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What kind of property do you want to raise kids in?
Apartment 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Semi-D 25%  25%  [ 17 ]
Detached 52%  52%  [ 35 ]
One off rural 18%  18%  [ 12 ]
Total votes : 67
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 Post subject: Re: Fertility Rates/Property/Urbanisation jumble
PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:56 am 
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https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyl ... ials-study
Quote:
The results reveal that young adults aged between 20 and 24 and born in the 1990s were more than twice as likely to report that they had had no sexual partners since the age of 18 than young adults of the same age born in the 1960s. Just over 15% of the 90s-born group reported that they had not had sex since they turned 18, compared to almost 12% of those born in the 1970s or 1980s. For those born in the 60s the figure was just over 6%


There are all sorts of fancy ideas floated as to why this is happening from porn to virginity pledges..................simple linked to having to live at home for longer I bet.................

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66087

Quote:
For First Time in Modern Era, Living With Parents Edges Out Other Living Arrangements for 18- to 34-Year-Olds


http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/ ... year-olds/

grumpy wrote:



viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66248


Following the Japanese completely except that we are replacing ourselves with the peoples of the middle east. If in 200 years time Europe is Islamic I wouldnt like to be around and good luck to the US and whoever is around that would be considered an infidel.........!!

All this crap is linked to our messed up economic systems


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 Post subject: Re: Fertility Rates/Property/Urbanisation jumble
PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:17 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
The point is that all are appropriate at various stages. Apartment's aren't "bad". For example, small 1-beds enable people in their 20s to live alone at affordable rates, rather than house-sharing. 2-bed apartment can be perfect for a couple with one kid but not ready to commit to an area. If we built decent size 3-bed apartments with decent amenities they would be fine for families too, but unfortunately we don't. The question "when it comes to raising children would living in an apartment put you off somewhat" doesn't make sense -- living in an apartment is a good time to start having kids.


Tis all a state of mind. My other half had a very different upbringing from myself - an eastern-block apartment system* versus a v rural Irish setting. We were both happy in our own ways.

* I'm actually v envious of the build quality of the average 'block'.

HiFi wrote:
Have had one child - up to about three years of age - in a two-bed apartment. Moved to a three bed semi and had another. Then moved to a four bed detached with still just the two kids. All were fine in their own way at the time - but it's hard to beat detached with a bit of space...and no noise worries is a big plus for me...


For me, it all comes down to this. Relative 'peace' is a huge part of what it takes to make up the best living space.


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 Post subject: Re: Fertility Rates/Property/Urbanisation jumble
PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2016 3:36 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
If in 200 years time Europe is Islamic I wouldnt like to be around and good luck to the US and whoever is around that would be considered an infidel.........!!

All this crap is linked to our messed up economic systems

Middle east birth rates are plummeting.

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 Post subject: Re: Fertility Rates/Property/Urbanisation jumble
PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:37 am 
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catbear wrote:
Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
If in 200 years time Europe is Islamic I wouldnt like to be around and good luck to the US and whoever is around that would be considered an infidel.........!!

All this crap is linked to our messed up economic systems

Middle east birth rates are plummeting.


They are only behind sub saharan Africa as the highest in the world, they are still high.
http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?t=0&v=25&r=xx&l=en

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-ea ... e-crescent

Quote:
Population growth in the Middle East, though higher than everywhere but sub-Saharan Africa, has been slowing thanks to falling fertility rates, the measure used by demographers for the number of children a woman is likely to have. But after 50 years of decline, the fertility rate in Egypt, the region’s most populous nation, is now back up to 3.5. That is lower than in Iraq and Yemen where it is over four, but above Saudi Arabia and Iran, which with 77m has the second-largest number of people in the region. Since infant mortality is falling and life expectancy increasing, the population will surely start growing faster.

By 2050 the UN thinks Egypt could be home to up to 140m people


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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:49 am 
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yip, sub sahara is a definite boom area.

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:02 pm 
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A lot of sub sahara boom is caused by foreign aid, which very often do more harm than good. Foreign aid is very often killing the local farming as they cannot compete with free high tech stuff from USA or elsewhere.

A lot of africans don't want help from "good" white folks, they want investment and they want those jobs.

Chineese involvement in Africa is interesting. Strictly business, no guilt and probably long-term:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0C4_88ub_M

Map of investment:
https://www.scmp.com/sites/default/file ... africa.png

Maybe this should go to a proper topic if there is one..

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 5:26 pm 
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mightyz wrote:

Maybe this should go to a proper topic if there is one..

Are the huge reductions in infant mortality there causing a population boom which creates massive social imbalances?

