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 Post subject: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:13 pm 
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Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built - ESRI

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/11 ... 3-housing/

Quote:
The Economic and Social Research Institute says the low level of unemployment in Ireland means solving the housing shortage will require large numbers of immigrant building workers.

It also says a large increase in housing output will require a large increase in bank lending to construction firms and house buyers, to levels not seen since 2008.


Import more people while there is already a shortage of accommodation!

They must be bonkers! XD

But then again "growth" and all tricks required to achieve it, are non-negotiable.

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:36 pm 
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Seems fairly obvious.

Construction labour market is very tight.

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:04 pm 
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If London construction stalls it'll be English voices we'll be hearing on Irish construction sites!

Let's all chip in an buy a premises to turn into a Queen Vic like in eastenders with natty carpets and hostile bar staff! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:06 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
Seems fairly obvious.

Construction labour market is very tight.

Wages, simple


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:56 pm 
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dolanbaker wrote:
Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built - ESRI

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/11 ... 3-housing/

Quote:
The Economic and Social Research Institute says the low level of unemployment in Ireland means solving the housing shortage will require large numbers of immigrant building workers.

It also says a large increase in housing output will require a large increase in bank lending to construction firms and house buyers, to levels not seen since 2008.


Import more people while there is already a shortage of accommodation!

They must be bonkers! XD

But then again "growth" and all tricks required to achieve it, are non-negotiable.

This is a real déjà vu; and don't be fooled by the title of the IT article which "ruled out" open door immigration; the opposite was the case:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/harney-rules-out-open-door-to-immigrants-1.261884
Quote:
Ms Harney said the aim of the new programmewas to support the Government's existing policy of seeking some 200,000 new workers in the lifetime of the National Development Plan, which runs until 2006.

Proof, if proof was needed that FG has no vision that is the slightest bit different from FF.


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:34 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Seems fairly obvious.

Construction labour market is very tight.

Wages, simple


1000% correct. Same in hospitality and has been for years, I worked in a hotel about 10 years ago and the pay and attitude to staff is contemptuous yet there are regular media articles about how hard it is to find staff and how nobody Irish want to be e.g. a chef. 2 things needed - cut out split shifts and bump pay.


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 7:36 am 
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Surely it makes sense to import less people from abroad so that rents and prices decrease while at the same time freeing up units over time?

Or is that just complete fucking lunacy?

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:30 am 
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We need immigrants to build for the immigrants coming to build for the immigrants coming to build.

2004 is calling.


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:17 am 
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The effect of constrained labour supply is wage inflation followed by reduced marginal demand.

In other words, less housing is produced.

Presumably the socialists on this thread would cheer this on as a win for labour over capital. Solidarity komrades! We will beat the bourgeoisie!

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:19 am 
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dolanbaker wrote:
Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built - ESRI

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/11 ... 3-housing/

Quote:
The Economic and Social Research Institute says the low level of unemployment in Ireland means solving the housing shortage will require large numbers of immigrant building workers.

It also says a large increase in housing output will require a large increase in bank lending to construction firms and house buyers, to levels not seen since 2008.


Import more people while there is already a shortage of accommodation!

They must be bonkers! XD

But then again "growth" and all tricks required to achieve it, are non-negotiable.

An elderly person said to me yesterday in relation to the above "It's a right mess."

I thought it summed up the situation very accurately.


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:25 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
We need immigrants to build for the immigrants coming to build for the immigrants coming to build.

2004 is calling.

I guess the figure we need to keep an eye on then is the percentage of the direct and ancillary labour engaged in construction. Wasn't it something like 15% direct and 22% with supporting services involved back in 04-06?

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:00 pm 
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catbear wrote:
mr_anderson wrote:
We need immigrants to build for the immigrants coming to build for the immigrants coming to build.

2004 is calling.

I guess the figure we need to keep an eye on then is the percentage of the direct and ancillary labour engaged in construction. Wasn't it something like 15% direct and 22% with supporting services involved back in 04-06?

Number of dwelling completions is probably a good proxy for the residential bit, given that construction is consistently labour intensive.

We're currently at 20k/year.

The numbers from the last "boom":

2000 49,812
2001 52,602
2002 57,695
2003 68,819
2004 76,954
2005 85,957
2006 88,419
2007 78,027
2008 51,724

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:05 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
catbear wrote:
mr_anderson wrote:
We need immigrants to build for the immigrants coming to build for the immigrants coming to build.

2004 is calling.

I guess the figure we need to keep an eye on then is the percentage of the direct and ancillary labour engaged in construction. Wasn't it something like 15% direct and 22% with supporting services involved back in 04-06?

Number of dwelling completions is probably a good proxy for the residential bit, given that construction is consistently labour intensive.

We're currently at 20k/year.

The numbers from the last "boom":

2000 49,812
2001 52,602
2002 57,695
2003 68,819
2004 76,954
2005 85,957
2006 88,419
2007 78,027
2008 51,724


Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

In reality it will be more complex than this but let's assume we build to natural and artificial created demand, what's the aggregate demand expect total for the next 22 years?

Are we on target?

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:08 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:22 pm 
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Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?


Are you playing with Vernes machine again! :)

... but seriously, you are right or are you?

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