Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 38 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:39 pm 
Offline
Speculator

Joined: Apr 27, 2014
Posts: 431
Introduction

This question is very relevant to a property discussion forum such as this as people avail of accommodation and this drives demand which affects supply and cost. The demand can be direct – people buy their accommodation – or indirect – people seek to rent accommodation which others must acquire and make available for rent.

It also has potential wider social, cultural, economic and political relevance that I will cover briefly later.

So understanding demand is key to understanding trends in residential property prices and likely future trends.

Supply is easily ascertained through information on planning and building. Also, planning and building occur so slowly that the trends can be accurately determined for up to five years into the future. It is very unlikely that any residential property that will be available sometime in the next five years is not now at some discernible state in the planning or building pipeline.

I have long been disillusioned and dissatisfied with the official population statistics produced by the CSO. Their publically available information contains many internal inconsistencies – numbers stated in one area not agreeing with those elsewhere. However, my problems with the information are greater because I feel the CSO is undercounting the population size. I simply doubt their quality and accuracy of their data

From direct project experience, I know that the public service makes almost no use of CSO population data in planning and making decisions on policies. This is not because the departments feel the information is not accurate. Rather, it is because departments do not proactively plan. They react. The Department of Education does not seek to analyse the demand for education facilities – first, second and third level – in given locations and numbers of places in these facilities based on population. They just react after the fact to changes in demand.

The Department of the Environment does no plan for housing or infrastructure based on likely population changes. Again, they just react after the event at some considerable lag.

The Department of the Transport does not plan for roads or other transport infrastructure based on likely population changes and movement models. As with others, they just react after the event.

The information contained in this analysis comes for the limited publically available sources: Revenue Commissioners, Department of Social Protection, Department of Education, Central Statistics Office, Department of the Environment. It attempts to check data consistency across these channels. A more thorough analysis would require engagement with these organisations to attempt to resolve the data issues.

This is not an academic study. I do not have the time to apply such rigour to any analysis. There are plenty of state-funded institutions such as the ESRI and the CSO that could devote their large taxpayer-funded resources to such a study.

As usual, this is too long because I have shown my calculations and source material so others can review and question it, if they see fit. There are, unfortunately, not too many pictures to make it easier to read and understand.

There are all the usual issues of inconsistent start and end dates of data series that need to be addressed to create a coherent view.



Some Issues With CSO Population Data

There are real issues with the CSO’s population data.

The CSO publish population estimates. Some of the relevant data series are:

• PEA01: Population Estimates (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)

• PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)

They each give the estimate of the population in 2016 as 4,673,700.

The preliminary 2016 census of population from series such as:

• EP001: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2011 to 2016 by Sex, Province County or City, CensusYear and Statistic (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)

give the population as 4,757,976. That is a difference of 84,276.

Some differences will be accounted for because the two sets of data are not date-aligned. The census counts population in April. The estimates may be at the end of the year, though this is not stated.

The CSO calculate estimates by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding migration and subtracting emigration.

So, the 2011 census provides a baseline.

Code:
2012 estimate = 2011 population + births in 2011 – deaths in 2011 + immigration in 2011 - emigration in 2011
2013 estimate = 2012 population estimate + births in 2012 – deaths in 2012 + immigration in 2012 - emigration in 2012



2016 estimate = 2015 population estimate + births in 2015 – deaths in 2015 + immigration in 2015 - emigration in 2015


The numbers of births and deaths in a year are accurate. Any errors will be very small. There are very few unregistered births and deaths in Ireland.

Using this approach, the CSO underestimated their count of the population by 84,276. This error is therefore due to an error in calculation of immigration or emigration or both. The difference is left unfixed and unexplained, so far.

CSO Immigration and Emigration Numbers


The CSO maintain a number of data series on immigration and emigration, such as:

• PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0)

• PEA16: Estimated Emigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire ... =0&PXSId=0)

The information in these is collected by surveys rather than the big count associated with the census.

If you consolidate these two, you get the following net view for the years 2006-2016:

Code:
Year      Emigration                              Immigration                                Net
              Irish        UK        EU     Other     Irish        UK        EU     Other     Irish        UK        EU     Other
2006          15,300     2,200    12,300     6,200    18,900     9,900    62,600    16,400     3,600     7,700    50,300    10,200
2007          12,900     3,700    21,500     8,200    30,700     4,300    97,100    19,000    17,800       600    75,600    10,800
2008          13,100     3,700    23,200     9,000    23,800     6,800    64,300    18,600    10,700     3,100    41,100     9,600
2009          19,200     3,900    37,900    11,000    23,000     3,900    32,600    14,100     3,800         0    -5,300     3,100
2010          28,900     3,000    28,000     9,300    17,900     2,500    15,500     6,000   -11,000      -500   -12,500    -3,300
2011          42,000     4,600    24,100     9,900    19,600     4,100    17,200    12,400   -22,400      -500    -6,900     2,500
2012          46,500     3,500    26,000    11,100    20,600     2,200    17,600    12,400   -25,900    -1,300    -8,400     1,300
2013          50,900     3,900    23,900    10,300    15,700     4,900    18,300    17,100   -35,200     1,000    -5,600     6,800
2014          40,700     2,700    24,100    14,400    11,600     4,900    18,700    25,500   -29,100     2,200    -5,400    11,100
2015          35,300     3,800    24,100    17,700    12,100     5,000    21,700    30,400   -23,200     1,200    -2,400    12,700
2016          31,800     2,600    23,200    18,500    21,100     4,500    22,000    31,800   -10,700     1,900    -1,200    13,300
Total        336,600    37,600   268,300   125,600   215,000    53,000   387,600   203,700  -121,600    15,400   119,300    78,100


