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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:49 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Can we take it that the market has not peaked seeing as nobody is throwing in beemers yet, or is that rather an indication that we are well over the peak and that we could therefore not expect the beemers until 2020 or 2021??


Well my barber told me yesterday it has already peaked :) ....this was based on direct experience of two family members with reasonably priced gaffes in nice areas not having one offer between them since they were listed over a month ago (these are less than 500k)


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:48 pm 
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Less than €500k where, Knocklyon??? That's in Tallaghfornia not scd. :D

Houses in 'nice' areas in Galway list from €300k up but normally you do not list in October if you are in any way serious about selling. We can infer nothing useful from activity between now and March.

As Mr A said a few times in this thread there are limited 'exemptions' from normal prudential affordability rules and a NEW annual quota kicks in on 01 January so then we could see a price spike in Q1 2019 from that system alone and that could even be skewed towards scd. A flood of exemption approvals in Q1 could skew that quarter up in what is a thin market generally.

Quote:
Getting an allowance or exemption means you can borrow substantially more: FTBs on a similar income with an exemption were borrowing €73,330 more, according to Central Bank figures, than someone without a loan-to-income allowance. This is because an exemption means that a borrower may need a deposit of as little as 5 per cent (typically 20 per cent for second and subsequent buyers (SSBs), or 10 per cent for FTBs, while they will be able to borrow about 4.5 times of their income – as against 3.5 times normally.

However, banks are restricted in the exemptions they can grant as follows: 5 per cent of value of mortgages to FTBs; 20 per cent to SSBs; and 10 per cent to buy-to-let buyers. Exemptions also apply when it comes to income multiples, with 20 per cent of FTBs allowed to borrow more than 3.5 times their income, and 10 per cent of SSBs.

As ever you should always listen to Mr Anderson and to his serial wisdom.

I do know a recently appointed hospital consultant who got a mortgage early this year. They had been out foreign for years and would have to be an 'exemption' candidate given their lack of a credit record here. These exemption quotas are like Alt A in the states (not ticking every box on a credit score).

Dude (and dudess wife) even got themselves a pair of nice 181 G wheels. Are they a risk to the system, why no! :D

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:12 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Less than €500k where, Knocklyon??? That's in Tallaghfornia not scd. :D


Nope not Knockylon. I have no idea of the state of the places/amount of rooms etc but the areas cited are not at the lower end of desirability in South Dublin


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:34 pm 
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beattie wrote:
2Pack wrote:
Less than €500k where, Knocklyon??? That's in Tallaghfornia not scd. :D


Nope not Knockylon. I have no idea of the state of the places/amount of rooms etc but the areas cited are not at the lower end of desirability in South Dublin

If you look on MyHome for properties under 500k you'll find quite a few decent areas (Terenure, Goatstown, Milltown, Rathfarnham, etc). Remember that the median price of property sold in Dublin has been about 340k - 360k for most of this year. On the exemptions I've asked around and there are still exemptions available - some are tied to AIPs but most banks have a caveat that if the AIP has an exemption it has a shorter lifespan so inevitably some of these roll back into play if they are not taken up. I'm not convinced that exemptions have a huge effect on the market - as far as I can hear the banks spread them over the quarters based on numbers of sales in the previous years. This means that they can keep a customer who might move to another bank by suggesting that an exemption would be available in the next quarter - 12 weeks isn't that long in the house buying game - and on average is 6 weeks at max - probably closer to 4/5 weeks.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:28 pm 
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Reports from the trenches.

A friend of mine is a FTB in the market for a two-bed in the Grand Canal Dock area. She’s a very high earner, no kids, and is looking for something in the €400k-€450k bracket. She’s probably looking at an LTV of less than 50%.

She’s never actively looked at property til a few months ago and says the market is like a glacier. Open viewings where maybe one other person shows up, stuff sitting on the market for months at a time, EAs very happy to take calls. Looking at the PPR, she reckons a lot of unrealistic asking prices and sale prices probably down 5% from where they were at the very start of 2018. Some of this is seasonal, but she reckons investors are cashing out and none are coming in. Seven years have passed since the CGT exemption introduced in 2011, and gross yields are much more interesting elsewhere. The forthcoming Airbnb ban might also be having a dampening effect.

This is still all very anecdotal, but if the national market is going to plateau, or even dip, you would see it first at the very high end in Dublin.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:54 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Reports from the trenches.

A friend of mine is a FTB in the market for a two-bed in the Grand Canal Dock area. She’s a very high earner, no kids, and is looking for something in the €400k-€450k bracket. She’s probably looking at an LTV of less than 50%.

She’s never actively looked at property til a few months ago and says the market is like a glacier. Open viewings where maybe one other person shows up, stuff sitting on the market for months at a time, EAs very happy to take calls. Looking at the PPR, she reckons a lot of unrealistic asking prices and sale prices probably down 5% from where they were at the very start of 2018. Some of this is seasonal, but she reckons investors are cashing out and none are coming in. Seven years have passed since the CGT exemption introduced in 2011, and gross yields are much more interesting elsewhere. The forthcoming Airbnb ban might also be having a dampening effect.

This is still all very anecdotal, but if the national market is going to plateau, or even dip, you would see it first at the very high end in Dublin.



thats not the very high end though? we sold an apartment in blackrock 2years ago for well in excess of that.


Last edited by cyrusir on Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:05 pm 
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I think price per square metre in GCD can reasonably be described as 'high end'.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:57 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
I think price per square metre in GCD can reasonably be described as 'high end'.


fair enough however i dont think you can call anything sub 500k as high end notwithstanding the per m prices, in absolute terms it isnt.

apartments on shelbourne road are high end and they are selling like hot cakes apparently


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:52 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – Oct 2018 figures are out

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... tober2018/

Dublin houses at

0.9% monthly change
2.8% quarterly change
5.7% change since Jan 2018
6.7% annual change


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