Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 23 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:45 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 5365
Open Window wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?


Are you playing with Vernes machine again! :)

... but seriously, you are right or are you?

Ireland's fertility rate is at replacement level, but life expectancy is increasing, so barring mass exodus there will be a significant increase in indigenous population by 2040.

I don't think Leo really cares what colour the proles are. The way I read the 2040 plan it was more a signal to the civil service to pull its finger out with services and housing, plus a signal to FDI to pile cos there's going to be sustained demand, plus Leo granting himself a license to go nuts with pro-cyclical spending. It's the same old McCreevy shite with better spin.

_________________
"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
Tyrion Lannister


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:22 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3696
Location: Bogtrotterland!
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all, so it's either already arrived migrants who breed like rabbits, returning Irish or more migrants.
Cloning is probably not an option!

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:30 pm 
Offline
Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 5365
dolanbaker wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all

That may seem obviously true, but in reality that's just not how it works. :D

There are lots of factors involved, but here's one example, unrealistic but simple to understand.

Consider a society of perfectly fertile couples that has culled everyone over 40, and where everyone dies at age 80. A fertility rate of 2.0 would mean that every couple replaces itself. But nobody will die for another 40 years, so the population increases every year.

_________________
"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
Tyrion Lannister


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:37 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3609
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
Eschatologist wrote:
That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

640k - 1.1m population increase by 2030
about 450k through immigration at the high end scenario with the rest of the 1.1m to come from people living longer and increased fertility rates

https://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopi ... 5&p=927856


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:40 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3696
Location: Bogtrotterland!
Eschatologist wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all

That may seem obviously true, but in reality that's just not how it works. :D

There are lots of factors involved, but here's one example, unrealistic but simple to understand.

Consider a society of perfectly fertile couples that has culled everyone over 40, and where everyone dies at age 80. A fertility rate of 2.0 would mean that every couple replaces itself. But nobody will die for another 40 years, so the population increases every year.

The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:28 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Dec 2, 2013
Posts: 2690
Many immigrants needed if urgently required Spar shops and Burger Kings to be staffed.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:09 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: May 12, 2012
Posts: 2118
dolanbaker wrote:
The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.


You have to get married to have children these days? :o :o :o


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:58 pm 
Offline
Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3696
Location: Bogtrotterland!
Skippy 3 wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.


You have to get married to have children these days? :o :o :o

:lol:
Not all married couples have children and neither do all co-habiting couples.
But there are a small minority who just plenty of kids, usually one per boyfriend while having many boyfriends. 8-

_________________
"Democracy is like sausage, you want it, but you don't want to know how it is made". [John Godfrey Saxe]
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated": Elon Musk


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 23 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Click for Latest Posts LATEST POSTS Click for Forum List FORUMS   

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster

  

Pyramid Built, Is Better Built!