metalmike wrote:
Comparing sales of new houses in the PPR with the figures there is a pretty good correlation, particularly if you allow for the time lag between completion and sale. The interesting thing is whether we see that 14.4k figure from 2017 come through this year. There were 1960 new homes sold in Q1 (and I think it's fair to assume that all the figures are in for Q1) compared to 1594 in Q1 last year - that's only a 20% increase compared to the increase of about 50% in the CSO figures. If you extrapolate to the year (assuming the same pattern of new sales) 9110/1594 * 1960 is 11201 or 23% more. It will be interesting to see how this goes.
Code:
Sales From PPR CSO Completions
2013 3639 4575
2014 5286 5618
2015 6098 7219
2016 6665 9915
2017 9110 14446
2018* 3442 N/A
2018** 1960 3526
* Year so far
** Q1
Just updating this table with the latest figures from PPR/CSO
Code:
Sales From PPR CSO Completions
2013 3639 4575
2014 5286 5618
2015 6098 7219
2016 6665 9915
2017 9110 14446
2018* 10194 N/A
2018** 7195 12582
* Year so far
** Q1-Q3
Which suggests a lot of unsold houses although the figures suggest a speed up in sales in the last Quarter - not sure if that's normal. Still waiting to see confirmation in the PPR of a rumour that I heard before Christmas that there were an awful lot of sales closed in Dublin in December (there are about 1500 so far and there were over 2000 last December) - although December figures seem to take longer to come through.
