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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:54 pm 
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Posts: 700
Skippy 3 wrote:
Reports from the trenches.

A friend of mine is a FTB in the market for a two-bed in the Grand Canal Dock area. She’s a very high earner, no kids, and is looking for something in the €400k-€450k bracket. She’s probably looking at an LTV of less than 50%.

She’s never actively looked at property til a few months ago and says the market is like a glacier. Open viewings where maybe one other person shows up, stuff sitting on the market for months at a time, EAs very happy to take calls. Looking at the PPR, she reckons a lot of unrealistic asking prices and sale prices probably down 5% from where they were at the very start of 2018. Some of this is seasonal, but she reckons investors are cashing out and none are coming in. Seven years have passed since the CGT exemption introduced in 2011, and gross yields are much more interesting elsewhere. The forthcoming Airbnb ban might also be having a dampening effect.

This is still all very anecdotal, but if the national market is going to plateau, or even dip, you would see it first at the very high end in Dublin.



thats not the very high end though? we sold an apartment in blackrock 2years ago for well in excess of that.


Last edited by cyrusir on Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:05 pm 
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I think price per square metre in GCD can reasonably be described as 'high end'.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:57 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
I think price per square metre in GCD can reasonably be described as 'high end'.


fair enough however i dont think you can call anything sub 500k as high end notwithstanding the per m prices, in absolute terms it isnt.

apartments on shelbourne road are high end and they are selling like hot cakes apparently


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:52 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – Oct 2018 figures are out

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... tober2018/

Dublin houses at

0.9% monthly change
2.8% quarterly change
5.7% change since Jan 2018
6.7% annual change


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:11 pm 
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Back Home with Mammy

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Posts: 58
I've just picked up on this. I don't lurk on the forums much anymore.

2pack - re. Galway City and your prediction of June 2012, you hit the nail on the head (not just for houses, imo). We purchased purely for investment in Apr 2012. We were advised that the bottom was yet to hit, but that was the hit, as nothing I could see was bought cheaper than we did (given area, sq. ft).

We liquidated our last investment in Apr 2018 and were glad to get out. Not that we ever had bad tenants (NEVER had an issue with tenants), but we felt that given what we had, the market had peaked.

As I asked in the other thread, 2pack.... when will we start to see reasonable value in Galway City again?! We're waiting to find ourselves a home now.

-EDIT- Looking at the PPR, it was actually 2011 we bought, at a well-known auction held in Dublin. My sentiment still stands.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:51 pm 
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https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0 ... ty-prices/

Quote:
Residential property prices nationally fell on a monthly basis by 0.5% in November, new Central Statistics Office figures reveal, while property prices increased by 7.1% nationally in the year to November.

Today's CSO figures show that residential property prices in Dublin rose by 5% in the year to November, with house prices rising by 4.6% and apartments by 6.5%.

The highest house price growth in Dublin was in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown at 6.8%, while the lowest growth was in Fingal at 3.9%.

Meanwhile, property prices outside of Dublin increased by 9.3% in the year to November - the first time the rate of growth has fallen below 10% since late 2016.

House prices outside of Dublin rose by 8.8% and apartments by 14.5% in November.

The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in property prices was the Mid-West with increases of 20.7%, while the smallest rise was recorded in the Border region at 6.1%.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:43 am 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – Nov 2018 figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ember2018/

Dublin houses at

-1.1% monthly change
0.3% quarterly change
3.8% change since Jan 2018
4.6% annual change


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:53 am 
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TheJackal wrote:
CSO Residential Property Price Index – Nov 2018 figures

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ember2018/

Dublin houses at

-1.1% monthly change
0.3% quarterly change
3.8% change since Jan 2018
4.6% annual change


20% of bank mortgages can breach the lending limits.
They use up these exemptions in the first 6 months of the year.

So prices go up in the first 6 months and fall back in the second half.

It's a pattern that's been happening for the past 3 years or so.
Was particularly evident last year though.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:11 am 
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mr_anderson wrote:
20% of bank mortgages can breach the lending limits.
They use up these exemptions in the first 6 months of the year.

So prices go up in the first 6 months and fall back in the second half.

It's a pattern that's been happening for the past 3 years or so.
Was particularly evident last year though.

There is a seasonal effect, but I don't think it's actually caused by the lending limits. It's pretty clear in the quarterly rates of increase for the last six years since prices took off again, especially in the Dublin market. The CB lending limits were only introduced in 2015. Last year was a bit different -- the spring/summer boost was at its lowest since 2013.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:18 pm 
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Back Home with Mammy

Joined: Oct 11, 2017
Posts: 58
mr_anderson wrote:
20% of bank mortgages can breach the lending limits.
They use up these exemptions in the first 6 months of the year.

So prices go up in the first 6 months and fall back in the second half.

It's a pattern that's been happening for the past 3 years or so.
Was particularly evident last year though.
The mood music is very different for 2019.


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