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 Post subject: The Final Countdown - Speculation on Irish bailout EU/IMF
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 12:29 pm 
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From FTAlphaville Markets Live:
Quote:
NH
Before we move on to stock stuff
NH
we should just have a quick trip across the Irish sea
NH
all sorts of rumours flying around this morning
NH
and the 10-year bond is now yielding well over 8%
BE
Rumours of what exactly?
NH
well, this is RAW
RAW is market chatter - information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels (PRs etc). The story might be complete rubbish, but if we believe there is some substance to it we will say so. Either way, Reader Beware.
NH
totally speculative
NH
probably made up
NH
etc
NH
but this
NH
ONLY RUMOUR SO FAR: hearing talk of possible IMF DEAL for Ireland here
NH
As I say
NH
we have no reason to believe this
NH
but it is going around
BE
Yes - best make that very clear. This is just noise.
NH
white noise
BE
And where's the CDS standing?
NH
hang on
NH
let's get some prices
NH
11:15 10Nov10 RTRS-IRISH/GERMAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD SPREAD HITS EURO LIFE HIGH OF 592 BPS
NH
RTRS-IRISH C.BANK GOVERNOR HONOHAN SAYS GOVT IS PUTTING TOGETHER SORT OF POLICY PACKAGE THAT IMF WOULD LIKE TO SEE
10:48 10Nov10 RTRS-IRISH C.BANK GOVERNOR HONOHAN SAYS EXTERNAL HELP WLD NOT FORCE SHIFT IN POLICY
10:50 10Nov10 RTRS-IRISH C.BANK GOVERNOR SAYS OVERALL STRUCTURE OF FISCAL POLICY SEEMS EXACTLY RIGHT TO GET FINANCES CREDIBLY BACK
10:53 10Nov10 RTRS-IRISH C.BANK GOVERNOR SAYS DOES NOT SEE ANY CHANGE IN POLICY TO CURTAIL IRISH BANKS' EXTENSIVE USE OF ECB LIQUIDITY
10:56 10Nov10 RTRS-IRISH C.BANK GOVERNOR SAYS ECB BUYING OF BONDS NOT INTENDED AS A LIQUIDITY OPERATION
10:57 10Nov10 RTRS-IRISH C.BANK GOVERNOR SAYS DOES NOT THINK IRELAND'S 12.5 PCT CORPORATE TAX WILL BE OF INTEREST TO IMF
NH
some interesting comments there
NH
RTRS-EU COMMISSION SAYS APPROVES EXTENSION OF IRISH BANKS GUARANTEES TO JUNE 30, 2011
11:04 10Nov10 RTRS-EU COMMISSION SAYS BANK GUARANTEES ARE "ADEQUATE MEANS TO REMEDY A SERIOUS DISTURBANCE IN THE IRISH ECONOMY"
NH
all in all
NH
it looks pretty bleak
NH
and the 10-year yield has almost gone parabolic

(Link when it is available)

Following on from Neil Hume's twitter http://twitter.com/humenm

I agree that this is probably made up and for the following reasons:
1. An EU/EFSF deal is likely to be the first step with the IMF in the background.
2. Even if there is a plan (which is likely), the timing is off. An actual fail in the bond markets would be required first.
3. There's lots of made up stuff to talk books...

Why is this still important?
We are heading Greek style (higher yields permanently closing the open market), so it doesn't surprise that some sort of bailout is being planned for. Still, the rumours are usually before the action has even started, so there's an element of reflexivity - i.e. the rumours may be causal rather than just reflective.

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 12:33 pm 
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From FTAlphaville comments:
Quote:
1:27am LorcanRK:
Who need the IMF when our own central bank govenor comes out with stuff like this : From Reuters: "IRISH C.BANK GOV HONOHAN SAYS GOVT IS PUTTING TOGETHER SORT OF POLICY PACKAGE THAT IMF WOULD LIKE TO SEE"


There is a feeling in some quarters that Mr. Honohan's comments have been misinterpreted...

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 12:42 pm 
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:shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:56 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
From FTAlphaville comments:
Quote:
1:27am LorcanRK:
Who need the IMF when our own central bank govenor comes out with stuff like this : From Reuters: "IRISH C.BANK GOV HONOHAN SAYS GOVT IS PUTTING TOGETHER SORT OF POLICY PACKAGE THAT IMF WOULD LIKE TO SEE"


There is a feeling in some quarters that Mr. Honohan's comments have been misinterpreted...


In the minefield that is Irish politics amidst the greatest shitstorm ever to land on these shores, are you seriously suggesting the CBGov didnt think twice about what he was saying?

If that is the case, the guy needs to go. Now.


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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:06 pm 
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needle wrote:
In the minefield that is Irish politics amidst the greatest shitstorm ever to land on these shores, are you seriously suggesting the CBGov didnt think twice about what he was saying?

If that is the case, the guy needs to go. Now.

No, I am saying that by Mr. Honohan saying that "the IMF would do nothing different than the current policy" he is saying that we are being as austerian as we can be, so calling for their intervention is not going to change much if anything in policy terms. If you see this as being an IMF plan for Ireland on standby, then you are misinterpreting the remarks.

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:09 pm 
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Calm.the.fuck.down.everyone.

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:21 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
No, I am saying that by Mr. Honohan saying that "the IMF would do nothing different than the current policy" he is saying that we are being as austerian as we can be, so calling for their intervention is not going to change much if anything in policy terms. If you see this as being an IMF plan for Ireland on standby, then you are misinterpreting the remarks.


