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 Post subject: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:20 pm 
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It would seem that

1. Based on a 25% takeup within 3 years
2. 45% takeup within 10 years
3. 60% takeup at peak, 15-20 years hence.

The National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2.5bn in taxpayer subsidies by the time the contract expires in 25 or 30 years time.

At least these are the numbers shared with me today. Of the €2.5bn a full €1.1bn will be payable by 2022 and the rest as 'availability payments' over the lifetime of the contract. You could therefore argue that €1.1bn will be capital expenditure and €1.4bn will be current expenditure over 20 years. The current expenditure is frontloaded into the 2020s too.

Lest anyone query the takeup, the existing eir rural fibre rollout which focuses on more affluent rural areas and which now passes around 200,000 premises has a takeup of around 20% and a blended availability of 1 year (IE the average premises passed by this network has been able to order for a nominal year, some for longer and some more recently).

In my area it is around 30% takeup but you cannot order it off Vodafone or Sky who have a lot of the home broadband market nowadays and I do have 4g or 3g options from all mobile providers where I am. Many households will stay with mobile because it is very cheap, even if it is basically unusable in the evening and weekends when the students are home. :)

I personally don't think the state should commit to anything other than the €1.1bn build cost out to 2022 and after that Denis O'Brien and his mates in the bidding consortium had better carry their own risk if they are in any way competent at all. :(

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:20 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
In my area it is around 30% takeup but you cannot order it off Vodafone or Sky who have a lot of the home broadband market nowadays and I do have 4g or 3g options from all mobile providers where I am. Many households will stay with mobile because it is very cheap, even if it is basically unusable in the evening and weekends when the students are home. :)(
Sky are currently testing on the Eir FTTH network and look to be about to offer it.

2Pack wrote:
I personally don't think the state should commit to anything other than the €1.1bn build cost out to 2022 and after that Denis O'Brien and his mates in the bidding consortium had better carry their own risk if they are in any way competent at all. :(
Actavo is just one sub-contractor which will carry out the work for the winning bidder, National Broadband Ireland. Actavo has no equity in the bid.


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:46 am 
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a quick spot of inflation and now over €3bn

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... 3?mode=amp

Quote:
There are growing fears at the highest level of Government about the escalating costs of the National Broadband Plan, now estimated at some €3 billion, and officials are working on “plan B” in case the entire process collapses, The Irish Times has learned.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:32 am 
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How far away is the technology to get decent and reliable broadband from the sky or via masts? Are we about to invest billions in a system that will be redundant in less than 10 years?
Any techie heads here able to clarify?


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:29 am 
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FreeFallin wrote:
How far away is the technology to get decent and reliable broadband from the sky or via masts? Are we about to invest billions in a system that will be redundant in less than 10 years?
Any techie heads here able to clarify?


Fibre is the future, wireless is the needed infill for when you are out and about, the sky (or satellite) is pure snakeoil.

Fibre can never be obsolete as it can be upgraded by swapping the optics at each end pretty much ad infinitum. Spectrum will always be limited and spectrum expansion in recent years has mainly been about robbing TV spectrum off RTE.

The fastest fibres actually deployed in Ireland today carry 13 Terabits, that is 13,000 Gigabits, each.

A single fibre has more capacity, now and using cheap optical gear, than the largest satellite ever built to supply broadband. The choice in the short medium and long term is fibre, fibre or fibre. If your mobile mast does not have fibre (that is most of them in Ireland today) then it congests brutally every evening and especially if you are a customer of 3 who overload their network to a crazy degree.

4G cannot handle congestion issues, 5G is pure snakeoil with all sorts of BS claims being made. :)

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:21 am 
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But after 5G, there will be 6G in 5 or so years. And on and on.
Surely the technology will advance to give decent broadband through the air?


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:22 am 
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"Donutting" the population centers. How is/was that allowed?


How it's done in the UK...

The farmer who built her own broadband
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37974267

IMHO we need a proper broadband strategy and rules to allow that to happen. Forget about the "plan", Gov should use this rule book + carrot/stick.


