Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Republic of Property

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 630 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1 ... 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59 ... 63  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:06 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12121
Lefournier3 wrote:
No one seems to connect this with the politicians' resurrection of trackers :x

I don't. :) If there are trackers they will track 1-5 year Euribor rates I should think.

Anyone noticed that the selling season is largely over for 2018. It is October after all.

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:19 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12121
Wait Wait Wait!

We have real news.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2018/1 ... stabilise/

Quote:
A FUNERAL procession with a coffin made in the shape of a 3 bed semi-detached home has been paraded around the corridors of Leinster House today as the government held a day of mourning for housing prices which according to a recent Daft.ie report have stabilised, only increasing by a pathetic 1.3%.

Sobs, cries, wails and non-stop screams of agony were emitted by members of the cabinet with the Taoiseach said to be inconsolable as housing prices failed to increase by the sort of levels that make estate agents and property developers hard as a rock.

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:28 am 
Offline
Nationalised

Joined: Oct 29, 2007
Posts: 11801
Location: Multiverse
2Pack wrote:
Lefournier3 wrote:
No one seems to connect this with the politicians' resurrection of trackers :x

I don't. :) If there are trackers they will track 1-5 year Euribor rates I should think.

Anyone noticed that the selling season is largely over for 2018. It is October after all.


My reading of the market is that the banks used up all their exemptions in the first half.

Quote:
First-time buyers and trader uppers looking to borrow more than Central Bank rules allow are already running out of time to secure an exemption for a home purchase this year, with banks expected to have allocated all their allowances as early as April. This could leave many putative home owners struggling to borrow the sums needed to purchase a home at a time of rapidly rising house prices.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/mortgage-exemptions-could-dry-up-as-soon-as-april-1.3432517

EA's outside of the city centre are finding it very difficult to sell.
Owners saw the market rise in the 1st half of the year.
They are all factoring in continued increases into their asking prices.
But the market has made other plans.
Like always, it will take time for this news to sink in and price drops occur.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:55 am 
Offline
Back Home with Mammy

Joined: Oct 11, 2017
Posts: 58
2Pack wrote:
Wait Wait Wait!

We have real news.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2018/1 ... stabilise/

Quote:
A FUNERAL procession with a coffin made in the shape of a 3 bed semi-detached home has been paraded around the corridors of Leinster House today as the government held a day of mourning for housing prices which according to a recent Daft.ie report have stabilised, only increasing by a pathetic 1.3%.

Sobs, cries, wails and non-stop screams of agony were emitted by members of the cabinet with the Taoiseach said to be inconsolable as housing prices failed to increase by the sort of levels that make estate agents and property developers hard as a rock.

Very powerful symbolism there and much truth is spoken in jest.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:06 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance
User avatar

Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 5225
CSO Residential Property Price Index – Aug 2018 figures are out

Dublin houses at

0.1% monthly change
0.8% quarterly change
2.9% change since Jan 2018
5.5% annual change


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:56 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Mar 17, 2008
Posts: 1011
Just talking and listening to gossip, rumours and anecdotes around the place I'm beginning to get the feeling that the market is on the turn. The last time I felt like this the market didn't actually crash for another two years so maybe this is an early canary!

Talking to a retired EA last month he said that 2000 houses sold in Dublin in July and that 600 were new. Looking at the PPR figures for July I get around 1800 and 500 so not quite true but close enough and there were a number of multiple sales so maybe it's not that far off - he's been pretty accurate in the past. He also said that August was a disaster but that September was picking up. Looking at the PPR figures it shows 1516 (about 100 less than last year - hardly a disaster). Too early to tell for September.

He also talked about new houses - he said that new houses in large developments in places like Swords, Finglas etc priced in the 350 - 450 k range sell very well but one off houses in SCD are still difficult to shift as they are over priced. SCD new developments are selling very slowly.

Any of the house hunting generation at work are looking outside Dublin - generally on the N2/N3 where there are good bus services (on bus lanes) into the city. I only know one person looking at Dublin (a married foreign national) - he has a budget of 500k but wants SCD on a bus/Luas route - when he told me that I said 'Good Luck' but he says he is now seeing properties in his price range in the areas he wants - they're not the property he wants but he says he feels more hopeful every month that something will turn up.