In summary the totals for the years 2006-2016 are:

Code:
Emigration         768,100
Immigration        859,300
Net                 91,200


The net figure for immigration over the years 2006-2016 seems far too low.

Now, when you look at the data series PEA21 which contains the CSO’s estimate of population based nationality: Irish, UK, EU and Other - PEA21 Estimated Population by Sex, Nationality and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0), you get:

Code:
Year            Irish            UK            EU         Other         Total
2006         3,802,400       115,500       176,300       138,800     4,233,000
2007         3,856,200       115,500       254,600       149,600     4,375,900
2008         3,909,500       117,900       298,500       159,200     4,485,100
2009         3,958,000       117,100       296,100       162,200     4,533,400
2010         3,994,700       115,900       285,400       158,700     4,554,700
2011         4,017,900       114,900       280,900       161,200     4,574,900
2012         4,035,000       113,000       274,900       162,500     4,585,400
2013         4,038,600       113,400       271,800       169,300     4,593,100
2014         4,045,300       114,900       268,800       180,500     4,609,500
2015         4,057,400       115,500       269,100       193,400     4,635,400
2016         4,079,800       116,700       270,300       206,900     4,673,700
Increase       277,400         1,200        94,000        68,100       440,700


The UK net increase number of 1,200 over this interval seem very low.

Note that this series still contains the inaccurate 2016 population number of 4,673,700.

When you summarise and consolidate PEA16 (emigration), PEA17 (immigration) and PEA21 (population) you get:

Code:
Years 2006-2016           Irish          UK          EU       Other       Total
Increase                 277,400       1,200      94,000      68,100     440,700
Net Immigration         -121,600      15,400     119,300      78,100      91,200


Then when you add details on births and deaths from VSQ01: Births and Deaths Registered by Sex, Quarter and Statistic (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) you get:

Code:
Year         Population   Net Immigration  Net Births Over Deaths
2006           4,233,000            71,800                  36,758
2007           4,375,900           104,800                  42,570
2008           4,485,100            64,500                  47,532
2009           4,533,400             1,600                  46,030
2010           4,554,700           -27,300                  47,411
2011           4,574,900           -27,300                  45,655
2012           4,585,400           -34,300                  43,377
2013           4,593,100           -33,000                  38,912
2014           4,609,500           -21,200                  38,367
2015           4,635,400           -11,700                  35,957
2016           4,673,700             3,300                  34,617
Total            440,700            91,200                 457,186


An apparent net population increase of 440,700 but an increase of 548,386 based on adding the net immigration and net births over deaths numbers. Note that I interpolated the numbers of births and deaths for the two quarters 2016Q3 and 2016Q4 because they are not available in the VSQ01 series

The net difference between these two numbers is 107,686 which is greater than the difference between the 2016 population estimate and 2016 census number of 84,276.

So there are multiple inconsistencies across CSO demographic data: census, immigration and emigration, births and deaths.

This evinces poor data governance by and a lack of attention to data quality and an absence of master data management in the CSO. There does not appear to be any consistency or internal cross-checking, let alone cross-checking with external data sources.

It gives the appearance of multiple disconnected business units each focused on particular data sets not consulting one another and with no one taking overall responsibility or ownership.


Notes On Demographics

These are some background notes on demographics that might be useful.

In a closed population, that is, one where there is no immigration and emigration, the number of people at age N in year Y will be less than or equal to the number at age N-1 in year Y-1. The difference will be due solely to deaths. The exception is those aged 0 in year Y which represents births during that year. Put simply, people are only born at age 0 and the number in subsequent years at ages 1 onwards never increases. It always drops for a closed population.

So for a real population, where the number of people at age N in year Y is not less than or equal to the number at age N-1 in year Y-1 that would be expected because of deaths, some external change (net migration) has occurred.

Image

Irish mortality information is available in the Irish Life Tables Number 16 2010-2012 http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica ... 2010-2012/

The CSO has (erroneous) population estimates in the series PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0).

