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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:45 pm 
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Open Window wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?


Are you playing with Vernes machine again! :)

... but seriously, you are right or are you?

Ireland's fertility rate is at replacement level, but life expectancy is increasing, so barring mass exodus there will be a significant increase in indigenous population by 2040.

I don't think Leo really cares what colour the proles are. The way I read the 2040 plan it was more a signal to the civil service to pull its finger out with services and housing, plus a signal to FDI to pile cos there's going to be sustained demand, plus Leo granting himself a license to go nuts with pro-cyclical spending. It's the same old McCreevy shite with better spin.

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:22 pm 
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Joined: Aug 23, 2008
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Location: Bogtrotterland!
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all, so it's either already arrived migrants who breed like rabbits, returning Irish or more migrants.
Cloning is probably not an option!

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:30 pm 
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Posts: 5520
dolanbaker wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all

That may seem obviously true, but in reality that's just not how it works. :D

There are lots of factors involved, but here's one example, unrealistic but simple to understand.

Consider a society of perfectly fertile couples that has culled everyone over 40, and where everyone dies at age 80. A fertility rate of 2.0 would mean that every couple replaces itself. But nobody will die for another 40 years, so the population increases every year.

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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:37 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
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Location: Cathair na dTreabh
Eschatologist wrote:
That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

640k - 1.1m population increase by 2030
about 450k through immigration at the high end scenario with the rest of the 1.1m to come from people living longer and increased fertility rates

https://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopi ... 5&p=927856


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:40 pm 
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Joined: Aug 23, 2008
Posts: 3780
Location: Bogtrotterland!
Eschatologist wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
Eschatologist wrote:
Open Window wrote:
Leo Varadkar and his government virtually guarantee at least 1 million migrants by 2040, that's 45,500K or so a year.

That was the net increase in population, not migrants. Where did you get that from?

Well assuming that the Average native family has two children, they are not going to increase the population at all

That may seem obviously true, but in reality that's just not how it works. :D

There are lots of factors involved, but here's one example, unrealistic but simple to understand.

Consider a society of perfectly fertile couples that has culled everyone over 40, and where everyone dies at age 80. A fertility rate of 2.0 would mean that every couple replaces itself. But nobody will die for another 40 years, so the population increases every year.

The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.

_________________
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence, and anyone who can read without moving his lips should know it by now: Brooks Stevens.
Planned obsolescence, one of the largest contributors to the man made element of climate change, but the one least discussed: dolanbaker
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 11:28 am 
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Joined: Dec 2, 2013
Posts: 2765
Many immigrants needed if urgently required Spar shops and Burger Kings to be staffed.


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:09 pm 
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Posts: 2187
dolanbaker wrote:
The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.


You have to get married to have children these days? :o :o :o


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 Post subject: Re: Many immigrant workers needed if more houses to be built
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:58 pm 
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Location: Bogtrotterland!
Skippy 3 wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:
The natives are below replacement rates simply because not all people get married and the vast majority who do only have two children, life expectancy has improved, but not so rapidly that the older are not dying off.


You have to get married to have children these days? :o :o :o

:lol:
Not all married couples have children and neither do all co-habiting couples.
But there are a small minority who just plenty of kids, usually one per boyfriend while having many boyfriends. 8-

_________________
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence, and anyone who can read without moving his lips should know it by now: Brooks Stevens.
Planned obsolescence, one of the largest contributors to the man made element of climate change, but the one least discussed: dolanbaker
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild


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