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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:48 pm 
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How much of an impact might the CGT exemption be having or about to have? It was available from 2011 to 2014 but you had to keep the property for 7 years. As of last year's budget that period was reduced to 4 years, which means all CGT exempt properties can be sold as of the end of this year. Investors seeing a flattening Dublin market may decide now is the right time to cash in their chips.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:03 pm 
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“May” being the optimum word :)


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:17 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
How much of an impact might the CGT exemption be having or about to have? It was available from 2011 to 2014 but you had to keep the property for 7 years. As of last year's budget that period was reduced to 4 years, which means all CGT exempt properties can be sold as of the end of this year. Investors seeing a flattening Dublin market may decide now is the right time to cash in their chips.
And put their money where?


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:17 am 
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KOR101 wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
How much of an impact might the CGT exemption be having or about to have? It was available from 2011 to 2014 but you had to keep the property for 7 years. As of last year's budget that period was reduced to 4 years, which means all CGT exempt properties can be sold as of the end of this year. Investors seeing a flattening Dublin market may decide now is the right time to cash in their chips.
And put their money where?


They bought much lower than now and can pocket a nice profit with the CGT exemption.

However current rental levels in Dublin (most bottom feeders bought lots of apartments like Bernards Elm Park or the Islandbridge complex) mean that their current rent rolls, and the rate of return on capital deployed, is very tasty right now.

I would think most are pulling in a 10% annual return, or more, on that basis.

They ain't gonna dump these and go long on a 3% bond instead, although there is a currency risk as many are US$ investors. So I think that only a flood (or a threatened flood) of supply in the GDA will make them review their long positions with a view to cashing in.

And there is no such realistic supply threat in the pipeline because relative to demand we are building fuck all in the GDA right now and not much more in Cork and nothing at all in Galway. This dismal holding pattern shows no sign of breaking down.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:57 pm 
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@2Pack

Do you see prices holding steady in Dublin, or even a return of general inflation coming in?
It looks like I will need a bigger gaff in the new year, but I thought things might start to cool so no rush.
What says the oracle?


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:32 pm 
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Dublin is still creating jobs faster than it can create bedspaces for the workforce. That is what is the key driver of prices.

The last time Dublin was booming (during the bubble) we could build at a frenzied rate of 100,000 units nationally a year and a good half of those at peak were in the GDA. If you assume that the average GDA unit had 2.5 beds back then (and now) we were creating 125,000 bedrooms a year at peak. This exceeded net new jobs in that region. There was a bedroom for everyone in Dublin in effect and for everyone coming the following year.

We mopped up a lot of excess bedrooms from 2008 to 2014 as we built nothing, then the tightening started.

In 2017 we built 6000 units (15000 bedrooms in Dublin ) > Source and a total of 9000 in the GDA or only 22500 Bedrooms. (we also see 1% of the preexisting stock being lost every year)

One needs to point out that more than 22500 net new jobs were created in Dublin in 2017 and that this sucked in migrants from all over to take these jobs, and bedrooms.

However 13000 net new jobs were created in Dublin in Q2 2018 alone so accomodation is, if anything, further behind than ever in the GDA.

Sadly Ireland is now shite at building anything and the lack of response to what is clearly an emergency now makes me feel prices will not fall for some time. Maybe Brexit will put the brakes on job creation.

In the rest of the country Brexit will cool the jets for sure, bar in Cork and Galway cities (and Kilkenny) where airbnb has bollixed the long term rental market up.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:57 am 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – June 2018 figures are out

Dublin houses at

0.0% monthly change
0.6% quarterly change
2.0% change since Jan 2018
8.4% annual change

the plateau looks increasingly there...


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:32 pm 
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Quote:
Charlie Weston Personal Finance Editor

August 14 2018 11:22 AM

Property prices have continued to rise at double-digit rates in June, but the rate of rise has eased a little.
New figures from the Central Statistics Office show prices were up by 12pc in the year to June across the State.


Hmmm :D


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:27 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
CSO Residential Property Price Index – June 2018 figures are out

Dublin houses at

0.0% monthly change
0.6% quarterly change
2.0% change since Jan 2018
8.4% annual change

the plateau looks increasingly there...


None of that reflected in the coverage so far. You'd have to dig in a little to the Statbank - as you did - to get the file. Terribly hard work...


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:34 pm 
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Ixelles wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
CSO Residential Property Price Index – June 2018 figures are out

Dublin houses at

0.0% monthly change
0.6% quarterly change
2.0% change since Jan 2018
8.4% annual change

the plateau looks increasingly there...


None of that reflected in the coverage so far. You'd have to dig in a little to the Statbank - as you did - to get the file. Terribly hard work...



Yeah, can't decide if it's laziness or what


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:40 pm 
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It is very telling that all the media attention is on property prices whereas there is almost no reporting on the volume of transactions although those are the figures that matter in the long-term, particularly in terms of supply and of homelessness.

There were 5,200 new dwellings sold in H12018 which is a 10% increase on H12017 but less than one-third of what is needed by most estimates and the unmet housing demand is growing much faster. Almost 4,000 existing dwellings were sold in June which should improve the allocation of existing resources but it doesn't address the underlying gap in supply/demand.

The price figures are highly seasonal so every year we have an annual media cycle, going from "prices boom" to "prices flat". Top prices are typically achieved in May/June and stamp duty is paid on these transactions in the Autumn. Conversely, properties which fail to sell before the Summer are eventually sold off in the Autumn at below their asking prices and these transactions are usually completed in the Spring. There is a similar trend in volume of sales registered (Oct/Nov is the peak, unless there is a rush in December for some tax dodge). There is a strange pattern in Dublin now - house prices in June were absolutely flat m-on-m in Dublin as a whole but houses in Fingal dropped by almost 1%. Apartments are now the fastest growing sector in Dublin after trailing for years.

We will have to wait a few months to see the results of the Spring sales but I think we may be able to call "top" in Dublin at the end of the year, mainly thanks to the Central Bank and Brexit fears.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:36 am 
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Cliff Taylor is the best of a bad bunch of hacks as usual

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3596355


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