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 Post subject: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:28 pm 
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Single Home Owner

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In fairness, I could be missing it but I am mystified as to why there aren't threads about the lunacy of the Dublin market.

Are we back to 2006 again? Where is this all going to end up. Are we looking at a bubble?


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:58 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

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Well, the CSO index is back to where it was in 2005 or so, so possibly getting there...


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:18 pm 
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An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example

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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:43 pm 
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EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example

Not sure but I was thinking recently (there was a thread on it) the person who paid 400k is probably still just about in negative equity if the loan was for 35/40 years. However a person taking out the same current [remaining] mortgage will be paying more than the first person if he has a half decent tracker. And the second person has still had to pay rent in the meantime


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:56 pm 
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slasher wrote:
EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example

Not sure but I was thinking recently (there was a thread on it) the person who paid 400k is probably still just about in negative equity if the loan was for 35/40 years. However a person taking out the same current [remaining] mortgage will be paying more than the first person if he has a half decent tracker. And the second person has still had to pay rent in the meantime


Every case will be different ..I guess my question is more the time value of money ...what number today is the same value as 400k in 2006?

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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:00 pm 
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Glasnevinuser wrote:
In fairness, I could be missing it but I am mystified as to why there aren't threads about the lunacy of the Dublin market.

Are we back to 2006 again? Where is this all going to end up. Are we looking at a bubble?

Property prices in Dublin are crazy
There hasnt been a house built outside of commuter areas in 10 years and little demand so at least that is one good thing

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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:21 pm 
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EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example


Random online calculator says 474k based on eurostat inflation data. I'd say most of that is in the first few years; not much inflation lately.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:53 pm 
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Worstpigeon wrote:
EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example


Random online calculator says 474k based on eurostat inflation data. I'd say most of that is in the first few years; not much inflation lately.


Maybe it's just me but that seems to be missing from most comparisons of today's prices vs boom peak.

So we roughly 30%; off peak plus another percentage to allow for the fact that the value of money has moved on.

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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:40 pm 
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Joined: Apr 16, 2009
Posts: 143
Glasnevinuser wrote:
In fairness, I could be missing it but I am mystified as to why there aren't threads about the lunacy of the Dublin market.

Are we back to 2006 again? Where is this all going to end up. Are we looking at a bubble?


+1. Its crazy out there at the moment.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:00 am 
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Location: Delta Quadrant
Dublin is different. The fundamentals are sound.

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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:45 am 
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Ronan Lyons this morning said we'll be back at 2007 prices in 3 to 4 years in Dublin at current growth rates...party on


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:51 am 
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slasher wrote:
EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example

Not sure but I was thinking recently (there was a thread on it) the person who paid 400k is probably still just about in negative equity if the loan was for 35/40 years. However a person taking out the same current [remaining] mortgage will be paying more than the first person if he has a half decent tracker. And the second person has still had to pay rent in the meantime


This was the thread

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=62310


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:58 am 
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Joined: Mar 4, 2009
Posts: 1533
I have been considering trading up in Dublin and have looked at a few properties lately. Suffice to say the trading up market is baloobas. Houses that look reasonably good value are subject to bidding wars that seem to be going on for an age and which are resulting in huge increases over asking. If I get more serious, I will be inclined to look at houses that are overpriced or have obvious flaws to see if they can be got for close to the asking price. I will not deal with agents for weeks on end while they get more uppity by the day.


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:04 am 
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Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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Location: London, innit
EuroTom wrote:
slasher wrote:
EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example

Not sure but I was thinking recently (there was a thread on it) the person who paid 400k is probably still just about in negative equity if the loan was for 35/40 years. However a person taking out the same current [remaining] mortgage will be paying more than the first person if he has a half decent tracker. And the second person has still had to pay rent in the meantime


Every case will be different ..I guess my question is more the time value of money ...what number today is the same value as 400k in 2006?



the time value of money is more relevant for the deposit - if you've borrowed it, it's kind of moot?


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 Post subject: Re: Is it 2006 again?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:14 am 
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Joined: Jan 31, 2007
Posts: 343
Location: Middle Earth
Worstpigeon wrote:
EuroTom wrote:
An aside but kinda related question ..if one paid 400k for a house back in 2006 what would I need to sell it at this year to breakeven in real terms ..given the ups and downs of inflation over the last 11yrs? ...ps ..purely hypothetical example


Random online calculator says 474k based on eurostat inflation data. I'd say most of that is in the first few years; not much inflation lately.


But what about cost of finance and maintenance on the property, i.e. 474k breaks even if you put 400k in the bank and made net 74k interest?


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