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 Post subject: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:48 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

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Telegraph reporting that post the Trump victory UK mortgage rates will rise (US rates have risen 0.4%)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-ban ... re-is-why/

The general thrust of the article is that rises are coming to a cinema near everyone? Is this really the case or will EU rates remain immune?


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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:46 am 
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I can confidently predict that yes, rates will rise.

I'd be a little vaguer on the timeframe :-D

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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:24 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
I can confidently predict that yes, rates will rise.

I'd be a little vaguer on the timeframe :-D


:D

Sorry I should have been a bit clearer in the OP...I was wondering more in the short to medium timeframe, can <6m from here


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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:58 am 
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They will have to rise in UK in next year or two because Brexit caused inflation and falling pound.

Here? who knows


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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:23 pm 
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Of Systemic Importance

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satechi wrote:
They will have to rise in UK in next year or two because Brexit caused inflation and falling pound

They will not have to rise. The BoE has indicated that it is prepared to tolerate an inflation overshot for a period of time, and exchange rate led inflation is likely to be a one off.

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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:37 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
satechi wrote:
They will have to rise in UK in next year or two because Brexit caused inflation and falling pound

They will not have to rise. The BoE has indicated that it is prepared to tolerate an inflation overshot for a period of time, and exchange rate led inflation is likely to be a one off.


If the European economy remains poor_terrible, rates will remain low into the medium term

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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:23 am 
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There might not be a Eurozone the way things are going. I note the media is already smugly dismissing the prospect of Le Pen, a mistake they made with both Trump and Brexit.


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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:26 pm 
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Scratcher wrote:
There might not be a Eurozone the way things are going. I note the media is already smugly dismissing the prospect of Le Pen, a mistake they made with both Trump and Brexit.


..and a President Fillon would be taking a large sledge-hammer to the ECB status quo too. The Euro in its current configuration is incompatible with any real reforms of the French economy. With both a Fillon or a Le Pen the Ministry in Bercy will be back in the driving seat again and dont be too surprised if the current generation in Bercy see a reset to pre ERM France as the only way forward.

As for interest rates, low while ECB controls the situation under current political direction. This time next year the political landscape of Europe will be very different. So ECB support much less likely. Resulting in a rebound to historical rates while the banks desperately try to rebuild capital base without current huge ECB subsides.

But given all the other fallout from the end of the current status quo higher mortgage rates will the least of your problems. For a start all Irish banks are slill insolvent. And two thirds of all tax revenue would be needed to service the current national debt at (low) historical Irish sovereign interest rates.

What happens next is probably going to be a rerun of the 1980's. For everyone. The US and the UK had a very good 1980's. Ireland did not.


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 Post subject: Re: Will mortgage rates rise here?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 7:20 pm 
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Joined: Jan 29, 2013
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On the subject of betting the Independent.co.uk have this:

Quote:
Odds on Donald Trump being impeached shorten amid flurry of bets on President-elect not serving full term
Ladbrokes opened market on Trump leaving office early by impeachment or resignation at 3-1 but has twice cut its price as punters pile in


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