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 Post subject: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama chief
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:14 am 
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House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama chief - Sarah McCabe -> http://www.independent.ie/business/pers ... 02178.html

Quote:
We can't get builders in because prices are too low, says McDonagh

NAMA chief executive Brendan McDonagh has blamed the shortage of housing in Dublin on low prices, despite massive gains in property prices in the capital over the past year.
Dublin house prices are still not high enough to attract new builders, he said, even though July figures from the Central Statistics Office showed a 23pc rise in prices across the county.
Mr McDonagh said Dublin house prices still only barely exceed the cost of building, but prices will continue to rise, he added.

there is more


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:31 am 
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And there you have it, if ever there was an article that states 'the game is rigged to squeezs more tax out of every brick an to hell with doing the right thing' this is it.
What was the overall tax take per property during the celtic pussy 47% or 57% and what is it now? Jay*** H, I despair of this place.

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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:14 am 
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What normally happens is that the banks repossess and sell property in arrears.
The market shoots down, until this stock clears.
Only after, does the market recover.
But at least it is on firm ground where demand equals genuine supply.

His admission regarding market manipulation outlines the achilles heel of this 'recovery', along with the entire raison d'etre of NAMA.
Artificially restricting supply in an effort to force prices up and promote construction whilst ignoring the arrears inventory.

I have mentioned this numerous times here, were I a builder, it is not prices which provide most concern, but the build-up of unsold inventory from the sidelines.


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:08 am 
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Words cannot describe how angry I feel after reading that article. So NAMA builders cannot make a profit on building when 2006 site costs are included? So the solution is to call in the loans, enforce your security and bring in real builders eg plc's from the UK to develop the sites. Any upside goes back to the tax payer and the home buyer pays a fair price. Everyone is a winner except for the cowboy builder. Oh wait, that wouldn't be right, would it? XX


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:15 am 
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mr_anderson wrote:
We can't get builders in because prices are too low, says McDonagh

The average new build property price in the North of England was 157k (€195k) in 2012.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globa ... prices.pdf

That comprised: Terraced (27%), Semi Detached (25%), Detached (30%), Flats (18%), and obviously includes land and construction costs, fees, levies, taxes etc.

From the Daft Q2 2014 Sale Report, the unweighted average of 3-bed semi-D asking prices across Dublin is €304k, and for 2-bed terraced in €207k.

So despite having plenty of land available around Dublin (see Google maps satellite view), and (presumably) significant labour market slack in the construction industry, we've still managed to produce housing more expensively that our nearest neighbour (culturally , economically and geographically) despite them still being in the grip of a decades-long housing boom founded on extreme land use restrictions and a psychotic attachment to owning piles of bricks.

It's impossible to escape the conclusion that the "prices are too low to support new construction" meme is (even if true) not some factor of inescapable costs intrinsic to the process of building new houses, but a set of conditions deliberately engineered and sustained by the government and state agencies.

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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:25 am 
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Eschatologist wrote:
mr_anderson wrote:
We can't get builders in because prices are too low, says McDonagh

The average new build property price in the North of England was 157k (€195k) in 2012.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globa ... prices.pdf

That comprised: Terraced (27%), Semi Detached (25%), Detached (30%), Flats (18%), and obviously includes land and construction costs, fees, levies, taxes etc.

From the Daft Q2 2014 Sale Report, the unweighted average of 3-bed semi-D asking prices across Dublin is €304k, and for 2-bed terraced in €207k.

So despite having plenty of land available around Dublin (see Google maps satellite view), and (presumably) significant labour market slack in the construction industry, we've still managed to produce housing more expensively that our nearest neighbour (culturally , economically and geographically) despite them still being in the grip of a decades-long housing boom founded on extreme land use restrictions and a psychotic attachment to owning piles of bricks.

It's impossible to escape the conclusion that the "prices are too low to support new construction" meme is (even if true) not some factor of inescapable costs intrinsic to the process of building new houses, but a set of conditions deliberately engineered and sustained by the government and state agencies.



Hello, I'd like to buy some land.
To build a house?
Yes, to build a house.
Well I'm sorry sorry there's none of that left. All we can offer is a small parcel of cloud cuckoo land.
Why do you call it cuckoo land?
Because we need it to cuckoo the books.


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:33 am 
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Eschatologist wrote:
The average new build property price in the North of England was 157k (€195k) in 2012.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globa ... prices.pdf

That comprised: Terraced (27%), Semi Detached (25%), Detached (30%), Flats (18%), and obviously includes land and construction costs, fees, levies, taxes etc.

