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 Post subject: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:20 pm 
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It would seem that

1. Based on a 25% takeup within 3 years
2. 45% takeup within 10 years
3. 60% takeup at peak, 15-20 years hence.

The National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2.5bn in taxpayer subsidies by the time the contract expires in 25 or 30 years time.

At least these are the numbers shared with me today. Of the €2.5bn a full €1.1bn will be payable by 2022 and the rest as 'availability payments' over the lifetime of the contract. You could therefore argue that €1.1bn will be capital expenditure and €1.4bn will be current expenditure over 20 years. The current expenditure is frontloaded into the 2020s too.

Lest anyone query the takeup, the existing eir rural fibre rollout which focuses on more affluent rural areas and which now passes around 200,000 premises has a takeup of around 20% and a blended availability of 1 year (IE the average premises passed by this network has been able to order for a nominal year, some for longer and some more recently).

In my area it is around 30% takeup but you cannot order it off Vodafone or Sky who have a lot of the home broadband market nowadays and I do have 4g or 3g options from all mobile providers where I am. Many households will stay with mobile because it is very cheap, even if it is basically unusable in the evening and weekends when the students are home. :)

I personally don't think the state should commit to anything other than the €1.1bn build cost out to 2022 and after that Denis O'Brien and his mates in the bidding consortium had better carry their own risk if they are in any way competent at all. :(

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:20 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
In my area it is around 30% takeup but you cannot order it off Vodafone or Sky who have a lot of the home broadband market nowadays and I do have 4g or 3g options from all mobile providers where I am. Many households will stay with mobile because it is very cheap, even if it is basically unusable in the evening and weekends when the students are home. :)(
Sky are currently testing on the Eir FTTH network and look to be about to offer it.

2Pack wrote:
I personally don't think the state should commit to anything other than the €1.1bn build cost out to 2022 and after that Denis O'Brien and his mates in the bidding consortium had better carry their own risk if they are in any way competent at all. :(
Actavo is just one sub-contractor which will carry out the work for the winning bidder, National Broadband Ireland. Actavo has no equity in the bid.


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:46 am 
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a quick spot of inflation and now over €3bn

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... 3?mode=amp

Quote:
There are growing fears at the highest level of Government about the escalating costs of the National Broadband Plan, now estimated at some €3 billion, and officials are working on “plan B” in case the entire process collapses, The Irish Times has learned.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:32 am 
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How far away is the technology to get decent and reliable broadband from the sky or via masts? Are we about to invest billions in a system that will be redundant in less than 10 years?
Any techie heads here able to clarify?


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:29 am 
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FreeFallin wrote:
How far away is the technology to get decent and reliable broadband from the sky or via masts? Are we about to invest billions in a system that will be redundant in less than 10 years?
Any techie heads here able to clarify?


Fibre is the future, wireless is the needed infill for when you are out and about, the sky (or satellite) is pure snakeoil.

Fibre can never be obsolete as it can be upgraded by swapping the optics at each end pretty much ad infinitum. Spectrum will always be limited and spectrum expansion in recent years has mainly been about robbing TV spectrum off RTE.

The fastest fibres actually deployed in Ireland today carry 13 Terabits, that is 13,000 Gigabits, each.

A single fibre has more capacity, now and using cheap optical gear, than the largest satellite ever built to supply broadband. The choice in the short medium and long term is fibre, fibre or fibre. If your mobile mast does not have fibre (that is most of them in Ireland today) then it congests brutally every evening and especially if you are a customer of 3 who overload their network to a crazy degree.

4G cannot handle congestion issues, 5G is pure snakeoil with all sorts of BS claims being made. :)

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:21 am 
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But after 5G, there will be 6G in 5 or so years. And on and on.
Surely the technology will advance to give decent broadband through the air?


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:22 am 
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"Donutting" the population centers. How is/was that allowed?


How it's done in the UK...

The farmer who built her own broadband
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37974267

IMHO we need a proper broadband strategy and rules to allow that to happen. Forget about the "plan", Gov should use this rule book + carrot/stick.


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:34 am 
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the technology is there for fiber broadband, its been around and tested for before those of us under-45 have been born.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:52 am 
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2Pack wrote:
If your mobile mast does not have fibre (that is most of them in Ireland today) then it congests brutally every evening and especially if you are a customer of 3 who overload their network to a crazy degree.

4G cannot handle congestion issues, 5G is pure snakeoil with all sorts of BS claims being made. :)

But most of the arguing about rural broadband is in areas where there won't be any congestion because the population density is so low.

That said, I don't really understand how it's economic to deliver a mains electricity connection (dangerous high voltage) but not a simple data fibre. And on that subject, I have an ESB cable running over my back garden on poles, and next year they're going to sling a fibre along it too. Presumably part of the issue here is that investment by small broadband providers isn't going to happen when they're operating in the kill zone of the likes of ESB.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:00 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
2Pack wrote:
If your mobile mast does not have fibre (that is most of them in Ireland today) then it congests brutally every evening and especially if you are a customer of 3 who overload their network to a crazy degree.

4G cannot handle congestion issues, 5G is pure snakeoil with all sorts of BS claims being made. :)

But most of the arguing about rural broadband is in areas where there won't be any congestion because the population density is so low.


A misconception. Of the 540,000 premises in the National Broadband plan the majority are in or very near an urban or semi urban area and less than half are in sticksville.

In County Dublin alone, there are 10,022 premises deemed to be 'so rural' that they are included in the National Broadband Plan. My brother, who lives inside the Galway City Boundary, is in the National Broadband plan and he can see a fibre on a pole outside when he stands at his front door.

Rural County Dublin is far too densely populated for any wireless solution...plus it is very flat in parts and some cunt went and planted a line of trees in the way. :)

Quote:
That said, I don't really understand how it's economic to deliver a mains electricity connection (dangerous high voltage) but not a simple data fibre. And on that subject, I have an ESB cable running over my back garden on poles, and next year they're going to sling a fibre along it too.


But they are not going to give you the option of obtaining a fibre based service from that fibre.

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