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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:56 pm 
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Just talking and listening to gossip, rumours and anecdotes around the place I'm beginning to get the feeling that the market is on the turn. The last time I felt like this the market didn't actually crash for another two years so maybe this is an early canary!

Talking to a retired EA last month he said that 2000 houses sold in Dublin in July and that 600 were new. Looking at the PPR figures for July I get around 1800 and 500 so not quite true but close enough and there were a number of multiple sales so maybe it's not that far off - he's been pretty accurate in the past. He also said that August was a disaster but that September was picking up. Looking at the PPR figures it shows 1516 (about 100 less than last year - hardly a disaster). Too early to tell for September.

He also talked about new houses - he said that new houses in large developments in places like Swords, Finglas etc priced in the 350 - 450 k range sell very well but one off houses in SCD are still difficult to shift as they are over priced. SCD new developments are selling very slowly.

Any of the house hunting generation at work are looking outside Dublin - generally on the N2/N3 where there are good bus services (on bus lanes) into the city. I only know one person looking at Dublin (a married foreign national) - he has a budget of 500k but wants SCD on a bus/Luas route - when he told me that I said 'Good Luck' but he says he is now seeing properties in his price range in the areas he wants - they're not the property he wants but he says he feels more hopeful every month that something will turn up.

There are currently 5700 Dublin properties on sale on myhome and have been since late August. My retired EA reckons the higher numbers are because people have gone back to double listing on Daft and MyHome - that may be the case, it's difficult to tell. Sales this year seem to be above or in line with last year but maybe the August dip will continue.

A couple of years ago someone told me to watch Terenure - they said that this area had the oldest population in Dublin and reckoned that roughly 5% of the housing stock would come on the market per year for the next ten years. I'm not sure if that figure is accurate but there certainly are a lot of houses on sale at the moment (73) and there is a high percentage of price drops in recent months. Might be a good place to look!

There are economic factors as well - the stock markets are softening and everybody thinks they are in line for a crash and since it is a confidence based bubble it will be self-fulfilling - it's just a matter of when. I get the feeling that those that were invested in the Dublin residential market have already pulled out - when the capital appreciation falls under 10% pa these folks are gone - the reward does not balance the risk in a market that is close to peak. Only the suckers are still at the table. Some of the big IT companies are heading for a fall as well - Uber and AirBnb are likely to find their business model whisked away from them by regulation in Western markets. Facebook and Google have massive problems on the content side that are almost insurmountable - a lot of Dublin jobs rely on content adjudication - that won't stay here for long - it will be automated or go east - partly from straightforward labour costs - but mainly from the legal risks - people working in this area are already raising PTSD claims - eastern destinations are less litigious. The cheap labour that has stoked the rental market is also slowing - the net salaries after living expenses here are much more widely known now. The only people coming here are people who do the education - work visa - citizenship route - they know they are making a five year sacrifice but want to do it to get away from the countries of their birth.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:03 am 
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metalmike wrote:

A couple of years ago someone told me to watch Terenure - they said that this area had the oldest population in Dublin and reckoned that roughly 5% of the housing stock would come on the market per year for the next ten years. I'm not sure if that figure is accurate but there certainly are a lot of houses on sale at the moment (73) and there is a high percentage of price drops in recent months. Might be a good place to look!

Good post. I reckon Crumlin is of a similar if not a higher demographic generational transition in the next five years.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:50 pm 
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Since I had a day on the doss today I had a look at the PPR house sales figures for what I would describe as the inner pale (Meath, Kildare, Louth and Wicklow) for the first 8 months of this year (5152) vs last year (4982) - so not much of a difference (about +4%) - Dublin is about +8% over the same period. So even though (anecdotally) people are looking in those areas they're not actually buying. If you take the outer pale (Carlow, Wexford, Laois, Offaly and Westmeath) the difference (3067 for 2018 vs 2981 for 2017) is even more minuscule. So much for that theory.

The latest laugh I got was that an EA told a friend who was selling that the prices in the PPR couldn't be trusted because people were lying about the prices they got and the huge sales from the vulture funds were distorting the figures. When they start to say it's fake news you know they are losing the battle.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:11 pm 
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I am inclined to think there is another year or so in this upcycle and that a turn will occur (Q on Q and same Month to same Month) in Q3 2019 and specifically in September 2019. This is my inclination, a very soft forecast if you will.

That will therefore mark 7 years and 3 months of expansion since I started this thread. Hopefully Grumpy will be in like a flash to lock this thread up permanently by this time next year. Someone else will have to sniff around for the next bottom. :) :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:12 am 
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metalmike wrote:
The latest laugh I got was that an EA told a friend who was selling that the prices in the PPR couldn't be trusted because people were lying about the prices they got and the huge sales from the vulture funds were distorting the figures. When they start to say it's fake news you know they are losing the battle.

EAs are such shitbags. "People" don't update the PPR. The data comes from stamp duty returns in the Revenue e-Stamping system. Its use has been mandatory since July 2011, and it is filled in by the solicitor doing the conveyancing.