There are currently 5700 Dublin properties on sale on myhome and have been since late August. My retired EA reckons the higher numbers are because people have gone back to double listing on Daft and MyHome - that may be the case, it's difficult to tell. Sales this year seem to be above or in line with last year but maybe the August dip will continue.

A couple of years ago someone told me to watch Terenure - they said that this area had the oldest population in Dublin and reckoned that roughly 5% of the housing stock would come on the market per year for the next ten years. I'm not sure if that figure is accurate but there certainly are a lot of houses on sale at the moment (73) and there is a high percentage of price drops in recent months. Might be a good place to look!

There are economic factors as well - the stock markets are softening and everybody thinks they are in line for a crash and since it is a confidence based bubble it will be self-fulfilling - it's just a matter of when. I get the feeling that those that were invested in the Dublin residential market have already pulled out - when the capital appreciation falls under 10% pa these folks are gone - the reward does not balance the risk in a market that is close to peak. Only the suckers are still at the table. Some of the big IT companies are heading for a fall as well - Uber and AirBnb are likely to find their business model whisked away from them by regulation in Western markets. Facebook and Google have massive problems on the content side that are almost insurmountable - a lot of Dublin jobs rely on content adjudication - that won't stay here for long - it will be automated or go east - partly from straightforward labour costs - but mainly from the legal risks - people working in this area are already raising PTSD claims - eastern destinations are less litigious. The cheap labour that has stoked the rental market is also slowing - the net salaries after living expenses here are much more widely known now. The only people coming here are people who do the education - work visa - citizenship route - they know they are making a five year sacrifice but want to do it to get away from the countries of their birth.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:03 am 
Online
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: May 6, 2008
Posts: 4884
Location: the nearest faraway place
metalmike wrote:

A couple of years ago someone told me to watch Terenure - they said that this area had the oldest population in Dublin and reckoned that roughly 5% of the housing stock would come on the market per year for the next ten years. I'm not sure if that figure is accurate but there certainly are a lot of houses on sale at the moment (73) and there is a high percentage of price drops in recent months. Might be a good place to look!

Good post. I reckon Crumlin is of a similar if not a higher demographic generational transition in the next five years.

_________________
Every single frozen corpse in the Death Zone on Everest was once a highly motivated person.

Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:50 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Mar 17, 2008
Posts: 1011
Since I had a day on the doss today I had a look at the PPR house sales figures for what I would describe as the inner pale (Meath, Kildare, Louth and Wicklow) for the first 8 months of this year (5152) vs last year (4982) - so not much of a difference (about +4%) - Dublin is about +8% over the same period. So even though (anecdotally) people are looking in those areas they're not actually buying. If you take the outer pale (Carlow, Wexford, Laois, Offaly and Westmeath) the difference (3067 for 2018 vs 2981 for 2017) is even more minuscule. So much for that theory.

The latest laugh I got was that an EA told a friend who was selling that the prices in the PPR couldn't be trusted because people were lying about the prices they got and the huge sales from the vulture funds were distorting the figures. When they start to say it's fake news you know they are losing the battle.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:11 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12121
I am inclined to think there is another year or so in this upcycle and that a turn will occur (Q on Q and same Month to same Month) in Q3 2019 and specifically in September 2019. This is my inclination, a very soft forecast if you will.

That will therefore mark 7 years and 3 months of expansion since I started this thread. Hopefully Grumpy will be in like a flash to lock this thread up permanently by this time next year. Someone else will have to sniff around for the next bottom. :) :)

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:12 am 
Online
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10939
metalmike wrote:
The latest laugh I got was that an EA told a friend who was selling that the prices in the PPR couldn't be trusted because people were lying about the prices they got and the huge sales from the vulture funds were distorting the figures. When they start to say it's fake news you know they are losing the battle.

EAs are such shitbags. "People" don't update the PPR. The data comes from stamp duty returns in the Revenue e-Stamping system. Its use has been mandatory since July 2011, and it is filled in by the solicitor doing the conveyancing.

P.S. Does the thread title now need to be changed to "2Pack calls the top"? :)

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 



Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 630 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1 ... 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59 ... 63  Next

    Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Republic of Property

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster



Pyramid Built, Is Better Built! - Latest Property Discussions www.thepropertypin.com