This shows the population details for 2015 and 2016 for males and females:

Code:
                Male        Female      Male        Female      Male        Female      Male        Female      Male    Female
Year                    2015                    2016            Difference              Expected Deaths         Non-Death Difference
Under 1 Year          35,106      32,972      33,867      32,347                                 133         108
1 Year                35,692      33,731      35,490      33,431         384         459          12          23     517     567
2 Years               37,175      35,436      36,004      34,196         312         465           4           3     324     488
3 Years               38,920      37,416      37,428      35,891         253         455           3           2     257     458
4 Years               37,584      36,839      39,106      37,826         186         410           3           2     189     412
5 Years               37,615      36,497      37,724      37,191         140         352           4           3     143     354
6 Years               37,348      36,242      37,716      36,763         101         266           4           3     105     269
7 Years               36,426      35,667      37,412      36,422          64         180           4           2      68     183
8 Years               34,455      33,100      36,467      35,792          41         125           3           2      45     127
9 Years               33,146      31,860      34,495      33,211          40         111           3           2      43     113
10 Years              33,441      31,464      33,199      31,968          53         108           3           2      56     110
11 Years              32,693      31,629      33,497      31,560          56          96           2           2      59      98
12 Years              32,390      31,222      32,738      31,690          45          61           3           2      47      63
13 Years              31,671      30,604      32,392      31,242           2          20           3           3       5      22
14 Years              31,258      29,707      31,621      30,595         -50          -9           5           3     -47      -6
15 Years              30,851      29,472      31,171      29,699         -87          -8           7           4     -82      -5
16 Years              31,125      29,510      30,773      29,516         -78          44          10           5     -71      48
17 Years              30,150      28,503      30,882      29,583        -243          73          13           6    -233      78
18 Years              28,513      26,602      28,344      26,436       -1806       -2067          16           6   -1793   -2061
19 Years              25,413      23,061      26,839      24,904       -1674       -1698          17           6   -1658   -1692
20 Years              23,809      22,040      24,248      22,020       -1165       -1041          19           5   -1148   -1035
21 Years              22,774      21,196      23,140      21,409        -669        -631          20           5    -650    -626
22 Years              23,437      22,161      22,501      20,891        -273        -305          22           5    -253    -300
23 Years              23,720      23,628      23,410      21,931         -27        -230          23           5      -5    -225
24 Years              25,724      25,012      23,897      23,385         177        -243          25           6     200    -238
25 Years              25,709      25,752      26,495      25,460         771         448          24           7     796     454
26 Years              26,526      27,787      26,599      26,290         890         538          23           8     914     545
27 Years              27,955      30,253      27,355      28,244         829         457          22           7     852     465
28 Years              29,752      32,225      28,581      30,665         626         412          23           8     648     419
29 Years              30,639      33,821      30,251      32,505         499         280          24           9     522     288
30 Years              31,663      34,561      31,063      34,115         424         294          26          10     448     303
31 Years              32,442      36,569      31,942      34,856         279         295          28          12     305     305
32 Years              34,513      38,997      32,640      36,714         198         145          31          14     226     157
33 Years              35,979      39,846      34,725      39,110         212         113          34          16     243     127
34 Years              38,225      41,057      36,158      39,841         179          -5          38          18     213      11
35 Years              38,292      40,229      38,352      41,015         127         -42          40          20     165     -24


This is just as example as we know that these CSO population estimates are wrong. The individual year-on-year error is around 17,000 (or possibly much higher).

For example, there were 35,692 males aged 1 in 2015. In 2016 the number of males aged 2 was 36,004. We would have expected 12 deaths in this age group. So, without any migration, the number of males in 2016 aged 2 should have been 35,680. But it was greater than this by 312. This indicates an external increase of around 324.

The Non-Death Difference column in the table above is the difference between the expected number at age N+1 in 2015 based on those at age N in 2015 and the expected deaths.

Any number that is significantly different from zero indicates net immigration or net immigration. It is not possible to determine the individual immigration and immigration of the net difference.

The ages where there in net emigration are 18-22. These may be Irish people going abroad the study or older children of Irish residents returning to their parents’ home country for activities such as study. This is not a property-buying cohort. It is only a small property-demanding cohort since many of them will be living with their parents. Their leaving will not free-up much property.

The components of change in Irish population are:

Image

These are:

A – Births
B – Deaths
C – Immigration from Northern Ireland
D – Emigration to Northern Ireland, either native Irish, previous Northern Irish immigrants or other immigrants
E – Immigration from Great Britain
F – Emigration to Great Britain, either native Irish, previous British immigrants or other immigrants
G – Immigration from the EU
H – Emigration to the EU, either native Irish, previous EU immigrants or other immigrants
I – Immigration from the Rest of the World
J – Emigration to the Rest of the World, either native Irish, previous Rest of the World immigrants or other immigrants

The key to correct population information is knowing these components. Clearly the knowledge that exists about this is doubtful.


