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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:12 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
While you may have faith in the CSO and their population figures, I don't.

I don't necessarily have faith in them either. Do you have a better source of statistics?

Nonetheless, the CSO stats do show a significant increase within the Dublin region of people at an age where they would like to live independently, i.e. "demand" of some sort of another; I thought you were saying that the CSO figures couldn't explain the demand.

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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:40 pm 
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Nope, no better source. I'm basing my theory on what I see and trying to make sense of how a housing crisis could have developed at a time when we were told:
1. Irish people were emmigrating in their tens of thousands
2. we had a glut of property and as a result rents fell very quickly
3. Immigrant numbers, especially Eastern European, had either fallen or levelled off according to the census/cso stats

And yet very quickly rents turned around and started to take off And accommodation became as rare as a hens tooth in major urban areas. While TV docs and newspaper coverage was given to the phenomenon of 20/30 somethings continuing to live at home with their parents, in some cases after becoming parents themselves.

To me it all pointed to unrecorded large scale immigration which was either being deliberately under reported or missed at the borders. That's my take on it, just a personal view point.


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:48 pm 
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@FreeFallin, you're completely right. One aspect of the 'repopulation' policy was that the doors were opened through 'study visas', frequently through fake English language schools that facilitated tens of thousands to move here and work without any questions being asked. Also certain countries were given removed from requiring education visas (most notably Brazil), and at least 40% of immigrants made use of this scheme. This was all part of a policy of creating demand for property and forcing up rents and yield, and ultimately prices, while simultaneously forcing down labour costs.


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:17 pm 
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Coles, I'm stunned to see you completely agreeing with me :shock: . I'd be shocked if you even slightly agreed with me on anything!!!

However I'd not be so presumptuous as to say I'm 'completely right'. It's just my opinion on what I see around me every day and trying to add the sums together to understand how a housing crisis could have appeared so suddenly at a time when the economy was still on it knees.
I'd not point to non-EU countries entirely...open borders with the EU has played the major part in the current housing crisis here.

I would have up until 10 odd years ago have had great faith in the census and most stats from the CSO. But when you see the 2016 census saying that the number of Chinese is down on 2011 (-1,300 12%), you've got to laugh. Even the fact that the figures show only 9,575 Chinese in Ireland is a joke IMO. Ireland must be the only country in the world where the Chinese population is falling!


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:31 pm 
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91k new PPS numbers issued in the first 6 months of 2017.
36k to Irish born and 55k to those from outside Ireland.

This housing crisis isn't going to end anytime soon


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:38 am 
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The CSO will (finally) publish a set of revised population and migration estimates that are consistent with Census 2016 next week.

It will see large upward revisions primarily to the population of young, non-Irish born people in urban areas.

We will also have their first go at net migration to April 2017 too. I will publish my own forecast when I've had a closer look at the numbers.


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:58 pm 
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Wow, knock me over with a feather. Who'd have seen this coming

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.3236979
Quote:
More Irish people are leaving Ireland than returning, despite a significant drop in the numbers leaving the country.
Figures published by the Central Statistics Office on Thursday show that 30,800 Irish people moved abroad in the year to April 2017, down 17 per cent on the previous year.
A total of 27,400 Irish people moved back to live in Ireland, down 1,000 on the same period in 2015/16...
...Ireland’s popularity as a destination for non-Irish immigrants is on the up, with the numbers moving here increasing 6 per cent to 57,200.

I still believe that that 57,200 is hopelessly understated


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:22 pm 
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Ten nationalities account for 70% of Non-Irish Nationals

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre ... eland2016/


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:31 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:15 pm 
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temene wrote:
Image
It's as if BRAZIL IS PART OF THE EU! :?:


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:53 pm 
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Well we could easily do with 13,000 odd Brazilians around the place. have you seen the football squad coming through that O'Neill has to pick from lately.

that level, some of whom will be here since 2006, is a manageable enough number (if true) for this country and not taking the piss mass migration.


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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:06 pm 
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Tbh, I'd say many non-Irish did not fill in the Census though. The full census reveals
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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:00 pm 
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I have a hard time believing that the table above is actually from a government agency. Since when is "America" a country? Or "Antigua/Barbuda"?

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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:34 pm 
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Epicurus wrote:
Well we could easily do with 13,000 odd Brazilians around the place. have you seen the football squad coming through that O'Neill has to pick from lately.

that level, some of whom will be here since 2006, is a manageable enough number (if true) for this country and not taking the piss mass migration.


The best football players in Brazil tend to come from the favelas, so we really do seem to be trying to recreate the right conditions for future footballing success

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 Post subject: Re: The Census 2016 Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:38 pm 
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Your starting to come round to my way of thinking with regards to the census figures Mantissa :lol:

If anyone actually believes there are less than 10,000 Nigerians in Ireland as of 2016, I presume they are still writing to Santa!
There was over 17,000 in Ireland as per the 2011 census and even that was probably well under-counted based on the asylum stats in the last 20 years. And now there's 7,000 less with Nigeria as country of origin. CSO should be embarrassed releasing 'stats' like this


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