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What kind of property do you want to raise kids in?
Apartment 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Semi-D 25%  25%  [ 17 ]
Detached 52%  52%  [ 35 ]
One off rural 18%  18%  [ 12 ]
Total votes : 67
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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:03 pm 
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'Remarkable' decline in fertility rates

I'll use that in my chat up lines in future

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:15 pm 
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Is this not good news for the planet and the future of humanity?

And evidence that increasing sharing of wealth reduces population pressures? (moving from agrarian to 'urban').

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:27 pm 
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Quote:
Is this not good news for the planet and the future of humanity?


@yoganmahew

Who can know? Who is to say?


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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:03 pm 
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snaps wrote:
Quote:
Is this not good news for the planet and the future of humanity?


@yoganmahew

Who can know? Who is to say?

Erm, well, talk to any geographer and they'll tell you that population pressures are increasing desertification and conversion of marginal land. Talk to climate scientists (the actual science ones) and they'll tell you that climate change is man made.

But experts, huh! :-GC

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:57 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
snaps wrote:
Quote:
Is this not good news for the planet and the future of humanity?


@yoganmahew

Who can know? Who is to say?

Erm, well, talk to any geographer and they'll tell you that population pressures are increasing desertification and conversion of marginal land. Talk to climate scientists (the actual science ones) and they'll tell you that climate change is man made.

But experts, huh! :-GC

It goes without saying that the local climate will change if you replace trees with concrete, savannah with grasslands that turn into deserts etc, etc and all we hear is CO2! CO2 from burning fossil fuels, is the root cause of all evil.

Man terraforming the planet is the cause of climate change and no one is brave enough to stand up and say this hard fact.

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:04 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
yoganmahew wrote:
snaps wrote:
Quote:
Is this not good news for the planet and the future of humanity?


@yoganmahew

Who can know? Who is to say?

Erm, well, talk to any geographer and they'll tell you that population pressures are increasing desertification and conversion of marginal land. Talk to climate scientists (the actual science ones) and they'll tell you that climate change is man made.

But experts, huh! :-GC

It goes without saying that the local climate will change if you replace trees with concrete, savannah with grasslands that turn into deserts etc, etc and all we hear is CO2! CO2 from burning fossil fuels, is the root cause of all evil.

Man terraforming the planet is the cause of climate change and no one is brave enough to stand up and say this hard fact.



If CO2 is such an evil, why do we keep allowing Coca Cola and beer companies pack their products full of it? Instead of stamping down on hydrocarbons maybe it would be better just tell Coca Cola and Pepsi on your bike sonny


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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:37 pm 
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 2713001904

Quote:
Highlights

• We investigate how metropolitan area house prices affect birth rates.
• Increases in house prices exert a negative price effect on fertility rates.


Quote:
Our results suggest that indeed, short-term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non-owners and a net increase among owners. The estimates imply that a $10,000 increase leads to a 5% increase in fertility rates among owners and a 2.4% decrease among non-owners. At the mean U.S. home ownership rate, these estimates imply that the net effect of a $10,000 increase in house prices is a 0.8% increase in current period fertility rates. Given underlying differences in home ownership rates, the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups. In addition, we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates.


https://www.businessinsider.com/real-es ... ?r=AU&IR=T

Quote:
People who move from rural to urban areas, and become more affluent as a result, have fewer kids. They strive to educate and raise them better as a result.

In rural areas, housing costs are much lower and the kids often help on the farms – even after elementary school, historically speaking.

But in urban areas, the cost of living is much higher – along with real estate prices – making it costlier to raise kids in the city. That cost then increases as they get older, especially if they decide to go to college.


Image
Quote:
The five lines in this chart represent the five quintiles of degrees of housing appreciation. The darker the line, the higher the housing appreciation.

The highest quintile, or top 20% for home appreciation, have seen a whopping 13% decline in birth rates between 2010 and 2016. The next highest quintile has seen an 8% decline. The lowest three quintiles have seen between 5% and 6.5% declines.

It’s perfectly clear: Rising home prices correlate with falling birth rates, and the higher, the greater!


