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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:33 pm 
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dipole wrote:
short term visits count for nothing in a country which has no means of tracking the people, rounding them up and expelling them if they overstaying.
You have added nothing to the discussion which shows me to be ill-informed and frankly it is like listening to Brian Lenihan who would have had you believe there was no crisis of any description at any time ever related to any topic for which he was responsible
The fact of the matter is that Ireland has no immigration control to speak of. Previously on this forum I've shared accounts of illegal immigrant Brazilian language course students and Russians buying Polish passports then doctoring them, me myself driving off the Ferry in Dublin port unchallenged, 50% foreign social housing waiting lists, etc... and you'd like me to believe that there is a functioning immigration control system in place in Ireland.
So what does this all mean in practice?
If my Russian friend were resident in Ireland she'd bring her Granny in on a holiday visa and then Granny would disappear. In Germany she wouldn't dare for fear of the very real consequences.
Do you get the point? That's the point. That's what CP's opening post is the springboard for discussion. No policing. No controls. No measurable metrics.


I can agree with a lot of that. I've never once been checked on the ferry arriving in the UK or back in Ireland. Which stung the first time when we'd gone through the absolute 'pain in the hole' process of getting a UK visitors visa for one of our passengers. But I don't know why you chose to hang it on the fact that Germany has a a €10k health insurance requirement for elderly relatives; first doubting that Ireland has a health insurance requirement, then making an unsupported claim that our health insurance requirement is not enforced. All of this inviting people to believe you considered Ireland's position on allowing in documented elderly relatives on long term visas to be lax.

If you think the real issue is that we don't track departures to control overstays then why not just say so instead of going down the Russian Granny path and bullheadedly continuing even when it was clear it was a cul de sac?

In any case, I think the overstay route works for younger people but isn't so useful for bringing in older parents or grandparents. It might be fine for a while but sooner or later their health deteriorates and they are stuck without a PPS number when trying to access care. For younger people that's something a long way off so they are ready to take the risk.

On that note, presumably there is very little overlap between those who have overstayed visas to work illegally and the "50% foreign social housing waiting lists"? To get on the housing list they will either have to be here legally or have gone to much deeper into the realms of criminality (stolen passports, assumed IDs etc.) than just not leaving before their visa expired.

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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:37 pm 
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FreeFallin wrote:
On bringing in relatives

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics ... -1.2346948
Quote:
However, the overall number of refugees could rise to approximately 20,000 over the coming years as family members of each person with refugee status are entitled to arrive in Ireland under family reunification rules.
The average number of family members per refugee has been in excess of four in past programmes.
Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton said when family reunification was factored in the total number of refugees and migrants coming to Ireland would be “somewhat higher” than the 4,000.

The distinction being that this entitlement only applies to spouses and kids. There is no entitlement to bring in ageing parents, and there isn't even a mechanism for bringing in grandparents.

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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:51 pm 
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What is the implication of the numbers being wrong? Other than showing general government disorganisation? Are other countries better at counting their population?

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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:08 pm 
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Census 2011 showed a massive THIRTY-FOUR people over-65 self-identifying as Russians in Ireland.

Census 2011 showed a full ONE person who was non-Irish, over 65 and had had their usual place of residence in the Russian Federation one year previously.


Massive migration of elderly Russians to Ireland is not a thing folks.

Browse for yourselves: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0


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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:13 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Census 2011 showed a massive THIRTY-FOUR people over-65 self-identifying as Russians in Ireland.

Census 2011 showed a full ONE person who was non-Irish, over 65 and had had their usual place of residence in the Russian Federation one year previously.


Massive migration of elderly Russians to Ireland is not a thing folks.

Browse for yourselves: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0


but uncontrolled migration is and as said if I was bringing a granny or grandad to Ireland I'd just let them disappear from a short visit with no state body checking to see what became of them.


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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:14 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
What is the implication of the numbers being wrong? Other than showing general government disorganisation? Are other countries better at counting their population?


No.

Births and deaths are very easy to keep track of. The balance is migration.

There are three ways of measuring migration:
1) Counting at ports and airports
2) Registration with local authorities
3) Periodic census


All of these have their drawbacks.

1) would be impossible due to the size of the gross flows meaning tiny errors are magnified, land border with Northern Ireland etc. This process only really works for extremely isolated islands.

2) has its advantages and is the approach on much of the continent. But it depends on strict compliance with the law, which is very difficult to enforce. Bulgaria and Romania are said to have millions of people still registered there but actually working in Western Europe. So even within Europe there is probably a level of double counting which is very difficult to resolve. Everywhere, temporary migrants (whether illegal or not) may not bother unless they need to interact with the tax system. I lived and worked in Spain many years ago without ever registering.

3) is what is used in Ireland. Again, certain transitory migant-type households will probably be undercounted. Many may see a Census enumerator as part of a state apparatus out to detect illegal immigrants (even though it is not). Despite this, the Census picks up a wide array of nationalities and religions that you would not expect to find if certain migrant groups were systematically dodging the enumerators. Unfortunately the Census is not frequent enough for a population as dynamic as Ireland's though.



Turning to CP's post, she is correct in identifying that the CSO's population and labour force projection for 2016 is out of sync with the (preliminary) Census 2016 result. The CSO dramatically underestimated the the intra-censal migration estimates (predicted correctly here viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66204). The issue is that the CSO cannot re-calculate these until they have detailed Census results which take a long time to process. , Pretty much the only thing that is ready is the headcount data. The CSO are not wrong (per se) but just not publicising the discrepancy very well.

The other main fallacy in CP's post is the red herring of PPS numbers. There are several reasons you can get a PPS number without working or even living in Ireland (for example to get an Irish inheritance, open a bank account or to purchase property). As for employment, consider the case of a company employing four non-Irish staff on three-month contracts one after the other. Only one of them will be counted in the Census but all four of them will get a PPS number. So sure, PPS numbers provide a rough idea on how migration is progressing but would be very difficult to use them to make any kind of precise estimate.


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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:18 pm 
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dipole wrote:
Skippy 3 wrote:


Massive migration of elderly Russians to Ireland is not a thing folks.

Browse for yourselves: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire ... Language=0


but uncontrolled migration is and as said if I was bringing a granny or grandad to Ireland I'd just let them disappear from a short visit with no state body checking to see what became of them.


Ireland runs a liberal immigration regime but it is not uncontrolled.

Keeping an elderly relative in Ireland covertly might work for a while. You could pay for GP visits and the odd hospital emergency visit would go under the radar. But after a while you would rub up against serious problems trying to access long-term hospital or nursing care without legal status.


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 Post subject: Re: So, Just How Many People Live In Ireland?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:22 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
Ireland runs a liberal immigration regime but it is not uncontrolled.

Would you have us believe they are in control of this, have the tools to measure immigration and the ability to correct or guide immigration policies in the future should the need arise.
Ireland runs a policy of no particular policy on immigration.


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