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:34 am 
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the technology is there for fiber broadband, its been around and tested for before those of us under-45 have been born.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:52 am 
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2Pack wrote:
If your mobile mast does not have fibre (that is most of them in Ireland today) then it congests brutally every evening and especially if you are a customer of 3 who overload their network to a crazy degree.

4G cannot handle congestion issues, 5G is pure snakeoil with all sorts of BS claims being made. :)

But most of the arguing about rural broadband is in areas where there won't be any congestion because the population density is so low.

That said, I don't really understand how it's economic to deliver a mains electricity connection (dangerous high voltage) but not a simple data fibre. And on that subject, I have an ESB cable running over my back garden on poles, and next year they're going to sling a fibre along it too. Presumably part of the issue here is that investment by small broadband providers isn't going to happen when they're operating in the kill zone of the likes of ESB.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:00 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
2Pack wrote:
If your mobile mast does not have fibre (that is most of them in Ireland today) then it congests brutally every evening and especially if you are a customer of 3 who overload their network to a crazy degree.

4G cannot handle congestion issues, 5G is pure snakeoil with all sorts of BS claims being made. :)

But most of the arguing about rural broadband is in areas where there won't be any congestion because the population density is so low.


A misconception. Of the 540,000 premises in the National Broadband plan the majority are in or very near an urban or semi urban area and less than half are in sticksville.

In County Dublin alone, there are 10,022 premises deemed to be 'so rural' that they are included in the National Broadband Plan. My brother, who lives inside the Galway City Boundary, is in the National Broadband plan and he can see a fibre on a pole outside when he stands at his front door.

Rural County Dublin is far too densely populated for any wireless solution...plus it is very flat in parts and some cunt went and planted a line of trees in the way. :)

Quote:
That said, I don't really understand how it's economic to deliver a mains electricity connection (dangerous high voltage) but not a simple data fibre. And on that subject, I have an ESB cable running over my back garden on poles, and next year they're going to sling a fibre along it too.


But they are not going to give you the option of obtaining a fibre based service from that fibre.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:15 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
It would seem that

1. Based on a 25% takeup within 3 years
2. 45% takeup within 10 years
3. 60% takeup at peak, 15-20 years hence.

The National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2.5bn in taxpayer subsidies by the time the contract expires in 25 or 30 years time.

At least these are the numbers shared with me today. Of the €2.5bn a full €1.1bn will be payable by 2022 and the rest as 'availability payments' over the lifetime of the contract. You could therefore argue that €1.1bn will be capital expenditure and €1.4bn will be current expenditure over 20 years. The current expenditure is frontloaded into the 2020s too.

Lest anyone query the takeup, the existing eir rural fibre rollout which focuses on more affluent rural areas and which now passes around 200,000 premises has a takeup of around 20% and a blended availability of 1 year (IE the average premises passed by this network has been able to order for a nominal year, some for longer and some more recently).

In my area it is around 30% takeup but you cannot order it off Vodafone or Sky who have a lot of the home broadband market nowadays and I do have 4g or 3g options from all mobile providers where I am. Many households will stay with mobile because it is very cheap, even if it is basically unusable in the evening and weekends when the students are home. :)

I personally don't think the state should commit to anything other than the €1.1bn build cost out to 2022 and after that Denis O'Brien and his mates in the bidding consortium had better carry their own risk if they are in any way competent at all. :(


I am a bit confused. My 20 euro a month mobile dataplan in Ireland (uncapped) provides a noticeably higher bandwidth in some very deep rural places in Ireland than my $40 a month mobile dataplan (capped) in most parts of San Francisco. And the moment you leave the City, forget it. So even if you are trying to stream 1080p video unless you are up a mountain somewhere or very very deep into the back of beyond my experience of mobile broadband in Ireland is that is more than adequate for any tradition (non business) PC broadband access. And even for business access unless you are serving multiple high res video streams I really cannot see you maxing out most 4G coverage in Ireland. And if you are doing that then co location close to a backbone makes a lot more sense.