Quote:
NSW has had its lowest birthrate in five years according to the latest Mothers and Babies report, and experts are blaming it on the state’s booming property prices and women opting for completing their Masters Degrees instead.

https://myaccount.news.com.au/sites/dai ... =anonymous


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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:42 pm 
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Posts: 231
Ireland used to be an exception to all these trends. We had exceptionally high fertility rates, very large families and large net migration.

We still have the youngest population in Ireland but things are changing rapidly and policy makers seem blind to the implications. The government's long-range vision is embodied in the National Planning Framework 2040, launched with great fanfare earlier this year, but discussion of demographic changes - the fundamental parameter for national planning - was limited to constant repetition of "an extra million people" . I assume no Minister wanted to say how many of these additional residents would be migrants although that will be the main driver because the Irish baby boomers (i.e. born in the 1970s, long after the Anglo-American baby boom) have almost finished child-bearing.

The official CSO projections are below but they are based on statistics up to 2011 and the fertility rate has now declined markedly compared to the post-crash years, perhaps because of much improved job opportunities . The CSO's lowest assumption is that fertility will decline to 1.8 by 2026 and remain constant thereafter but fertility is already down to 1.8 and the annual number of births is down by over 20%, from 77K. in 2010 to an estimated 62K. this year. Now that the most fertile age group (early 30s) is declining, the number of births is bound to decline.

Emigration used to be the main constant in Irish demographics but now net immigration is the great imponderable. As the CSO report says of migration
Quote:
Of the three factors that determine population change, namely births, deaths and migration, from an Irish perspective this latter factor is by far the most influential, volatile and uncertain.

Immigration peaked at 150 K in a single year (2007) and then collapsed to 40K two years later. We reverted to our tradition of net emigration for a few years but net immigration has been rising rapidly in the past four years and is estimated at 34K this year, already exceeding the highest assumption in the CSO report. Of course, even on the PIN, there can be no discussion of migration because it immediately turns into an argument about racism.

The key point is that migration guarantees our population growth will reflect our overall economic development, especially job opportunities for migrants. Brexit and Trump could put a spanner in our works but otherwise it is reasonable to assume our economy will move in line with the Single Market i.e. non-EU migrants will be the main source of variability because good times here will coincide with good times elsewhere in the EU, and vice-versa.

In short, I expect the "million extra people" by 2026, largely driven by net migration which means it is highly vulnerable to an economic shock. The inability of successive Irish governments to ensure a stable housing market and an adequate health service means that continued economic prosperity will result in an ongoing housing crisis in Dublin and a health service overwhelmed by demand, regardless of the money thrown at it.

https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/relea ... 6_2046.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:55 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
Immigration peaked at 150 K in a single year (2007) and then collapsed to 40K two years later. We reverted to our tradition of net emigration for a few years but net immigration has been rising rapidly in the past four years and is estimated at 34K this year, already exceeding the highest assumption in the CSO report. Of course, even on the PIN, there can be no discussion of migration because it immediately turns into an argument about racism.

I think that 2007 is important for another reason, it too I believe the peak of eastern european immigrants on the move. The trend is now going in reverse with less inclined to move as home economies improve.

Plus I reckon a good chunk of that 34K are returning Irish emigrants, myself included. Although I'm abroad in england again for a short stint it is interesting to note here that immigrant shortages are common too from the traditional non-EU sources. I was chatting with an Indian man who'd spent 50 years in England who now says the flow is going in reverse as India is providing better opportunities and more importantly he stressed respect for his grandkids.

I fully expect horror stories to emanate from Britain in the coming years of nursing home neglect on the scale of the Romanian orphanages. What's not countered in the talk of immigrants that an abundance can become a scarcity that all western nations will be competing against eachother for.

Even that great homogeneous immigration holdout Japan has opened up in last decade.
Image
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article ... mmigration

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 Post subject: Re: Going Japanese AKA The Disapearance Of The Western World
PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:41 am 
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25% of couples in thirties are "sexless"

https://www.relate.org.uk/about-us/medi ... re-sexless

I don't generally think about these things :wink: but the Sunday Telegraph had a full page article about how pornography and Internet dating were actually reducing sexual activity in the youth and this has knock on effects into 30s....because they could have anyone, they end up having no-one. The paradox of choice.


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