Migration Numbers and Numbers of PPSNs Issued

The very large discrepancy between the immigration numbers and the number of PPSNs issued indicate a one or more of a number of problems:

• Undercounted immigration/undercounted population
• Errors by the Department of Social Protection
• PPSN abuse such as the EU Treaty Rights abuse that recently reported – see http://www.independent.ie/business/brex ... 76592.html
• Large volumes of short-term and repeated immigration with no PPSN reuse

In the time series PEA21: Estimated Population by Sex, Nationality and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) which still has the inaccurate 2016 population number of 4,673,700, they estimate that 593,900 are migrants living in Ireland.

Of the extra 84,276 between the 2016 population estimate and actual, almost all will have been migrants. There are very few unrecorded births and deaths. So that is an estimate of 678,176 migrants living in Ireland. That is 14% of the population, according to the CSO.

Migration estimates are contained in PEA03 Estimated Migration by Age Group, Sex, Inward or Outward Flow and Year(http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal ... ssued.aspx). From 2001 to 2016, the CSO estimate that immigration in this interval was 1,188,000. Emigration is estimated as 905,400 giving net migration of 282,100.

This shows the CSO’s estimate of the proportion of immigrants in various age groups:

Image

Not unsurprisingly, most (counted) immigrants are aged 15 – 44.

If you look at the series FNA02: Employment Activity of Foreign Nationals by Broad Nationality Group, Year of Entry and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire ... =0&PXSId=0) which contains details on the PPS numbers issued from 2002 to 2014, the numbers are:

Code:
2002              79,859
2003              72,312
2004             116,207
2005             169,886
2006             202,395
2007             187,761
2008             127,048
2009              62,984
2010              59,310
2011              58,258
2012              64,193
2013              75,812
2014              85,724
Total          1,361,749


So, according to the CSO, immigration from 2001 to 2016 of 1,188,000 but 1,361,749 PPSNs issued in the shorter interval of 2002 to 2014.

Now, there is abuse of PPSNs with one person have more than one PPSN and there are people with PPSNs who are welfare tourists. But you need a PPSN to get pretty much any service:

• Any Social Welfare services
• Any Revenue Schemes including Taxation
• Pupil ID
• HSE services including Medical Card and Drug Payment Schemes
• Child Immunisation
• Housing Grants
• Driver Licenses

So, there are substantial incentives to get a PPSN.

Also, unless you are operating entirely in the black economy you or your employer will look for a valid PPSN.

The Department of Social Protection (DSP) also publish PPSN statistics, less than helpfully in PDF files, one for each year at http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal ... ssued.aspx

When you consolidate the DSP PPSN details with the CSO PPSN and migration data you get:

Code:
       Year    All PPSN    Ireland PPSN    Foreign PPSN DSP    Foreign PPSN CSO    Difference    Immigration
        2016     135,525          56,402              79,123                                          76,200
        2015     169,711          75,008              94,703                                          80,900
        2014     172,463          76,091              96,372              85,724        10,648        81,900
        2013     164,182          78,630              85,552              75,812         9,740        89,000
        2012     154,657          81,331              73,326              64,193         9,133        87,100
        2011     153,050          85,210              67,840              58,258         9,582        80,600
        2010     154,168          85,130              69,038              59,310         9,728        69,200
        2009     165,895          85,909              79,986              62,984        17,002        72,000
        2008     247,431          91,280             156,151             127,048        29,103        49,200
        2007     305,610          87,559             218,051             187,761        30,290        46,300
        2006     311,850          80,788             231,062             202,395        28,667        36,000
        2005     271,202          80,293             190,909             169,886        21,023        29,400
        2004     219,954          86,691             133,263             116,207        17,056        26,500
        2003     191,565          86,947             104,618              72,312        32,306        29,300
        2002     215,536          49,866             165,670              79,859        85,811        25,600
        2001     221,956         109,577             112,379                                          26,200
      Total    3,254,755       1,296,712           1,958,043                           310,089       905,400


So:

• DSP issued 1,958,043 foreign PPSNs from 2001 to Sept 2016.

• CSO estimate immigration (gross and not net) of 905,400 in the same interval

• Even in the interval 2002 to 2014 for which the CSP published foreign PPSN details, there is a difference of 310,089 between the CSO and DSP numbers

That means that the Department of Social Protection issued more than twice the number of PPSNs to non-nationals than the CSO estimate immigrated into Ireland.

It points to possibly much larger numbers of non-national migrants than officially stated in the interval 2001 to 2016.