From the Daft Q2 2014 Sale Report, the unweighted average of 3-bed semi-D asking prices across Dublin is €304k, and for 2-bed terraced in €207k.

So despite having plenty of land available around Dublin (see Google maps satellite view), and (presumably) significant labour market slack in the construction industry, we've still managed to produce housing more expensively that our nearest neighbour (culturally , economically and geographically) despite them still being in the grip of a decades-long housing boom founded on extreme land use restrictions and a psychotic attachment to owning piles of bricks.

It's impossible to escape the conclusion that the "prices are too low to support new construction" meme is (even if true) not some factor of inescapable costs intrinsic to the process of building new houses, but a set of conditions deliberately engineered and sustained by the government and state agencies.

Good post. I wonder how the fixed hourly rates for workers in the building trade compare to those in the UK, and how many people they are keeping on the dole here right now?

UK figures:

Quote:
Job National Hourly Rate Data

Carpenter £11.07
Bricklayer £10.47
Joiner £10.49
Construction Laborer £7.90
Construction Foreman £13.03
Electrician £11.55
Project Manager, Construction £18.14

All compensation data shown are the gross, national median (50th percentile). Pay can vary greatly by location. To view local data, take the PayScale survey.

From here. Anyone have comparable Irish numbers to hand?


Last edited by Barney Gumble on Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:38 am 
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Was there any mention in the article about reducing build costs ? :x

Even a whisper about the 13.5% VAT ?

It's almost as if construction isn't about building homes, but of tax revenue generation.


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:59 am 
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Speechless reading this, as if we needed to be kicked when down. This article epitomises this dis-ingeniousness that plaques the nation. This will end very badly and those who made money from it and benefited the most (the political class and their rodent cabal) will be long gone when the Ponzi comes tumbling to its inevitable and sorry conclusion. A slow motion tragedy :(


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:12 am 
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mr_anderson wrote:
I have mentioned this numerous times here, were I a builder, it is not prices which provide most concern, but the build-up of unsold inventory from the sidelines.


SBP reports up to 1600 BTL repossessed houses and apartments coming to market courtesy of AIB and BOI.
Not to mention all the section 23 tax relief properties that are expiring, amateur BTL will want to exit the market since the rental return is no longer there for most and all those interest only mortgages have to be repaid.


Last edited by BoyRacer on Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:17 am 
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BoyRacer wrote:
mr_anderson wrote:
I have mentioned this numerous times here, were I a builder, it is not prices which provide most concern, but the build-up of unsold inventory from the sidelines.


SBP reports up to 1600 BTL repossessed houses and apartments coming to market courtesy of AIB and BOI.



Yup, saw that.
Tiz the beginning.
Loads more to come.


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:51 am 
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Assuming these properties do actually make it to the market, would most not be from outside Dublin (hence having little impact on Dublin prices)?


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:55 am 
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NAMA doesn't want to go gently into that good night.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ne ... 02918.html
Quote:
'Bad bank' to take the lead in new homes plan
Cabinet considering new role for Nama as property developer
Published 21/09/2014
John Drennan and Ronald Quinlan

Talks are under way at the highest level within Government on a new plan that could see Nama being put in charge of delivering a massive house-building programme aimed at addressing the deepening housing crisis.

The Sunday Independent has learned that Taoiseach Enda Kenny has discussed the matter with Tanaiste Joan Burton, Finance Minister Michael Noonan and Public Spending Minister Brendan Howlin in the course of meetings of the powerful Economic Management Council.

.....

Commenting on the proposed new direction for Nama, a senior government source told the Sunday Independent: "We haven't been able
to find a workable model to raise the finance for social housing. It's a plan that involves investment in the billions, which the Government cannot borrow.

"Now the light bulb is going off in everyone's head. Nama is available; and it's off balance sheet so the Europeans can't give out."

.....

When asked if Nama could possibly be converted into a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for the construction of such units, another source said Mr Daly smiled before saying that this was not a matter for him to decide.

.....(cont'd)


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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:57 am 
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Barney Gumble wrote:
Anyone have comparable Irish numbers to hand?

Taking the three common categories from Payscale.com and using 1.26 as the exchange rate:

UK/Ireland
Carpenter: €13.95/€15.38
Construction Laborer: €9.95/€9.83
Construction Foreman: €16.42/€16.62

Not substantially different. Haven't done regional comparison.

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 Post subject: Re: House price rises needed to ease homes shortage: Nama ch
PostPosted: Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:58 am 
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I'll give FG this, they did what took FF over a decade to do in less time. The Hall of Infamy is going to need a new wing.

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