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2016 5:49 pm 
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Do you have some data about mortality?
Makes a lot of sense. There is probably a correlation between the two

Hans Rosling gave few nice talks about it some time ago:
https://www.ted.com/speakers/hans_rosling

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:00 am 
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Most anecdotes about population are, to put it generously, complete horse shite. Ask most people and they think there are too many people being born in China or Sub-Saharan Africa. As far as I can see it's pure xenophobia. Sub-Saharan Africa quadrupled its population density from 1961 to 2015. That brought its population density to ... the same as Ireland had in 1961 ! And Ireland today -- having increased its population by two thirds over the same period -- is one of the least populated places in the rich world, with about a quarter of the population density of the UK or Germany. Sub-Saharan Africa is barely more populous than the United States, one of the emptiest places on planet Earth.

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 1:56 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Most anecdotes about population are, to put it generously, complete horse shite. Ask most people and they think there are too many people being born in China or Sub-Saharan Africa. As far as I can see it's pure xenophobia. Sub-Saharan Africa quadrupled its population density from 1961 to 2015. That brought its population density to ... the same as Ireland had in 1961 ! And Ireland today -- having increased its population by two thirds over the same period -- is one of the least populated places in the rich world, with about a quarter of the population density of the UK or Germany. Sub-Saharan Africa is barely more populous than the United States, one of the emptiest places on planet Earth.


Facts are not anecdotes, and population growth in many countries is a serious problem, in 1960 Nigeria had a population of 45 million people, today its 180 million people, from 1960 to today if they had little or no population growth I bet most of their problems would have been solved, or take Egypt as an example, in 1981 when Mubarak came to power the population was 45 million, today its more than 80 million and growing, Mubarak and his regime despite the corruption actually were good for economic growth, but in the end if population growth outpaces economic growth then the number of pissed off people can only grow, this is the future of Africa and the Islamic world

its true that sub-Saharan Africa is vast and has plenty of room for its population, but as the number of Africans grows the number who wish to move to Europe will also grow, and the problem is a large % of people in Europe think its a good idea to have an open boarder policy with Africa and the Middle East, the facts be dammed ideology will trump all facts

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:36 am 
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don't forget the climate change.

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For future reference, a 'soft landing' theorem:
06/2007: Central Bank predicts soft landing for housing
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 96858.html
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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:15 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
Most anecdotes about population are, to put it generously, complete horse shite. Ask most people and they think there are too many people being born in China or Sub-Saharan Africa. As far as I can see it's pure xenophobia. Sub-Saharan Africa quadrupled its population density from 1961 to 2015. That brought its population density to ... the same as Ireland had in 1961 ! And Ireland today -- having increased its population by two thirds over the same period -- is one of the least populated places in the rich world, with about a quarter of the population density of the UK or Germany. Sub-Saharan Africa is barely more populous than the United States, one of the emptiest places on planet Earth.


+1

Neo-Malthusianism is always a good laugh but nothing else.

There are millions of untilled square kilometres on the planet.

These are not given over to agriculture simply because it is not profitable to do so at current population levels.

Modest improvements in Africa's appalling levels of agricultural productivity would keep it fed with twice the population.


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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:55 am 
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Yet another thread derailed by the anti immigration guys.

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 6:50 pm 
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Demographic changes such as reduced infant mortality can have later destablising effects. Societies that were used to famine been a population break may face revolutions when there's a sudden bulge in population where too many people of a fighting age are unemployed and frustrated.

Ceausescu banned abortion and birth control to make increase Romania's population but ironically was overthrown in violent revolution in which most of the protesters who died were of that demographic bulge.

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:09 pm 
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Quote:
'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates

There has been a remarkable global decline in the number of children women are having, say researchers.

Their report found fertility rate falls meant nearly half of countries were now facing a "baby bust" - meaning there are insufficient children to maintain their population size.

The researchers said the findings were a "huge surprise".

And there would be profound consequences for societies with "more grandparents than grandchildren".
How big has the fall been?

The study, published in the Lancet, followed trends in every country from 1950 to 2017.

In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. The fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman by last year.

But that masks huge variation between nations.

The fertility rate in Niger, west Africa, is 7.1, but in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus women are having one child, on average.

In the UK, the rate is 1.7, similar to most Western European countries.

How high does the fertility rate have to be?

Whenever a country's average fertility rate drops below approximately 2.1 then populations will eventually start to shrink (this "baby bust" figure is significantly higher in countries which have high rates of death in childhood).

...


https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46118103

Invest in babies. Not property 8DD

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