This is a further view of consolidated information for the years 2006-2016 which matches the interval for the demographic data in the previous section:

Code:
Year           All PPSN    Ireland PPSN    Foreign PPSN DSP    Emigration   Non Irish Immigration       Births
2006             311,850          80,788             231,062        36,000                  88,900       64,237
2007             305,610          87,559             218,051        46,300                 120,400       70,620
2008             247,431          91,280             156,151        49,000                  89,700       75,724
2009             165,895          85,909              79,986        72,000                  50,600       74,928
2010             154,168          85,130              69,038        69,200                  24,000       74,976
2011             153,050          85,210              67,840        80,600                  33,700       74,650
2012             154,657          81,331              73,326        87,100                  32,200       72,225
2013             164,182          78,630              85,552        89,000                  40,300       68,930
2014             172,463          76,091              96,372        81,900                  49,100       67,462
2015             169,711          75,008              94,703        80,900                  57,100       65,909
2016             135,525          56,402              79,123        76,100                  58,300       64,823
Total          2,134,542         883,338           1,251,204       768,100                 644,300      774,484


There were 883,338 PPSNs issued to Irish people and 774,484 births. All new births are assigned PPSNs. The difference can easily be accounted for by factors such as older Irish people, who would not have PPSNs, immigrating,

The CSO estimate non-Irish immigration of 644,300 in this interval. The Department of Social Protection issued 1,251,204 PPSNs to non-Irish people in the same interval. That is a very substantial and unexplained difference of 606,904. This difference is just too large to be left unexplained and unquestioned.

EU nationals living in Ireland with children living elsewhere in the EU are entitled to Children’s Allowance. But, as far as I believe, these children do not get assigned a PPSN. Maybe someone who knows more can provide more information on this. The number of such children being paid Children’s Allowance is low and much lower than 606,904.

That is a potentially a lot of extra people looking for accommodation, rental or otherwise, driving demand and cost.

It is also a lot of inconsistency and lack of certainty.


Widening The Data Net

The data net can be widened to attempt to answer the question and to cross-check the reliability of the CSO’s population data.

Population-related information can be obtained from other sources such as the Revenue Commissioners – details on the numbers of income tax payers – and the Department of Education from which details on number of students in education are available.

This shows the population estimates from the CSO series PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0). I have extracted the population estimates for ages 18 to 66. The data series contains the erroneous population estimate. The 2014 Adj column contains the 2014 adjusted to take account of the difference between the 2016 population estimate and 2014 census number of 84,276.

Code:
                    2011      2012      2013      2014 2014 Adj       2015      2016   2016 Adj
18 Years          56,290    52,397    51,990    51,884    52,785    55,115    54,781      56,366
19 Years          56,953    52,745    48,733    48,508    49,350    48,474    51,742      53,239
20 Years          59,462    53,592    49,453    45,942    46,740    45,849    46,268      47,607
21 Years          57,951    56,257    50,509    47,063    47,880    43,970    44,549      45,838
22 Years          57,957    54,958    53,228    48,512    49,354    45,598    43,391      44,646
23 Years          60,287    55,110    52,315    51,555    52,450    47,348    45,341      46,653
24 Years          62,914    57,828    53,261    51,190    52,079    50,736    47,282      48,650
25 Years          65,838    61,741    57,120    53,783    54,717    51,461    51,954      53,457
26 Years          68,617    65,145    61,437    57,870    58,875    54,313    52,889      54,419
27 Years          72,127    67,768    64,652    62,020    63,097    58,208    55,599      57,208
28 Years          76,965    70,937    66,914    64,775    65,900    61,977    59,246      60,960
29 Years          79,330    75,604    69,843    66,577    67,733    64,460    62,756      64,572
30 Years          82,618    78,011    74,465    69,373    70,578    66,224    65,177      67,063
31 Years          81,744    81,334    76,844    73,923    75,207    69,011    66,798      68,731
32 Years          78,585    80,468    80,172    76,204    77,527    73,510    69,354      71,360
33 Years          75,824    77,509    79,436    79,656    81,039    75,825    73,835      75,971
34 Years          74,596    74,955    76,549    78,907    80,277    79,282    75,998      78,197
35 Years          74,026    73,873    74,124    76,063    77,384    78,521    79,367      81,663
36 Years          73,757    73,351    73,167    73,549    74,826    75,627    78,444      80,713
37 Years          72,332    73,226    72,709    72,658    73,920    73,170    75,554      77,740
38 Years          72,374    71,855    72,574    72,179    73,432    72,313    73,082      75,196
39 Years          70,600    72,024    71,244    72,128    73,380    71,906    72,254      74,344
40 Years          70,073    70,303    71,541    70,831    72,061    71,914    71,847      73,926
41 Years          68,196    69,770    69,909    71,131    72,366    70,643    71,814      73,892
42 Years          64,449    67,891    69,499    69,536    70,743    70,969    70,595      72,637
43 Years          63,813    64,126    67,740    69,125    70,325    69,336    70,903      72,954
44 Years          62,803    63,569    64,102    67,439    68,610    68,964    69,321      71,327
45 Years          62,449    62,691    63,624    64,009    65,120    67,375    69,059      71,057
46 Years          62,929    62,342    62,720    63,579    64,683    63,964    67,430      69,381
47 Years          61,159    62,773    62,310    62,647    63,735    63,511    63,974      65,825
48 Years          59,593    60,952    62,642    62,181    63,261    62,553    63,436      65,271
49 Years          57,980    59,380    60,827    62,483    63,568    62,047    62,421      64,227
50 Years          58,356    57,750    59,227    60,616    61,668    62,299    61,877      63,667
51 Years          56,005    58,091    57,502    58,987    60,011    60,398    62,129      63,926
52 Years          53,899    55,746    57,756    57,272    58,266    58,738    60,212      61,954
53 Years          53,311    53,629    55,357    57,568    58,568    57,019    58,572      60,267
54 Years          52,166    53,000    53,239    55,163    56,121    57,320    56,818      58,462
55 Years          50,538    51,855    52,632    53,008    53,928    54,910    57,073      58,724
56 Years          50,244    50,188    51,508    52,347    53,256    52,784    54,683      56,265
57 Years          48,223    49,935    49,890    51,179    52,068    52,075    52,547      54,067
58 Years          48,427    47,883    49,598    49,503    50,363    50,889    51,802      53,301
59 Years          45,948    48,111    47,520    49,234    50,089    49,200    50,587      52,051
60 Years          45,096    45,615    47,725    47,148    47,967    48,928    48,899      50,314
61 Years          44,384    44,734    45,266    47,374    48,197    46,760    48,601      50,007
62 Years          43,719    43,977    44,369    44,896    45,676    46,964    46,421      47,764
63 Years          42,832    43,279    43,494    43,949    44,712    44,492    46,583      47,931
64 Years          41,073    42,359    42,787    43,050    43,797    43,512    44,124      45,401
65 Years          39,558    40,629    41,877    42,330    43,065    42,712    43,197      44,447
66 Years          36,249    39,144    40,167    41,401    42,120    41,976    42,391      43,617
Total          2,976,630 2,952,422 2,927,580 2,914,319 2,962,871 2,907,165 2,914,993   2,997,255