So unless there is a capacity problem at the cell towers or a problem with bandwidth / active supported clients per tower it sounds like just another boondoggle. I have seen some capacity problems in Ireland at certain times of the day and in certain locations but on the whole its has very rarely caused problems. In a US city like SF these problems are a given. Anything close to theoretical max bandwidth is very rare. The default is heavy load and very bursty performance. I have watched a live 720p stream of the morning news from a LA TV station while on a DART with no noticeable artifacts whereas the same feat on, for example, a MUNI streetcar in SF or even on LA Metro Rail, would be quite an achievement.

In Ireland using my phone as my main PC broadband access point for work is completely practical. And very cheap. Something that is not true even in the "most high tech" cities in the US. Unless you want to spend some very serious money. And even then you are often out of luck. Its at best a not very reliable backup to wired broadband. Which is slow and very expensive. But thats another story.


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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:19 pm 
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2Pack wrote:
But they are not going to give you the option of obtaining a fibre based service from that fibre.

Oh no. Sadface!

The ESB dude who was doing the survey said they would run a fibre connection to the house, but maybe he was just saying that so I wouldn't unleash my chihuahuas on him.

Is this (fibre-to-the-building) not what SIRO is about?

https://siro.ie/more-about-siro/

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:22 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:

The ESB dude who was doing the survey said they would run a fibre connection to the house, but maybe he was just saying that so I wouldn't unleash my chihuahuas on him.

Is this (fibre-to-the-building) not what SIRO is about?

https://siro.ie/more-about-siro/


Yes and no. ESB Fibre can be 'town to town' or ELSE it is SIRO which is urban FTTH...to the premises.

If you are in a rural area it is likely that the fibre they run will not be available to you while if you are in an urban area or on an urban fringe it should be available to you if your town is listed on the SIRO site.

JMC wrote:
I am a bit confused. My 20 euro a month mobile dataplan in Ireland (uncapped) provides a noticeably higher bandwidth in some very deep rural places in Ireland than my $40 a month mobile dataplan (capped) in most parts of San Francisco.


There are "some" areas where it stonks. I live relatively near Galway and once the students get home in the evening the 3 4G goes to hell on a handcart. If I lived out in the wilds of Connemara the students might not come home every evening and the degradation would then be less.

3 4G tests at 50mbits+ in the daytime and less than 10mbits in the evening at my gaff, I have a 4 bar signal at all times at home (day or night) so christ knows what some poor gom with his 1 bar coverage gets a mile away. :)

My 1Gbit fibre connection, OTOH, never degrades and I ping servers in Dublin at 8ms day or night.

c::\Users\3Pack>ping rte.ie -t

Pinging rte.ie [104.18.163.29] with 32 bytes of data:
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=17ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=8ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=12ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=7ms TTL=57
Reply from 104.18.163.29: bytes=32 time=11ms TTL=57

Ping statistics for 104.18.163.29:
Packets: Sent = 15, Received = 15, Lost = 0 (0% loss),
Approximate round trip times in milli-seconds:
Minimum = 7ms, Maximum = 17ms, Average = 8ms

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:58 pm 
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Yeah, the FTTH is the dogs bollocks, despite the Eir DNS massacre last week.
It is incredibly consistent and the good upload speed means google can capture all my data without slowing me down.

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 Post subject: Re: National Broadband Plan will cost the taxpayer over €2bn
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:33 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
Yeah, the FTTH is the dogs bollocks

SIRO FTTH is equally good. If you add up all the premises passed by FTTH in Ireland around 400,000 out of the total of 2.5m premises in Ireland are now covered, by the 2 FTTH operators, Eir and SIRO and their coverage is increasing at well over 10,000 a month now. FTTH will hit 20% national coverage next year. After that milestone I personally expect a significant slowdown in the Eir and SIRO rollouts whether the NBP happens or not. Virgin have a tiny FTTH rollout too, I mean tiny. perhaps 10,000 premises in pockets here and there.

HOWEVER these FTTH networks are not available in the main cities except for smidge of SIRO in Limerick and a smidge of eir in Dublin. It is only available in tier 2-3 towns and in villages and in rural areas.

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