does when some watchers think it can't fall further.

Current house buyers are the ones loaded with cash. If the market falls another 10-15% it may not matter too much to them anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:44 pm 
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We may have hit LTEV in some markets. I think the continuing recession and the squeeze on after-tax incomes will mean an overshoot, though.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:45 pm 
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I wonder if the recent, much touted increase in property prices will push up supply, and so deflate prices? Though the increase of 0.6% is low, and perhaps illusory, there is a sizable cohort that may see this as their last, best chance to offload a property. Witness the breathlessness of the mainstream media in the last few days...

Nevertheless (and for the benefit of those who may be new, or even newish to the Pin), 2Pack has been the single most prescient voice on this forum since I joined. I would place a lot of store by his opinion, even if it suits me not to, as I don't intend to buy for a year at least. But there are a lot of me out there, competing for the same, few properties in SCD. And just because I was wrong on the upside does not mean I cannot be wrong on the downside as well.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:00 pm 
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I believe the 15% annual declines have ended but I also believe that the trend is still downward albeit in a more shallow slope. I attribute this to the manipulation of the market by NAMA, lies by government and talking up of the market by shills whose vested interest is to shift on property and thats more easily done when there is a bouyant attitude of some light at the end of the tunnel amongst those who dont know any better.

I think we shall flatline for a short while until the current slight uplift/ dead cat bounce plays itself out then continue downward with a return to normal service and the introduction of property tax/site value/rates, increases in stealth taxes, widening of tax bands and then eventually the end of CPA when there will be the introduction of the bendover tax for anyone who earns more than tuppence. So a while to go yet methinks.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:03 pm 
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That's 2Pack and Dreaded Estate overboard. Wow.

I still say 20% to go for Dublin houses.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:05 pm 
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Three Quarks wrote:
I wonder if the recent, much touted increase in property prices will push up supply, and so deflate prices?



Of course it will, it's a text-book dead cat bounce. It has to happen, and it will. The latent supply out there is enormous. Prices can tick higher now for a few months... then the supply starts to pick up, the price appreciation falls, then starts to drop and supply comes even stronger putting you through the previous "bottom" and leading to capitulation (which will be the actual bottom, but nobody will care at that point).

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:25 pm 
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What effect will (inevitable) interest rate increases have? They may still be some time away but surely there's going to be whole new crisis when it happens.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:26 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Bottom in South Dublin and Galway City has finally been reached (or as near as) for houses. Fill yeer boots there lads. :)

Could be quite some time before bottom is reached in commuter belts such Naas and Drogheda and Tuam though, perhaps two more years.

As for Athy or Longford or outer Cavan..... depends on how enthusiatic they get with the necessary demolitions. No flattee flattees = No Bottom for years to come yet.

Yes this is a crooked sort of a bottom and don't believe Ken McDonald when he tries to peddle you an apartment in Clondalkin instead of a house. Bottom for apartments is another year away in Dublin and Galway I should think.

+1

Although I believe the bottom for houses in Dublin was reached Q4 2011.

Apartments still have a lot further to fall given the volume of stock knocking round the market.

Anybody care to guess what the price rise will be next month?


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:26 pm 
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I dont think it is a Dead Cat event. Supply is genuinely constraining and this is caused by high rented sector demand in SCD and Galway City. PART of the demand in Galway City is a function of outrageous fuel prices pushing people inwards from the countryside. Rents may be higher but so are petrol prices.

Furthermore social activity outside the cities has collapsed, pubs and clubs in commuterville have closed on an epic scale and far more than in the citiies where social scenes are far more vibrant.....even/especially for unemployed 20 somethings. You may see Westport County Mayo bottom this year for the exact same reasons.

Ultimately it is demand led in a constraining supply.

The first key indicator will be that houses clear off Daft much much faster in these areas as they are sold or go sale agreed instea d of lying around for years. The second indicator will be cranes over those myriad skeletons in Sandyford again. :)

I confess hadn't noticed DE calling a bottom and I must search for that. They have the IPW data so I would not disagree.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:27 pm 
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neiliusmaximus wrote:
What effect will (inevitable) interest rate increases have? They may still be some time away but surely there's going to be whole new crisis when it happens.

Interest rate rises are a whole world away for the Eurozone.

Not sure about punta nua ;)


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:28 pm 
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Three Quarks wrote:
I wonder if the recent, much touted increase in property prices will push up supply, and so deflate prices? Though the increase of 0.6% is low, and perhaps illusory, there is a sizable cohort that may see this as their last, best chance to offload a property.


Interesting point/question. The impact of headlines about 'increases' will surely bring new supply in the months ahead which, along with the annual autumn pre-budget gloom-fest and the usual seasonal factors, will see prices fall off.

Then, as others have said, we could see a new level of despair as the stabilisation fails to turn into a surge. Cue the final plunge.


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