I have selected 2014 because it is the latest year for which the Revenue Commissioners published income tax statistics.

I have selected population numbers aged from 18 to 66 because this group will either be counted as:

1. In employment and registered with the Revenue Commissioners
2. Unemployed and in receipt of some form of allowance or benefit and counted by the Department of Social Protection
3. In third-level education and counted by the Department of Education
4. In second-level education and counted by the Department of Education
5. Not counted in categories 1 to 5
6. Counted in two or more of these categories

and so can be cross-checked with data from the Revenue Commissioners, Department of Education and Department of Social Protection.

There will be errors and double-counting in this data:

• Category 1 will include some people younger than 18 and older than 66.

• Category 2 will also double-count those who are illegally claiming two (or more) forms of unemployment allowance or benefit.

• Category 3 will include students under 18 that are in third-level education

• Category 4 will be small and as the Department of Education do not provide ages of second-level students this number cannot be assessed. I have not attempted to estimate the numbers of second-level students that are 18 (or older).

• Category 5 consists of are people operating entirely in the black market with no engagement with either the Revenue Commissioners or the Department of Social Protection.

• The number in category 6 will include values such as students who are working and those who are working and illegally claiming some form of unemployment allowance or benefit.

The equality between CSO population data and that from the other data sources looks like:

Image

Subject to the errors listed above, the two numbers should be roughly equal.

The intention here is not to produce population estimates that are completely accurate. It is, rather, an attempt to assess the accuracy of the CSO population data using consistency cross-checks from other data sources.

The Revenue Commissioners publish details on income tax payers. The latest year for which this this is available is 2014 – see http://www.revenue.ie/en/about/statisti ... x-2014.xls referenced on the page http://www.revenue.ie/en/about/statisti ... e-tax.html.

Code:
Classification                        Cases        People
Single Males                         657,628
Single Females                       614,482
Married Couples - Both Earning       477,603       955,206
Married Couples - One Earning        386,230       772,460
Widowers                              24,639
Widows                                63,466
Total                              2,224,048     3,087,881


According to the Revenue Commissioners, the income earners who are categorised as “Married Couples - Both Earning” or “Married Couples - One Earning” are those who have chosen or have been deemed to have chosen for joint assessment as one tax unit. So each of the 477,603 cases classified as “Married Couples - Both Earning” represents two people.

As the Revenue Commissioners data is from 2014, I will use other data from 2014 as well to provide a uniform view.

Education statistics are available from http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/pssn/de ... atbank.asp

Series EDA03 Students from Ireland and Northern Ireland Enrolled in Third Level Institutions by County of Origin, Year and Type of Institution (http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0) contains the following:

Code:
County               Number
Carlow                 2,018
Dublin                37,954
Kildare                6,770
Kilkenny               3,325
Laois                  2,253
Longford               1,344
Louth                  4,037
Meath                  5,958
Offaly                 2,408
Westmeath              3,079
Wexford                4,612
Wicklow                4,486
Clare                  4,592
Cork                  18,803
Kerry                  5,668
Limerick               7,288
Tipperary              5,684
Waterford              4,562
Galway                10,105
Leitrim                1,145
Mayo                   5,058
Roscommon              2,373
Sligo                  2,611
Cavan                  2,252
Donegal                4,951
Monaghan               2,067
Total                155,403


In 2014 there were 155,403 students in Ireland in third-level accommodation. I have assumed that these students are over 18. There will be some third-level students that are under 18. There will also be some second-level students that are 18 and so are not included here.