Thats exactly how I read the comments.
No panic (yet :wink: ).


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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 3:47 pm 
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Hold on a minute two things

1: The ECB are buying Irish bonds already so technically we are already in bailout mode
2: The ECB will never allow one of the member states access IMF loans when it can look after it itself - there is no saying it would do it any differently than the IMF, and there is no saying they wouldn't send one of their lads over ( say Monday and Tuesday of this week ) to oversee the budget to insure it makes the cuts - so why so afraid on the IMF, they may as well be here and the ECB already are no ?


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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 4:01 pm 
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Quote:
14:57 *LENIHAN SAYS IRELAND PLANS TO RETURN TO BOND MKT IN 2011


I think the question is does the bond market plan to return to Ireland?

Quote:
14:57 IRELAND'S HONOHAN ADDRESSES IRISH PARLIAMENT COMMITTEE
14:56 *LENIHAN SAYS IRELAND NOT SOUGHT HELP FROM EU/IMF FUND
14:52 *ECB'S HONOHAN MADE REMARKS AT IRISH PARLIAMENT IN DUBLIN TODAY
14:52 *HONOHAN SAYS GERMAN PROPOSAL MAY HAVE DESTABILIZED MARKETS
14:52 *HONOHAN SAYS GERMAN BOND PROPOSAL MAY BE ONE FOR THE FUTURE
14:50 *EUROPEAN STOCKS EXTEND LOSSES; STOXX 600 FALLS 0.5%
14:50 *HONOHAN: ARREARS DATA DON'T SUGGEST EXCEEDED STRESS LEVELS
14:47 *HONOHAN: COSTS ARE `CLEARLY NOT UNMANAGEABLE'
14:47 *HONOHAN: MKTS CONCERNED BANK PROBLEMS NOT OVER
14:46 *HONOHAN: `MANAGEABLE' COSTS REFERS TO OVERALL FISCAL PROGRAM
14:46 *IRELAND'S HONOHAN SAYS BALANCE SHEETS ARE `STRESSED'
14:43 *HONOHAN SAYS SOVEREIGN CONCERNS WEIGHING ON BANKS
14:42 *GREEK 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD TO BUNDS WIDENS TO 900 BASIS POINTS
14:41 *HONOHAN SAYS BANK RECAP COSTS ARE NOT UNMANAGEBLE
14:40 *IRELAND'S LENIHAN SAYS EU15 BLN CUTS `BEST ASSESSMENT'
14:40 *IRISH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR HONOHAN SPEAKS IN PARLIAMENT
14:39 *IRISH CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR SAYS BANKS HAVE BEEN UNDER PRESSURE


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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 4:09 pm 
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verbatim wrote:
Quote:
14:57 *LENIHAN SAYS IRELAND PLANS TO RETURN TO BOND MKT IN 2011


I think the question is does the bond market plan to return to Ireland?

Quote:
14:57 IRELAND'S HONOHAN ADDRESSES IRISH PARLIAMENT COMMITTEE
14:56 *LENIHAN SAYS IRELAND NOT SOUGHT HELP FROM EU/IMF FUND



Quote:
We don’t expect to be bailed out by anybody as, I think, is perfectly clear we’re doing what needs to be done to bring the deficit down and control the public debt,”


Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... S1Pw.R8lYo


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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:18 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
No, I am saying that by Mr. Honohan saying that "the IMF would do nothing different than the current policy" he is saying that we are being as austerian as we can be, so calling for their intervention is not going to change much if anything in policy terms. If you see this as being an IMF plan for Ireland on standby, then you are misinterpreting the remarks.


Duisigh wrote:
Calm.the.fuck.down.everyone.


viewtopic.php?f=19&t=32750&start=720


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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 10:33 pm 
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http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/20 ... ment-90881
Quote:
# tull mcadoo Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 9:14 pm

Rumours floating in political/journo circles that IMF has offered facility at 5% but with strings attached. Govt reluctant to accept.

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:13 pm 
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I am reversing my view that it is the EFSF that will be called on.

Two reasons:
1. Corporation tax could be a condition for the EFSF.
2. The bondholder haircut mechanism is not yet in place for the EFSF, it functions as a liquidity conduit.

Reason 2 means there's way more debt to come than has been admitted to so far. Perhaps some of the INBS cases have legs. Perhaps the trickle is now a flood from the other banks. Perhaps the promises are being called in early.

Anyway, if it is the IMF, then it is likely because of their bargaining power to impose losses on other european institutions. The knock-on effects elsewhere will be large. The likely medium term result of this is that we will be marginalised in Europe. Anti-terror legislation? They'll be using anti-Christ legislation on us...

As to what it will mean - I think a domestic economy based on IOUs is likely.

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:20 pm 
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A challenge too far for WGU ? Putting Lenny's or Biffo's head on Frankie's body (on video -dont sweat it man) ?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKxMzc6Rig4

(The sub-titles are for Angela)


Last edited by laughinglawyer on Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Speculation on Irish deal with IMF...
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 11:21 pm 
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yoganmahew wrote:
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/11/10/honohan-speech-at-ifss2010-event/#comment-90881
Quote:
# tull mcadoo Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 9:14 pm

Rumours floating in political/journo circles that IMF has offered facility at 5% but with strings attached. Govt reluctant to accept.

So we're still in a position to refuse. That's nice.


Last edited by BertieInExile on Thu Nov 11, 2010 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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