P.S. Does the thread title now need to be changed to "2Pack calls the top"? :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:19 am 
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2Pack wrote:
I am inclined to think there is another year or so in this upcycle and that a turn will occur (Q on Q and same Month to same Month) in Q3 2019 and specifically in September 2019. This is my inclination, a very soft forecast if you will.

That will therefore mark 7 years and 3 months of expansion since I started this thread. Hopefully Grumpy will be in like a flash to lock this thread up permanently by this time next year. Someone else will have to sniff around for the next bottom. :) :)


Well here I am talking about property for a change. XD

What I'm seeing, actually hearing is that US housing is maybe going to really wobble bad (or worse) around a similar time frame in 2019 or possibly even a bit sooner. Inventory is rising and sales I think are dealing.

The shine is ready to come of a lot of things and there are also some forces working right now as we type to crash stuff, so that might quicken the pace.

The podcasts I'm listening to are painting a very bad picture going off the latest US housing stats. Sorry don't have link right now (Curse of podcasts) but I'll try source if someone else doesn't get there first.

Click here for dedicated thread on US Housing Stats

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:53 am 
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Open Window wrote:


What I'm seeing, actually hearing is that US housing is maybe going to really wobble bad (or worse) around a similar time frame in 2019 or possibly even a bit sooner. Inventory is rising and sales I think are dealing.


It is localised though. Seattle and the NW look like a crash. So does South California (again) according to Dr Housing Bubble himself. Canada is meeeh too. SF will finally get it if the tech bubble gets popped, just look at this shite in SF :)

Could we have a more global and a much more synchronised downturn in 2019 with Australia and Canada also joining in unlike 2008-2010. This is entirely possible. But this is not the thread for a global housing crash dude. :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:06 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
Open Window wrote:


What I'm seeing, actually hearing is that US housing is maybe going to really wobble bad (or worse) around a similar time frame in 2019 or possibly even a bit sooner. Inventory is rising and sales I think are dealing.


It is localised though. Seattle and the NW look like a crash. So does South California (again) according to Dr Housing Bubble himself. Canada is meeeh too. SF will finally get it if the tech bubble gets popped, just look at this shite in SF :)

Could we have a more global and a much more synchronised downturn in 2019 with Australia and Canada also joining in unlike 2008-2010. This is entirely possible. But this is not the thread for a global housing crash dude. :)


Yes - 70's Oil crisis type affair but for other reasons. In conclusion, we also need a global housing crash thread then, jaysus :| - click here to go to the 2019 Global Property Housing Crash thread.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:16 pm 
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Cost of Dublin luxury homes falls for first time since recovery

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/con ... -1.3680682


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:34 pm 
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CSO Residential Property Price Index – Sep 2018 figures are out

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ember2018/

Dublin houses at

0.4% monthly change
2.0% quarterly change
3.9% change since Jan 2018
5.5% annual change


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:48 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
metalmike wrote:
The latest laugh I got was that an EA told a friend who was selling that the prices in the PPR couldn't be trusted because people were lying about the prices they got and the huge sales from the vulture funds were distorting the figures. When they start to say it's fake news you know they are losing the battle.

EAs are such shitbags. "People" don't update the PPR. The data comes from stamp duty returns in the Revenue e-Stamping system. Its use has been mandatory since July 2011, and it is filled in by the solicitor doing the conveyancing...

True, but a friend made an offer on a house during the summer, and the EA came back and asked them to pay 10% under the table.
They refused to, but who knows how many would be happy to do so to close the deal.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:49 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
CSO Residential Property Price Index – Sep 2018 figures are out

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic ... ember2018/

Dublin houses at

0.4% monthly change
2.0% quarterly change
3.9% change since Jan 2018
5.5% annual change


Dublin prices are still rising in other words, it does not matter that a limited set of scd homes are showing sogginess.

Nationally prices are rising quite strongly and in areas still in catchup mode, such as Limerick, house prices are rising by 20% p/a

Nationally prices rose 10% for houses and 15% for apartments. in the thin market from now to May there will be very little change (they might recover even) . The fun starts in summer next year when the April and May figures come out.

I will repeat my recent guidance.

Quote:
I am inclined to think there is another year or so in this upcycle and that a turn will occur (Q on Q and same Month to same Month) in Q3 2019 and specifically in September 2019.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:38 pm 
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But why is there "Sogginess" in a certain set of SCD homes. The two houses I have in mind had pluses and minuses to each of them but Realised prices are clearly down YTD on my road.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:56 pm 
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GameBlame wrote:
But why is there "Sogginess" in a certain set of SCD homes. The two houses I have in mind had pluses and minuses to each of them but Realised prices are clearly down YTD on my road.


By much?


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:46 am 
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beattie wrote:
GameBlame wrote:
But why is there "Sogginess" in a certain set of SCD homes. The two houses I have in mind had pluses and minuses to each of them but Realised prices are clearly down YTD on my road.


By much?


4% approx. I'm not suggesting a crash. And each house had its pluses and minuses. But that's not prices in Dublin are still rising, is it


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