The Department of Social Protection’s live register statistics are available from https://www.welfare.ie/en/downloads/Sta ... ister.xlsx.

Worksheet “Ave LR Hist DONE” contains the Live Register details

Code:
Year                                2014
Jobseeker's Allowance            294,375
Jobseeker's Benefit               53,841
Credited Contributions            35,563
Average Live Register            383,779


So, merging these four sets of data, you get:

Code:
Revenue Commissioners Income Tax Payers 2014       3,087,881
Third Level Education Full Time 2014                 155,403
Live Register Average Over 2014                      383,779
Total For 2014                                     3,627,063
Adjusted 2014 Population                           2,962,871
Difference                                           664,192


The difference in 2014 from population estimates for those aged 18-66 from the CSO and other sources of 664,192 will include the errors listed above.

It is still a large difference.

The arithmetic should be along the lines of:

Image


So, How Many People Actually Live In Ireland?

I have no idea. But I strongly believe that it is higher than the number the CSO counted in the 2016 census. For someone with an affinity to numbers, this is both contra-intuitive and disquieting. It could be several hundred thousand more. I do not believe it is 600,000 more or anything like that number.

It is a bit of a mess.

I am sure that I have made errors in this analysis. It was done briefly. Please highlight them.

This analysis has two purposes:

1. A primary one of identifying issues with Irish population statistics and to show that there are real problems

2. A secondary one of attempting to quantify the actual population

I feel that I have achieved both objectives, albeit the secondary one with some major warnings.

There are still unanswered questions, such as:

• How and why could or would people evade being counted in the census?

• What benefit is there of such concealment?

• How could the CSO’s census big count contain such errors and what is the extent of the errors, if any?

• Why is there such a large difference between numbers of PPSNs issued by the Department of Social Protection and immigration as counted by the CSO?

These are valid questions to which I do not have answers. I would welcome comments.

This analysis demonstrates a lack of knowledge and control by Irish governments on population and immigration who do not know what is happening and by those agencies tasked with doing this work.

What Are the likely Impacts And Consequences?


There are several sets of possible impacts and consequences relating to resource requirements in areas such as accommodation, transport, health care, legal and justice as well as wider social, societal, political, cultural and economic ones.

In the specific context of property which is the nominal concern of this board, this indicates that demand is being underestimated and supply is even worse than believed. It is possible that a large number of immigrants may leave and so reduce demand for property due, for example, to a combined Brexit/Trump recession and loss of employment. However, unquantified past immigration likely means unquantified future immigration. So the trend for property demand and prices is up.

Knowledge is power and we are powerless.

It may be unfashionable to be seen to question the number of migrants in Ireland. Accusations of xenophobia are all too easily levelled and are just attempts to deflect a valid concern. Like it or not, there are large and popular anti-migrant political parties and social movements throughout Europe and elsewhere that have risen organically because concerns are left unaddressed by established political parties. Wishful thinking is no substitute for analysis. Ignoring a problem will not make it go away. They have already caused seismic changes. Ireland would appear to offer a potential fertile ground for such a party or movement.

Elsewhere I have expressed by view that too much change imposed on a society too quickly causes problems and gives rise to dissent.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:53 pm 
Offline
Neo Landlord

Joined: Nov 30, 2011
Posts: 279
Wow !


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:04 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3530
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
Did ye create the thread cos of my post? :)
And is there a summary paragraph..


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:19 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Dec 28, 2006
Posts: 5579
I've long suspected that an audit of every house in the country would be self-financing just through the discovery of tax avoiding landlords and that would be reason enough to investigate officially also ya know...tax avoiding slumlords...boo hiss where as witch hunt for poor illegal immigrants; that is a much harder sell politically.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:28 pm 
Offline
Property Magnate

Joined: Oct 11, 2012
Posts: 706
Thanks CP, great work. In almost all European countries, citizens have to register with their local authorities to avail of a range of services. This also means the authorities can calculate and levy charges accurately, and with high levels of compliance. That of course doesn't happen in Ireland. The electoral register, similarly, is a complete joke/mess. Your point about the lack of planning in Ireland to make provision for future demographic change is also well taken.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:23 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Nov 4, 2011
Posts: 5960
Location: SthDub
Great work as usual CP.
So if the official non national population is 14% at 678k, and from looking at the discrepancies shown by your figures there's another max 600k (which you think is too high), we're looking at anything from the 14% official figure to a possible 28% of the population being non-national.

