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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:53 am 
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GameBlame wrote:
But that's not prices in Dublin are still rising, is it

Its amazing how much one has to explain, serially, to slow learners in south dublin. Prices in Dublin are rising, thats official.

Whether houses are clearing at or above the deluded asking prices set by greedy self entitled cunts in south dublin is a different question entirely as is the possibility that peak delusion in south dublin peaked before the morkesh itself did.

I don't think SCD is a canary this time, a bubble wrapped in an enigma and cold rolled in shite more like. That is an honest analysis FWIW. :D

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:29 am 
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These are actual sales prices not asking prices. Down YTD. But just on 2 houses.

What you seem to be saying is that delusional asking prices peaked in SCD a full year before your expected Q3 2019 realised prices peak. How likely is that lag ?


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:38 am 
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GameBlame wrote:
These are actual sales prices not asking prices. Down YTD. But just on 2 houses.

What you seem to be saying is that delusional asking prices peaked in SCD a full year before your expected Q3 2019 realised prices peak. How likely is that lag ?


You are assuming that scd is some kind of general leading a charge (or retreat), it is an isolate in national terms as only a fraction of the population live there.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:44 am 
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2Pack wrote:
You are assuming that scd is some kind of general leading a charge (or retreat), it is an isolate in national terms as only a fraction of the population live there.

Exactly. Asking prices have been softening in SCD since the second quarter of the year, and the rest of Dublin may have been following recently, but who the hell knows how that matches up to achieved prices. I long ago gave up trying to match individual asking prices to sales as the data is too crappy to give a decent read, and asking prices have tended to dip in the last quarter most years anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:30 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
2Pack wrote:
You are assuming that scd is some kind of general leading a charge (or retreat), it is an isolate in national terms as only a fraction of the population live there.

Exactly. Asking prices have been softening in SCD since the second quarter of the year, and the rest of Dublin may have been following recently, but who the hell knows how that matches up to achieved prices. I long ago gave up trying to match individual asking prices to sales as the data is too crappy to give a decent read, and asking prices have tended to dip in the last quarter most years anyway.


How long back has that been happening ?
I think recently the banks lend out their 'exemption' mortgages within the first 6 months of the year.
This pushes up prices.
Then in the second half, they are limited to the standard 3.5x income, thus contracting the market.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:36 am 
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2Pack wrote:
GameBlame wrote:
These are actual sales prices not asking prices. Down YTD. But just on 2 houses.

What you seem to be saying is that delusional asking prices peaked in SCD a full year before your expected Q3 2019 realised prices peak. How likely is that lag ?


You are assuming that scd is some kind of general leading a charge (or retreat), it is an isolate in national terms as only a fraction of the population live there.


I failed in the last boom so I don't assume anything. I accept affordability is still very much there in lots of the country. Perhaps you could buy something cheaper than you could build it in places still.

The delusions in SCD asking prices is a recurrent illness there. Is the "sogginess" in achieved prices there just a Q3 Q4 2018 thing or what does it signify ? For one thing it tells SCD people they're not getting richer. Which is bad news for Leo's election plans.


SCD's woes don't affect Longford, I know that. Longford prices are too low for that.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:08 pm 
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Quote:
You are assuming that scd is some kind of general leading a charge (or retreat), it is an isolate in national terms as only a fraction of the population live there.


Perhaps that assumption is untrue, but it's more of a confidence indicator. SCD 1st up, and 1st down. High end London 1st up, 1st down.
It's a method of looking at the edges to observe a trend. You could equally look at the lowest of the low end to try and figure out the state of the market.


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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:19 pm 
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If I remember correctly from the bust, auction sales for SoCoDu property started failing in March 06. Of course in the pre PPR days they could spin the "withdrawn but sold for a higher price later" line and no one could contradict it.

It took two years before the last asking price rises were recorded in Kilkenny and Tipperary.

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:10 am 
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catbear wrote:
If I remember correctly from the bust, auction sales for SoCoDu property started failing in March 06.

I'll hazard you are entirely correct but the then 'essential' Irish Times property supplement was able to gush and gloop over failures like that back in 2006. We had no hard information, like you say.

Nobody believes that comic any more. :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2Pack will call the bottom now!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:22 pm 
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https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.3696481

Does anyone remember the new builds that were launched c. 2006-2008 that came with a "free" mini cooper? I can find no trace of it on the internet but I've a clear memory of it


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