I've said it on several threads before- how was it possible to have a housig crisis in Dublin at the same time as the CSO were teling us Irish people were emmigrating in big numbers due to the crash. We recently had the media (when Justin Barrett came out with that new political party before xmas) proclaiming that net migration of non-nationals was near break even over the past 10 or so years.
So how is it possible that Dublin in particular went into a housing crisis from 2010/2012 to now??? Its never made sense to me except that net immigration is way way higher than is being offically acknowledged. I know what I see with my own eyes from working in the city, from my commute each day, from the houses in my neighbourhood tha I'm familiar with.... but to outline sentiments such as this is somehow deemed racist.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:31 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 13, 2008
Posts: 11764
Location: Somewhere up in the hills
Policy. It didn't happen accidentally.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:31 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Dec 28, 2006
Posts: 5579
It isn't just those that are working. My Russian friend can't bring her granny to Germany unless they prove the Granny won't be a burden on the state and has health insurance. with no controls in Ireland anyone can present themselves.
It isn't even a double-standard in Germany as the locals have to pay their own health insurance be it public or private.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:34 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail
User avatar

Joined: May 6, 2008
Posts: 4675
Location: the nearest faraway place
Well it doesn't help that a lot of the emigration of 20-30 year olds were on working holiday Visas. Last year work visas for Irish citizens to Australia were a third of the 2012 number.

_________________
Every single frozen corpse in the Death Zone on Everest was once a highly motivated person.

Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do study history are doomed to watch everyone else repeating it.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:36 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Apr 4, 2010
Posts: 4697
Chicken Parmentier wrote:
In a closed population, that is, one where there is no immigration and emigration, the number of people at age N in year Y will be less than or equal to the number at age N-1 in year Y-1. The difference will be due solely to deaths. The exception is those aged 0 in year Y which represents births during that year. Put simply, people are only born at age 0 and the number in subsequent years at ages 1 onwards never increases. It always drops for a closed population.


Those under the age of 1 are not a problem. We can simply cook them and eat them. Image

On a more serious note. I'm impressed with the analysis you put into this. I only wish the authorities would think about things half as much. :D

_________________
People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.


Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
Book I, Chapter X, Part II,


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:15 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation
User avatar

Joined: Oct 20, 2010
Posts: 2209
dipole wrote:
It isn't just those that are working. My Russian friend can't bring her granny to Germany unless they prove the Granny won't be a burden on the state and has health insurance. with no controls in Ireland anyone can present themselves.
It isn't even a double-standard in Germany as the locals have to pay their own health insurance be it public or private.

If your Russian friend lived in Ireland she would have to demonstrate to the Irish authorities that Granny won't be a burden on the state too when applying for a visa to come here so I don't see what your point is?

_________________
banana republic, septic isle


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:32 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance
User avatar

Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 5159
The official Census 2016 count comes put in April, but it won't be too far off the preliminary figure we got in July 2016

Re PPSNs, someone once told me everyone who does any work in Ireland must have a PPSN, even if it is for one day like performing a concert, so numbers there won't equate to population...


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:36 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
Location: To the right of the decimal place
TheJackal wrote:
The official Census 2016 count comes put in April, but it won't be too far off the preliminary figure we got in July 2016

Re PPSNs, someone once told me everyone who does any work in Ireland must have a PPSN, even if it is for one day like performing a concert, so numbers there won't equate to population...


Not only people working in Ireland, but also people working outside the State for an Irish employer. For example if you're an Irish company and you employ someone in Germany directly, they must have an Irish non-resident PPSN (as well as a German tax ID).

Edit to say -- the number of PPSNs issued is probably not so interesting, for the reason you suggested. What we really need is the number of distinct PPSNs presented in a year, but I would be fairly certain that this data doesn't exist across departments. Revenue would have it for the number of tax-paying units, but presumably not correlated with school admissions, social welfare, etc.

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Last edited by Mantissa on Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:40 am 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Dec 28, 2006
Posts: 5579
JohnnyTheFox wrote:
dipole wrote:
It isn't just those that are working. My Russian friend can't bring her granny to Germany unless they prove the Granny won't be a burden on the state and has health insurance. with no controls in Ireland anyone can present themselves.
It isn't even a double-standard in Germany as the locals have to pay their own health insurance be it public or private.

If your Russian friend lived in Ireland she would have to demonstrate to the Irish authorities that Granny won't be a burden on the state too when applying for a visa to come here so I don't see what your point is?

Would she be expected to pay over 10k a year on health insurance although in good health in Ireland? Is that enough of a point for you?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:09 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 13, 2008
Posts: 11764
Location: Somewhere up in the hills
So how many people live in Ireland?

ChickenP wrote:
I have no idea. But I strongly believe that it is higher than the number the CSO counted in the 2016 census.


That was quite a lot of effort to reach that conclusion.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 38 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Click for Latest Posts LATEST POSTS Click for Forum List FORUMS   

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster

  

Pyramid Built, Is Better Built!